{"id":19028,"date":"2011-02-03T08:32:57","date_gmt":"2011-02-03T13:32:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=19028"},"modified":"2011-02-03T08:32:57","modified_gmt":"2011-02-03T13:32:57","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-208","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/02\/03\/forex-daily-market-commentary-208\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

With much of Asia on holiday, the FX price action was relatively \t\t\tsubdued. The dollar did strengthen marginally on signs of escalation \t\t\tin Egypt which coincided with a general stalling of the risk rally. \t\t\tEURUSD traded 1.3771-1.3817, USDJPY 81.49-81.76. A better ADP print \t\t\talso helped the dollar’s cause earlier, but market participants are \t\t\twary about extrapolating from this reading to Friday’s official \t\t\tnon-farm payrolls report.
\nADP private payrolls for January were +187k (cons. +140k). Our US \t\t\teconomists still forecast a below-consensus gain in Friday’s jobs \t\t\treport. Fed Chairman Bernanke is due to speak on “The Economic \t\t\tOutlook and Macroeconomic Policies.” We think he will have to depart \t\t\tsignificantly from the latest FOMC statement to really affect the \t\t\tdollar but his comments on inflation will be interesting as he \t\t\trecently said the risk of deflation has “receded considerably,” \t\t\twhile the FOMC noted only that “measures of underlying inflation \t\t\thave been trending downward\u201d.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Today’s ECB policy decision is expected to be a non-event and the \t\t\tfocus again falls on President Trichet’s subsequent press \t\t\tconference. Hawkish overtones are expected given the latest Eurozone \t\t\tCPI print for January came in at +2.4% y\/y, which is well above the \t\t\tECB’s target of “below, but close to 2%”. Our European economists do \t\t\tnot expect a policy rate hike until Q4.
\nS&P downgraded Ireland one notch to A-, keeping the rating on watch \t\t\tnegative. However, both Moody’s and Fitch rate the sovereign one \t\t\tnotch lower still.
\nEuropean Council President Van Rompuy said the EU is planning to \t\t\tannounce a comprehensive solution to the sovereign debt crisis by \t\t\tMarch 25 – the scheduled date of the second of two upcoming EU \t\t\tSummits.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

MPC members Charles Bean and Andrew Sentance offered different views \t\t\ton prospective monetary policy. Sentance sounded hawkish as usual, \t\t\tsuggesting that the weak Q4 GDP report released last week should not \t\t\tbe considered too significant and is likely no more than a \t\t\tfluctuation.
\nBean on the other hand seemed in no hurry to hike the policy rate, \t\t\tnoting that the current policy setting is “sensible” given that the \t\t\trecovery is “fragile”. He also forecast that inflation will “come \t\t\tback down towards the target” in the absence of further external \t\t\tshocks.
\nConstruction PMI came in well above consensus at 53.7 for January, \t\t\tsuggesting that activity has bounced back following the adverse \t\t\tweather in December. The more important Services PMI is due today.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURCHF 1.3069 resistance.
\nEURUSD BULLISH Climb through 1.3888\/1.3948 resistance zone would \t\t\texpose 1.4086. Initial support lies at 1.3690.
\nUSDJPY BEARISH Momentum is negative; scope for 80.93 and 80.54 next. \t\t\tResistance at 82.15.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH Move above 1.6299 key high would open up the way \t\t\ttowards 1.6379. Support lies at 1.6128.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.9301; break of the level would leave \t\t\tlittle support till 0.9018. Initial resistance is at 0.9482.
\nAUDUSD BULLISH Recovery found resistance at 1.0149 Fibonacci level; \t\t\tbreak of this would expose 1.0256. Support lies at 0.9964.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Expect losses to target 0.9838\/20 support area. Near \t\t\tterm resistance at 0.9916.
\nEURCHF BULLISH Rise above 1.3002 exposes 1.3069. Support at 1.2873.
\nEURGBP BULLISH Break of 0.8619 would expose 0.8672\/91 resistance \t\t\tzone. Initial support lies at 0.8510.
\nEURJPY BULLISH Need to break through 114.01 to confirm the bull \t\t\ttrend and aim for 114.94 ahead of 115.68. Support lies at 111.28.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With much of Asia on holiday, the FX price action was relatively subdued. The dollar did strengthen marginally on signs of escalation in Egypt which coincided with a general stalling of the risk rally. EURUSD traded 1.3771-1.3817, USDJPY 81.49-81.76.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19028\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}