{"id":18618,"date":"2011-01-25T08:08:20","date_gmt":"2011-01-25T13:08:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=18618"},"modified":"2011-01-25T08:08:20","modified_gmt":"2011-01-25T13:08:20","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-202","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/01\/25\/forex-daily-market-commentary-202\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

A disappointing Australian CPI reading allowed the dollar to advance \t\t\tagainst its Australian counterpart in an otherwise quiet Asia \t\t\ttrading session. The BoJ opted to keep policy unchanged. EURUSD \t\t\ttraded 1.3628-1.3684, and USDJPY 82.34-82.64. The Nikkei-225 is 1.1% \t\t\tfirmer at the time of writing, and the S&P 500 finished +0.58% \t\t\tahead. President Obama is due to deliver his State of the Union \t\t\taddress tonight, a speech in which job creation is expected to \t\t\tfeature prominently. At the margin, this could support the US \t\t\tdollar, but its main drivers this week are more likely to be the \t\t\tFOMC announcement and the Q4 GDP data. Our analysts do not think \t\t\tthat the FOMC statement will suggest a near-term change in monetary \t\t\tpolicy. Both the consensus and our US economists are expecting a \t\t\tstrong rise of 3.5% q\/q annualised rate for Q4 GDP.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Newswires, citing an unnamed Eurozone source, said EU leaders will \t\t\thave an informal discussion on the Eurozone crisis at the Feb. 4 \t\t\tsummit and that formal decisions are expected at the late March \t\t\tsummit.
\nThe ECB settled only \u20ac146 mn worth of bond purchases last week under \t\t\tits Securities Markets Program, down from \u20ac2.313 bn the week before.
\nThe Irish finance minister said the finance bill would pass through \t\t\tparliament by Saturday and the main opposition party said an \t\t\telection is likely in the last week of February. The passage of the \t\t\tfinance bill removes the worry that parliament would be dissolved \t\t\twithout reaching a final agreement on the last piece of budget \t\t\tlegislation.
\nFrench President Sarkozy said that the dominating theme of France’s \t\t\tchairmanship of the G20 would revolve around FX reforms and \t\t\thighlighted a code of conduct on capital controls as one of his \t\t\tgoals.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bank of Japan kept policy unchanged and continues to target a \t\t\t0-0.1% range for the overnight call rate. No additional measures \t\t\twere announced. The bank revised up its CPI forecast for the fiscal \t\t\tyear 2011 to +0.3% y\/y from the earlier estimate of +0.1% y\/y. Our \t\t\tJapan economics team does not anticipate a BoJ hike until 2013.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

BoE MPC member Andrew Sentence maintained his hawkish stance and \t\t\tsaid the BoE risks its credibility by failing to tackle inflation. \t\t\tHe said the time has come for action and he sees CPI rising to at \t\t\tleast 4% during 2011 as it is boosted by global factors, a weaker \t\t\texchange rate and healthy domestic demand. MPC member Posen has \t\t\trecently affirmed his dovish stance, and the Jan. 13 BoE minutes, \t\t\tdue for release on Wednesday, will show if any other MPC member has \t\t\tsided with either of these two non-consensus views.
\nThe consensus expects Q4 GDP to weaken to +0.5% q\/q. A stronger \t\t\tprint is likely to be sterling-positive, as it may stoke \t\t\texpectations of an early BoE hike.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The AUD weakened after CPI for Q4 failed to live up to consensus \t\t\texpectations, rising only +0.4% q\/q (cons. +0.7%) and +2.7% y\/y \t\t\t(cons. +3.0%). Our analysts stick to their view that the next RBA \t\t\trate hike will not happen until H2 this year.
\n CAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The BoC revised down its 2011 core inflation outlook though it still \t\t\tit reaching the 2% target by end-2012. The y\/y readings for both \t\t\theadline and core CPI for December are expected to increase, though \t\t\tany rate hikes by the BoC are expected to be gradual this year.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nUSDCHF clears 0.9521\/0.9486 zone.
\nEURUSD BULLISH While support holds at 1.3541, expect gain towards \t\t\t1.3741\/86 resistance zone ahead of 1.3825.
\nUSDJPY BEARISH Break of 81.85 would open 80.94 while resistance at \t\t\t83.68 holds.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.6059\/94 resistance zone. Initial \t\t\tsupport defined at 1.5838.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Breach of 0.9521\/0.9486 has exposed 0.9415 ahead of \t\t\t0.9301 key low. Initial resistance is at 0.9623.
\nAUDUSD BEARISH Move below 0.9804 would expose 0.9753. Resistance is \t\t\tat 1.0077.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Remains below 1.0034 as focus is on 0.9889\/0.9838 \t\t\tsupport zone.
\nEURCHF BULLISH Bullish outlook with focus on 1.3069 ahead of 1.3122. \t\t\tInitial support is defined at 1.2815.
\nEURGBP BULLISH Break of 0.8563 would open up the way towards 0.8648. \t\t\tInitial support lies at 0.8461.
\nEURJPY BULLISH The cross has potential to climb to 113.03 ahead of \t\t\t113.59 Fibonacci level next. Initial support lies at 112.19.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A disappointing Australian CPI reading allowed the dollar to advance against its Australian counterpart in an otherwise quiet Asia trading session. The BoJ opted to keep policy unchanged. EURUSD traded 1.3628-1.3684, and USDJPY 82.34-82.64. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18618","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18618","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18618"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18618\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18618"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18618"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18618"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}