{"id":17673,"date":"2011-01-06T08:46:51","date_gmt":"2011-01-06T13:46:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=17673"},"modified":"2011-01-06T08:46:51","modified_gmt":"2011-01-06T13:46:51","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-190","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/01\/06\/forex-daily-market-commentary-190\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar continued to strengthen during the Asia session in the \t\t\taftermath of the exceptionally strong ADP employment report. EURUSD \t\t\ttraded 1.3130-1.3185, USDJPY 83.15-83.40. The FX reaction was very \t\t\tmuch in tune with our view that the dollar is poised to become a \t\t\tgrowth currency that benefits from stronger US data. The ADP change \t\t\tof +297k (cons. +100k) is the highest ever recorded, and was well \t\t\tabove the upper range of economist estimates. The nonmanufacturing \t\t\tISM index also beat expectations although the employment component \t\t\tslipped in December. Nevertheless, our US economists raised their \t\t\tDecember payroll forecast to +190k for private payrolls and +160k in \t\t\ttotal payrolls, up from +150k and +120k, respectively. They also \t\t\tlowered their unemployment rate forecast to 9.7% from 9.8%. \t\t\tContinued improvement in the economic backdrop should point to more \t\t\tdollar strength, particularly versus the yen and Swiss franc, as \t\t\tmarket participants could start to price out further quantitative \t\t\teasing. But we remain cautious until we see the actual payrolls \t\t\tprint and hear what Fed Chairman Bernanke has to say on Friday. \t\t\tJobless claims are due and the dollar is likely to find further \t\t\tsupport if fewer than 400k claims are reported
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The European Commission said that its ?5 bn sale of bonds to finance \t\t\tIreland’s rescue package was oversubscribed. The EFSF is expected to \t\t\tissue ?8 bn of bonds by the end of January for the same purpose.
\nAn auction of Portuguese 6m bills was well covered, but the average \t\t\tyield was significantly higher than at the previous auction.
\nEurozone PMIs were above consensus with services at 54.2 and \t\t\tcomposite at 55.5. The trend of diverging paths across Europe \t\t\tcontinued with softer data from Italy and Spain and stronger \t\t\tconditions across the ‘core’.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The UK construction PMI was disappointing at 49.1 in December, \t\t\talthough this is likely to be due to adverse weather conditions. Our \t\t\tUK economist notes that the more important measure is the services \t\t\tsector PMI tomorrow.
\n CHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

December CPI is due but while the m\/m print could be negative, the \t\t\ty\/y reading should remain in positive territory, which should be \t\t\tenough to dampen expectations of renewed SNB intervention. Consumer \t\t\tsurveys show inflation expectations picking up, suggesting upside \t\t\tCPI risks in 2011. We still look for some monetary policy tightening \t\t\tby the SNB in early 2011.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Residential building approvals for Nov. fell -4.2% m\/m, a decline \t\t\tthat was slightly faster than the consensus expected. AUDUSD did not \t\t\treact, and the pair seems more concerned with the impact of flooding \t\t\tin Queensland and a resurgent US dollar.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURGBP support is at 0.8446.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Break of 1.3199 Fibonacci support exposes 1.3084\/55 \t\t\tarea.
\nUSDJPY NEUTRAL Move above 83.10 has exposed 83.67, with the big \t\t\tresistance at the 84.51 mid-December high; support at 81.89.
\nGBPUSD NEUTRAL 1.5695 and 1.5345 mark the near term directional \t\t\ttriggers.
\nUSDCHF NEUTRAL Focus on the tough 0.9774 Fibonacci resistance. \t\t\tSupport is at 0.9469 yesterday’s low.
\nAUDUSD NEUTRAL Support lies at 0.9951\/18 while resistance is at \t\t\t1.0256.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Bearish outlook; break of 0.9917 exposes 0.9889\/25 \t\t\tarea. Initial resistance is at 1.0034.
\nEURCHF NEUTRAL Model has turned neutral; rise above 1.2699\/1.2702 \t\t\texposes 1.2847\/88. Support is at 1.2456.
\nEURGBP NEUTRAL Pressure on 0.8446 support holds while resistance is \t\t\tat 0.8637.
\nEURJPY NEUTRAL Focus is on 110.82 resistance while support lies at \t\t\t107.61.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar continued to strengthen during the Asia session in the aftermath of the exceptionally strong ADP employment report. EURUSD traded 1.3130-1.3185, USDJPY 83.15-83.40. The FX reaction was very much in tune with our view that the dollar is poised<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17673","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17673"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17673\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}