{"id":19498,"date":"2011-02-16T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2011-02-16T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=19498"},"modified":"2011-02-16T08:30:00","modified_gmt":"2011-02-16T13:30:00","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-217","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/02\/16\/forex-daily-market-commentary-217\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Dollar performance was mixed during the Asia session with losses \t\t\tincurred against the euro, while further gains were made versus the \t\t\tyen. EURUSD traded 1.3473-1.3528, USDJPY 83.20-83.56. AUDUSD was \t\t\ttemporarily supported by China’s CPI print, which was more benign \t\t\tthan consensus forecasts. An uneventful BoJ policy announcement had \t\t\tno currency impact. There were no major data releases in the US \t\t\tovernight, but today should be more eventful. Advance retail sales \t\t\tare due and the winter weather in January could make it a more \t\t\tvolatile release. We are looking for +0.1% on the headline release \t\t\tvs. consensus of +0.5%, largely due to bad weather. A disappointing \t\t\theadline print could knock the dollar and Treasury yields lower. But \t\t\tour economists note that even if the data comes in around their \t\t\tlower estimate, their forecast is consistent with total real \t\t\tconsumer spending (including services), staying largely unchanged on \t\t\tthe month.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

A regular monthly meeting of Eurozone finance ministers broke up as \t\t\texpected without any agreement on how Europe’s existing financial \t\t\trescue mechanism might be enhanced over the coming weeks. However, \t\t\tEurogroup president Juncker said agreement had been reached on the \t\t\tsize of the ESM – the permanent mechanism that is due to take over \t\t\tin 2013. Juncker said the EU’s contribution to the ESM would ensure \t\t\tan effective EUR500 bn lending capacity, and said the IMF will make \t\t\tcontributions on top of that. Juncker also said there could be an \t\t\textra Eurogroup meeting on March 21, ahead of the end of month EU \t\t\tleaders summit.
\nThe ECB revealed it had purchased no sovereign bonds under the \t\t\tSecurities Markets Program by Tuesday of last week.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The BoJ kept the policy rate unchanged and continues to target a \t\t\trange of 0-0.1%. No changes were made to any of the asset purchase \t\t\tor lending facilities.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

We expect another above-target CPI print of 4.00% y\/y, in line with \t\t\tconsensus, which could keep BoE rate hiking expectations elevated.
\n CHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

We raise our 3m EURCHF forecast to 1.35 to reflect that Swiss \t\t\toutperformance may be coming to an end as the global economy \t\t\treflates and as the SNB continues to ease rates.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The RBA minutes from the Feb 1 meeting provided little in the way of \t\t\tadditional insight into the policy board’s current thinking. The key \t\t\tmessage was that recent consumer caution and lower than expected CPI \t\t\thave convinced the RBA that it need be in no hurry to hike again. \t\t\tOur Australian economists continue to see the first 2011 policy rate \t\t\thike in August\/September.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURUSD 1.3428 support.
\nEURUSD NEUTRAL Move below 1.3428 would expose 1.3364. Initial \t\t\tresistance at 1.3621.
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Resistance at 83.68 continues to hold; push above the \t\t\tlevel would expose 84.51. Support at 82.71.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH While support at 1.5922 holds, expect recovery \t\t\ttowards 1.6138 and 1.6186.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Break through 0.9776\/84 would expose 0.9852. Support \t\t\tis at 0.9575.
\nAUDUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.0137 and 0.9961 mark the \t\t\tnear-term directional triggers.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Support at 0.9832\/20 zone holds; break through this \t\t\twould expose 0.9712. Near-term resistance at 0.9918.
\nEURCHF BULLISH Clearance of 1.3086 exposes 1.3015. Resistance at \t\t\t1.3206.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Momentum is negative; eyes 0.8389\/77 support zone. \t\t\tNear-term resistance is at 0.8462.
\nEURJPY BULLISH Rise above 113.44 would expose 114.01\/94 resistance \t\t\tarea. Support lies at 112.06.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dollar performance was mixed during the Asia session with losses incurred against the euro, while further gains were made versus the yen. EURUSD traded 1.3473-1.3528, USDJPY 83.20-83.56. AUDUSD was temporarily supported by China’s CPI print, which was more benign than consensus forecasts…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19498","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19498","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19498"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19498\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}