{"id":18426,"date":"2011-01-21T07:55:18","date_gmt":"2011-01-21T12:55:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=18426"},"modified":"2011-01-21T07:55:18","modified_gmt":"2011-01-21T12:55:18","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-201","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/01\/21\/forex-daily-market-commentary-201\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar held onto most of yesterday’s gains after a stronger \t\t\tbatch of data pointed to an accelerating recovery in the US. EURUSD \t\t\ttraded 1.3442-1.3514, USDJPY 82.87-83.13. Asian equities, with the \t\t\texception of Shanghai, struggled throughout the session, after the \t\t\tS&P 500 finished just inside negative territory. US Treasury yields \t\t\tremain elevated. Initial jobless claims fell more than expected to \t\t\t404k and the four-week average in claims implies that the downward \t\t\ttrend seen in Q4 has been sustained into 2011. Existing home sales \t\t\tsurprisingly jumped 12.3% in December to a 5.28 million unit annual \t\t\trate, the highest monthly pace since last May. The current activity \t\t\tindex in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey edged down to a \t\t\tstill-solid level of 19.3 in January. The index of leading economic \t\t\tindicators rose +1.0% m\/m in December, and the strengthening is \t\t\tconsistent with our US economists’ forecasts for real GDP picking up \t\t\tto a 3.5% annual rate in Q4. All told, the data firmly bolsters the \t\t\tcase for a relatively better US recovery which we believe will \t\t\tsupport the dollar’s transition to growth currency status.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

European officials continued to voice opinions over potential next \t\t\tsteps to shore up sovereign debt problems but no clear solution has \t\t\tyet been presented. Newswires quoted an unnamed European source \t\t\tsaying there were discussions about expanding the EFSF to purchase \t\t\tsovereign bonds.
\nEurogroup President Juncker said euro volatility is extreme without \t\t\tcommenting on current levels and said we could see a comprehensive \t\t\tresponse to the debt crisis in a few weeks. European Council \t\t\tPresident Van Rompuy sees only a small chance of Eurozone leaders \t\t\thaving a separate crisis meeting during the larger EU leaders summit \t\t\ton February 4.
\nIfo President Sinn said Greece would not be able to service its debt \t\t\tand suggested Greece should deal with creditor banks about debt \t\t\trestructuring rather than a Eurozone restructuring of Greek debt. \t\t\tGerman Ifo data is due.
\nDeputy Chairman Ulyukaev of the Russian central bank said Russia \t\t\tcannot buy EFSF bonds currently because of regulations but they may \t\t\tlook to buy them should regulations change. Ulyukaev had also said \t\t\tRussia would look to diversify reserves and potentially buy Chinese \t\t\tyuan when capital controls are lifted.
\nRecent ECB speakers, including Liikanen and Tumpel-Gugerell, along \t\t\twith the monthly ECB bulletin have reiterated that there are no \t\t\t“imminent price pressures” in the Eurozone and inflation \t\t\texpectations are firmly anchored. The monthly ECB bulletin \t\t\thighlighted that price pressures stem largely from external sources, \t\t\tsuch as energy prices
\n CHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

SNB’s Hildebrand and Danthine sounded caution again on Swiss franc \t\t\tstrength on the growth backdrop. Hildebrand also said FX \t\t\tintervention decisions are based on the deflation risk assessment \t\t\tbut that the deflation threat has largely disappeared.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURJPY pressure on 112.19.<\/p>\n

EURUSD BULLISH Sustained break through 1.3539\/75 would expose \t\t\t1.3741. Near-term support lies at 1.3369.<\/p>\n

USDJPY NEUTRAL Spiky rise through 82.98 has turned the model to \t\t\tneutral; while support holds at 81.85\/61, resistance is at 83.49.<\/p>\n

GBPUSD BULLISH Push through 1.6059\/94 resistance zone would open up \t\t\tthe way towards 1.6184. Initial support defined at 1.5810.<\/p>\n

USDCHF BULLISH While support holds at 0.9521, break of 0.9647 has \t\t\texposed the next level of resistance at 0.9722 ahead of 0.9764.<\/p>\n

AUDUSD BEARISH Abrupt decline through 0.9856 puts pressure on \t\t\t0.9804, breach of this level would expose 0.9753. Near-term \t\t\tresistance at 1.0009 yesterday’s high.<\/p>\n

USDCAD NEUTRAL 1.0034 and 0.9912 mark the near term directional \t\t\ttriggers.<\/p>\n

EURCHF BULLISH Rise through 1.3038 has exposed 1.3122 next ahead of \t\t\t1.3206; initial support at 1.2815 yesterday’s low.<\/p>\n

EURGBP NEUTRAL Focus is on initial resistance 0.8499 while support \t\t\tholds at 0.8377.<\/p>\n

EURJPY BULLISH Pressure on 112.19, break of this level would expose \t\t\t113.03; initial support is at 110.32.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar held onto most of yesterday’s gains after a stronger batch of data pointed to an accelerating recovery in the US. EURUSD traded 1.3442-1.3514, USDJPY 82.87-83.13. Asian equities, with the exception of Shanghai, struggled throughout the session, after the S&P 500 finished just inside negative territory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18426","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18426"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18426\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18426"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18426"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18426"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}