{"id":18257,"date":"2011-01-18T08:56:20","date_gmt":"2011-01-18T13:56:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=18257"},"modified":"2011-01-18T08:56:20","modified_gmt":"2011-01-18T13:56:20","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-198","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/01\/18\/forex-daily-market-commentary-198\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

With the US holiday on holiday yesterday the Asia session was \t\t\tdeprived of its usual directional guidance, and price action was \t\t\tconsequently relatively subdued. The absence of news throughout the \t\t\tsession kept markets relatively quiet, although sterling benefited \t\t\tfrom a slight improvement in UK economic data. EURUSD traded \t\t\t1.3253-1.3338, USDJPY 82.46-82.78. No tier-one US data was released \t\t\tyesterday, but we did hear from one Fed speaker. Philadelphia Fed \t\t\tPresident Plosser said that the Fed’s QE program could end sooner \t\t\tthan expected if conditions were to call for it, and he expressed \t\t\this support for the concept of inflation targeting. Plosser added \t\t\tthat he doesn’t know when the policy rate will be hiked for the \t\t\tfirst time, but he would not rule out a rate hike this year.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The meeting of the 17 Eurozone finance ministers produced lots of \t\t\theadlines but no market-moving decisions. There is clearly some \t\t\tdifference of opinion over how urgently Europe’s financial rescue \t\t\tinfrastructure needs to be overhauled, and how extensive any \t\t\tmodifications should be. Belgian Finance Minister Reynders said he \t\t\twould be in favour of doubling the rescue fund’s lending capacity, \t\t\tand that discussions on this could begin immediately. Germany’s \t\t\tFinance Minister Schaeuble and Austria’s Finance Minister Proell \t\t\tmaintained there was no need for such urgency. French Finance \t\t\tMinister Lagarde said that the EFSF should be “replaced and \t\t\treinforced” and that EU states should submit a draft blueprint for a \t\t\tnew design by March. Irish Finance Minister Lenihan said he was keen \t\t\tto make progress on the question of the interest rate applied to \t\t\tmonies drawn down. Discussions continue later today when all 27 EU \t\t\tfinance ministers are due to meet.
\nThe first EFSF bond is due to be issued next week with a 5-year \t\t\tmaturity and a size in the range of \u20ac3-5 bn. EFSF CEO Regling said \t\t\the is confident the issue will help to restore stability in the bond \t\t\tmarkets and will protect the euro. He envisages a further two \t\t\tbenchmark bond issues later this year specifically to fund the \t\t\tIreland support program.
\nECB Governing Council member Orphanides said that markets may have \t\t\tover-reacted to comments made at the ECB’s press conference on \t\t\tThursday and that the policy board is not “overly hawkish”. He added \t\t\tthat if a new-look EFSF were equipped to buy government bonds, some \t\t\tof the ECB’s non-standard measures might no longer be necessary. The \t\t\tECB settled \u20ac2.313 bn worth of bonds purchases last week, up from \t\t\t\u20ac113 mn the week before.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sterling found a bid after better than expected economic data for \t\t\tDecember. The RICS house price balance came in at -39% (cons. -44%, \t\t\tprev. -44%), while consumer confidence climbed to 53 (cons. 44, \t\t\tprev. 45).
\n CAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Finance Minister Flaherty announced a tightening of mortgage lending \t\t\trules to discourage excessive borrowing. He said the new rules are \t\t\tpreventative, and aimed at avoiding the kind of housing problems \t\t\tthat have been seen in other countries. Flaherty added that the \t\t\ttiming of his announcement had nothing to do with the Bank of \t\t\tCanada’s policy decision, which is due later today. The consensus \t\t\texpects no change to the policy rate.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nGBPUSD breaks 1.5911\/35.
\nEURUSD BULLISH Upside potential holds below 1.3500, a move above \t\t\tthis level would signal a strong bull trend and expose 1.3575 next. \t\t\tNear-term support lies at 1.3232.
\nUSDJPY BEARISH Focus is on 82.31, breach of this level would expose \t\t\t81.89. Resistance is at 83.67.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH Break of 1.5911\/35 area has exposed 1.6074\/94 zone. \t\t\tInitial support defined at 1.5810.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Focus remains on the upside with resistance at 0.9784 \t\t\tahead of 0.9852. On the downside, break of 0.9605 has exposed new \t\t\tsupport level at 0.9542.
\nAUDUSD BEARISH The pair found support at 0.9804 ahead of 0.9753; \t\t\tresistance at 1.0020.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Pressure on upper end of the zone 0.9849\/25, break of \t\t\tthis area would expose 0.9712. Resistance is at 0.9977 reaction \t\t\thigh.
\nEURCHF BULLISH Rise through 1.2952 would expose 1.3038; initial \t\t\tsupport at 1.2757.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Downward momentum, the pair targets 0.8313 ahead of \t\t\t0.8285. Resistance at 0.8455 yesterday’s high.
\nEURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 109.48 holds, expect recovery \t\t\ttowards 111.12 and 112.19 next.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With the US holiday on holiday yesterday the Asia session was deprived of its usual directional guidance, and price action was consequently relatively subdued. The absence of news throughout the session kept markets relatively quiet…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18257"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18257\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}