{"id":17778,"date":"2011-01-07T08:45:59","date_gmt":"2011-01-07T13:45:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=17778"},"modified":"2011-01-07T08:45:59","modified_gmt":"2011-01-07T13:45:59","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-191","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/01\/07\/forex-daily-market-commentary-191\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar continued to grind higher during the Asia session, as \t\t\tguarded optimism builds over the upcoming payrolls report, and the \t\t\tstrength of the US recovery in general. EURUSD traded 1.2968-1.3029, \t\t\tUSDJPY 83.14-83.56. Asian equities were fractionally higher, after \t\t\tthe S&P 500 finished down -0.2%. Press reports mentioned that US \t\t\tTreasury Secretary Geithner has written to Congress to urge that the \t\t\tUS debt limit be raised, preferably before the end of March. Initial \t\t\tjobless claims rose in line with expectations in the week ended Jan \t\t\t1 to 409k. Our analysts upped their estimate for nonfarm payrolls \t\t\tfollowing the better data earlier this week. They forecast private \t\t\tpayrolls rose +190k (cons: +170k) and total payrolls increased +160k \t\t\t(cons: +150k). The dollar has recently started to behave \t\t\tincreasingly like a growth currency but today’s payrolls release, \t\t\tand Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony, will be a good litmus test \t\t\tfor whether this trend can be sustained. Although we look for modest \t\t\tdollar strength in 2011, ongoing uncertainty on the recovery, \t\t\tcoupled with the possibility of policy errors, is expected to keep \t\t\tFX volatility elevated.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The newswires carried comments from China’s PBoC. The Bank said the \t\t\teuro is an important part of its FX reserves investment, adding that \t\t\tEurozone sovereign debt offers reasonable returns.
\nAccording to newswires, the EU Commission has put forward a \t\t\tblueprint for imposing haircuts on senior bondholders of European \t\t\tbanks. The same reports suggest the measures could become law by \t\t\t2013.
\nA Spanish newspaper, citing an unnamed government source, said that \t\t\tChina has committed to purchase \u20ac6 bn of Spanish sovereign debt. \t\t\tThis represents a relatively small portion of the \u20ac90 bn in Spanish \t\t\tsupply our European rates strategists expect for 2011. The newspaper \t\t\tadded that China’s Vice Premier Li has committed to buy as much \t\t\tSpanish debt as the combined holdings of China’s Greek and \t\t\tPortuguese bonds.
\nEurozone consumer confidence came in softer than estimates at -11.0, \t\t\tdown from November’s print of -9.4. However, German factory orders \t\t\tfor November were much stronger than consensus, rising by +5.2% m\/m \t\t\tand +20.6% y\/y.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The UK services PMI disappointed, recording a figure of 49.7. Our UK \t\t\teconomist notes that this is largely a blip in the trend due \t\t\tprimarily to the adverse weather conditions experienced over the \t\t\tprevious month, and the index should recover in January.
\n CHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

CPI for December was firmer than expected at +0.5% y\/y, a \t\t\tsignificant rise on November’s print of +0.2%. This reading helps \t\t\tdampen expectations of renewed SNB intervention, especially as \t\t\tconsumer surveys show inflation expectations are already picking up, \t\t\tsuggesting upside CPI risks in 2011.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURUSD breaks 1.3084\/55.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Break of 1.3084\/55 area has exposed 1.2830\/1.2796. \t\t\tResistance is at 1.3170.
\nUSDJPY NEUTRAL Focus is on 83.67, with the big resistance at the \t\t\t84.51 mid-December high next; support at 81.89.
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Support is at 1.5345 while resistance is at 1.5695.
\nUSDCHF NEUTRAL Focus on the tough 0.9774 Fibonacci resistance. \t\t\tSupport lies at 0.9469.
\nAUDUSD NEUTRAL Pressure on 0.9951\/18 support area with resistance at \t\t\t1.0256.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Break of 0.9917 would expose 0.9889\/25 area. Initial \t\t\tresistance is at 1.0034.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Rise above 1.2699\/1.2702 exposes 1.2847\/88. Support \t\t\tis at 1.2456.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Decline through 0.8409 Fibonacci support has exposed \t\t\t0.8347\/35 support area; resistance at 0.8489 yesterday’s high.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Bearish outlook; support is at 107.61 with resistance \t\t\tat 110.82.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar continued to grind higher during the Asia session, as guarded optimism builds over the upcoming payrolls report, and the strength of the US recovery in general. EURUSD traded 1.2968-1.3029, USDJPY 83.14-83.56. Asian equities were fractionally higher<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17778","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17778"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17778\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}