{"id":17944,"date":"2011-01-11T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2011-01-11T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=17944"},"modified":"2011-01-11T08:30:00","modified_gmt":"2011-01-11T13:30:00","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-193","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/01\/11\/forex-daily-market-commentary-193\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

During the Asia session, FX markets were driven by news that \t\t\tfloodwater had reached Brisbane, and that Japan intends to buy bonds \t\t\tissued by the EFSF – Europe’s EUR440 bn financial rescue fund. \t\t\tAlthough the price action was volatile the dollar is largely \t\t\tunchanged against the euro at the time of writing, but AUDUSD \t\t\tdropped more than a big figure. EURUSD traded 1.2912-1.2991, and \t\t\tUSDJPY 82.68-83.14. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart, an alternate \t\t\tvoter in 2011, continues to support QE2 as there are further \t\t\theadwinds to the US recovery. He said the December jobs report \t\t\tshowed a modest pace of recovery and he sees little sign of \t\t\tinflationary pressures. Lockhart also said the Fed’s monetary policy \t\t\tis not intended to influence the dollar. Dallas Fed President Fisher \t\t\tsounded somewhat sceptical of additional monetary easing given he \t\t\tbelieves that the Fed has done “near as much as we can do”, and that \t\t\tboosting the US recovery is up to fiscal authorities now. \t\t\tPhiladelphia Fed President Plosser and Minnesota Fed President \t\t\tKocherlakota are due to speak later today. Our team of analysts \t\t\tstill looks for moderate dollar strength ahead as the US recovery \t\t\tcontinues and external developments remain in favour of the dollar.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro got a boost after Japan’s Finance Minister Noda said Japan \t\t\tintended to buy about 20% of the forthcoming bond due to be issued \t\t\tby the EFSF around the end of January.
\nFinland’s Finance Minister Katainen said that Portugal needs to take \t\t\tstrong political decisions to calm markets, and that Ireland may not \t\t\tbe the last country to seek EU\/IMF help.
\nFrench, German, Portuguese and Spanish officials denied reports that \t\t\tother Eurozone member nations were pressuring Portugal to accept a \t\t\tbail-out package amid the pressure on its sovereign borrowing costs. \t\t\tA French official was also quoted as saying the situation in \t\t\tPortugal is not as serious as was the situation in Ireland or \t\t\tGreece. Eurozone peripheral cash spreads tightened but levels still \t\t\tremain elevated around late-2010 wides and the upcoming auctions for \t\t\tItaly, Portugal and Spain will be the barometers for their borrowing \t\t\tcosts. There were also reports that the ECB had been active with \t\t\ttheir Securities Markets Programme but we will have to wait until \t\t\tthe weekly settlement data is published next week.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Japan’s Finance Minister Noda said Japan intends to buy about 20% of \t\t\tthe forthcoming EFSF bond. The eventual size of this first EFSF \t\t\toffering is not yet known, but is expected to be in the range of \t\t\tYen3-8 bn. Noda said he would like to use existing euro-denominated \t\t\tFX reserves to fund the purchase. As such, we do not expect any FX \t\t\tflow to accrue from this possible future transaction, although \t\t\tJapan’s involvement should be seen as a mild euro positive.
\n CHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Retail sales in November were slightly above consensus at +2.50% \t\t\ty\/y, highlighting the relatively strong fundamentals of the Swiss \t\t\teconomy.
\n CAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

BoC Deputy Governor Cote said she is closely watching Canadian \t\t\thousehold debt given the considerable excess supply in the economy \t\t\tand the risks that a low interest rate environment presents.
\nThis week started with a disappointing building permits figure for \t\t\tNovember but this is not to say the Canadian recovery is falling off \t\t\tthe tracks, particularly as the BoC Senior Loan Officer Survey shows \t\t\toverall easing in business lending conditions for the fifth straight \t\t\tquarter and the Q4 Business Outlook Survey showed firms are positive \t\t\ton the 12-month economic outlook<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nAUDUSD clears 0.9863\/31.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Focus is on 1.2830\/1.2796 support area. Resistance is \t\t\tat 1.3021.
\nUSDJPY NEUTRAL Break above 83.67 would open up the way towards 84.51 \t\t\tmid-December high; support at 82.63.
\nGBPUSD NEUTRAL Upside potential holds below 1.5627, the key trend \t\t\tline resistance drawn off Nov. 5 high; 1.5475 marks the near term \t\t\tsupport.
\nUSDCHF NEUTRAL Focus on the tough 0.9774 Fibonacci resistance. \t\t\tSupport lies at 0.9605.
\nAUDUSD BEARISH Breach of 0.9863\/31 support zone favours triggers \t\t\tnegative tone; pressures 0.9812 next. Resistance at 0.9956 intraday \t\t\thigh.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Outlook is bearish with focus on 0.9889\/25 support \t\t\tarea. Resistance is at 1.0004.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Focus is on 1.2402 key low, initial resistance at \t\t\t1.2726.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Found support at 0.8285 ahead of 0.8252; resistance \t\t\tat 0.8339.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Next big support lies at 105.97 key low, resistance \t\t\tat 108.55.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During the Asia session, FX markets were driven by news that floodwater had reached Brisbane, and that Japan intends to buy bonds issued by the EFSF – Europe’s EUR440 bn financial rescue fund. Although the price action was volatile the dollar…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17944","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17944"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17944\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}