{"id":17571,"date":"2011-01-05T08:15:44","date_gmt":"2011-01-05T13:15:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=17571"},"modified":"2011-01-05T08:15:44","modified_gmt":"2011-01-05T13:15:44","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-189","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2011\/01\/05\/forex-daily-market-commentary-189\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar continued to strengthen during the Asia session, as \t\t\tequity markets lost their upward momentum, and commodities suffered \t\t\tlosses, hurting the AUD in particular. EURUSD traded 1.3264-1.3331, \t\t\tUSDJPY 81.53-82.28. Gold and oil stabilised after yesterday’s heavy \t\t\tfalls, and are respectively trading at $1383.45\/oz and $89.19\/bbl at \t\t\tthe time of writing. The Dec. 14 FOMC minutes contained no negative \t\t\tdollar surprises as officials “felt that the change in the outlook \t\t\twas not sufficient to warrant any adjustments to the asset-purchase \t\t\tprogram, and some noted that more time was needed to accumulate \t\t\tinformation on the economy before considering any adjustment.” \t\t\tOfficials did not seem concerned with the rise in Treasury yields \t\t\tleading up to the meeting, noting that yields are still “lower than \t\t\twould otherwise be the case” if asset purchases were not being \t\t\tundertaken. Factory orders, turned positive in November coming in at \t\t\t+0.7% (cons. -0.1%). But with payrolls and Chairman Bernanke’s \t\t\ttestimony still ahead, risk-seeking remains in check as market \t\t\tparticipants, like Fed officials, want more data points to gauge \t\t\tprospects for the US recovery and the dollar.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

China’s Vice Premier Li pledged to “buy more” Spanish government \t\t\tbonds “depending on market conditions”.
\nECB Governing Council member Mersch called on governments to \t\t\twithdraw economic stimulus measures “at a moderate but steady pace” \t\t\tso that public finances can be brought back “onto a sustainable \t\t\ttrack”. He noted that fiscal surpluses would eventually be needed \t\t\t“to erode massive debt mountains”. Not doing so, he said, could lead \t\t\tto “sovereign debt crises in yet more countries”.
\nGreek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou said Greece would qualify \t\t\tfor the next EU\/IMF bailout tranche as reforms are on schedule. He \t\t\talso said talks with China on buying Greek bonds are progressing, \t\t\talthough the amount and timing are not publishable yet. \t\t\tPapaconstantinou said he is confident the EU will agree on Eurobonds \t\t\tin the near future and said there are no discussions on potential \t\t\tdebt restructuring.
\nThe preliminary reading for Eurozone CPI was higher than forecast at \t\t\t2.2% y\/y for December, above the ECB’s target rate of 2% for the \t\t\tfirst time in over 2 years. While this is largely due to the \t\t\ttemporary impact of rising energy prices, questions over the timing \t\t\tand extent of an ECB exit strategy are likely to weigh heavy if \t\t\tabove-target readings continue.
\nGerman unemployment rose by a seasonally adjusted 3 mn versus \t\t\texpectations of a slight decrease. Our European economists note \t\t\thowever, that this was probably due to the cold winter weather and \t\t\tis therefore a temporary diversion. Spanish unemployment figures \t\t\twere more promising, with the non-seasonally adjusted measure \t\t\tcontacting by 10.2k m\/m in December. Our team of analysts notes that \t\t\tthe Spanish labour market is beginning to stabilize, although the \t\t\tabsolute level is structurally high.
\nGerman manufacturing PMI was softer than expected at 60.7, however \t\t\tthe factory jobs index came in at 57.1, the highest in the survey’s \t\t\t14-year history. Other Eurozone PMI and industrial new orders are \t\t\tdue
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The PMI manufacturing reading for December was strong at 58.3, with \t\t\tthe headline figure at its highest level since 1994. The \t\t\tforward-looking new orders balance also rose to its highest level \t\t\tsince May, offering a positive view on the UK manufacturing \t\t\tindustry.
\nMortgage approvals were also fairly strong at 48k versus consensus \t\t\tat 16.5k. Our analysts note however that, with the long-run average \t\t\tup at 95k, the reading is still at an unusually low level.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The local press quoted RBA board member McGauchie as saying that \t\t\tmonetary and fiscal policy are working against each other in \t\t\tAustralia. He said that “we are spending money on fiscal stimulus \t\t\tand other things we shouldn’t be spending money on and that means \t\t\thigher interest rates than we would otherwise have\u201d.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURCHF support at 1.2402
\nEURUSD BULLISH Momentum is positive; break of 1.3433 would expose \t\t\t1.3499. Support at 1.3216
\nUSDJPY BEARISH The outlook remains bearish; focus is on 80.93 ahead \t\t\tof 80.54. Resistance is at 84.51
\nGBPUSD NEUTRAL The 1.5345 support remains intact, a break here is \t\t\trequired to confirm a resumption of the bear trend. Resistance is at \t\t\t1.5775
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Bearish outlook remains; focus is on 0.9301 ahead of \t\t\t0.9202; initial resistance is at 0.9734
\nAUDUSD BULLISH Momentum is slowing; targets 0.9988 ahead of \t\t\t0.9951\/18 while resistance is at 1.0256
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Bearish outlook; targets 0.9889\/25 support zone. \t\t\tInitial resistance is at 1.0073
\nEURCHF BEARISH Outlook remains bearish; break of 1.2402 would expose \t\t\t1.2283; resistance at 1.2714
\nEURGBP BULLISH Upside momentum with focus on 0.8692, a break here \t\t\texposes 0.8777. Support at 0.8503
\nEURJPY BEARISH Support holds at 107.61, break here would expose \t\t\t105.80. Resistance at 110.82.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar continued to strengthen during the Asia session, as equity markets lost their upward momentum, and commodities suffered losses, hurting the AUD in particular. EURUSD traded 1.3264-1.3331, USDJPY 81.53-82.28. Gold and oil stabilised after yesterday’s heavy falls,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17571"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17571\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}