{"id":17245,"date":"2010-12-23T08:37:03","date_gmt":"2010-12-23T13:37:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=17245"},"modified":"2010-12-23T08:37:03","modified_gmt":"2010-12-23T13:37:03","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-182","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/12\/23\/forex-daily-market-commentary-182\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar \t\t\tweakened against the JPY, the AUD, the EUR and the NZD after \t\t\tunconfirmed reports in the Chinese media suggested that the PBoC \t\t\tmight approve a larger-than-expected loan growth quota for the \t\t\tcoming year. EURUSD traded 1.3079-1.3141, USDJPY 83.07-83.71. \t\t\tJapanese equity markets were closed for a holiday, but the S&P 500 \t\t\tclosed up +0.34%. Oil remains near multi-month highs and is trading \t\t\tat $90.69 at the time of writing. Philadelphia Fed President \t\t\tPlosser, a 2011 FOMC voter, said he remains skeptical of \t\t\tquantitative easing, particularly if the economic growth rate \t\t\tcontinues to strengthen and looks sustainable. Plosser said the Fed \t\t\tcould react to such a scenario by purchasing fewer bonds. Q3 real \t\t\tGDP growth was revised up slightly to a 2.6% annual rate (cons \t\t\t+2.8%) from the previously reported 2.5%, but the composition of \t\t\tgrowth was weaker, with upward revision to inventory investment and \t\t\tdownward revision to consumer spending. Inventories now contribute \t\t\t1.6 percentage points. Real consumer spending growth was revised \t\t\tdown to a 2.4% annual rate from 2.8%. In housing data, existing home \t\t\tsales rose 5.6% in Nov to a 4.68mn unit annual rate (cons 4.75mn). \t\t\tData releases ahead include durable goods orders, jobless claims and \t\t\tthe final University of Michigan confidence index.<\/p>\n


\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

EU \t\t\tCommissioner Rehn said that markets are too pessimistic on Portugal \t\t\tand Spain. He said “Spain’s and Portugal’s ability to take care of \t\t\tstate debt and stimulate economic growth is much better than what \t\t\tthe markets currently assume”. He added that speculation on a euro \t\t\tbreakup “has no resonance in practical decision-making and political \t\t\tdiscussion.”
\nECB Governing Council member Kranjec said he is “sure that the euro \t\t\twill survive … that is in the interest of the European Union and \t\t\tall euro zone members”. He said there are some problems, but these \t\t\tare now “being solved”.<\/p>\n

GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

BoE MPC \t\t\tmember Fisher would not rule out the possibility that the UK could \t\t\tsee a quarter of negative growth, noting that “when you are \t\t\trecovering from a deep recession it is not impossible” for this to \t\t\thappen. Although he said recovery will continue to be slow, he noted \t\t\tthat the risk of deflation had “diminished”. On the possibility of \t\t\tmore QE, he said ” the chances are less than they were but it’s \t\t\tstill not ruled out.”
\nUK GDP was revised downwards slightly from previous estimates, \t\t\tincreasing by 0.7% q\/q versus consensus of 0.8%, an indication that \t\t\tthe fiscal austerity measures are beginning to bite. The vote split \t\t\tfor the December BOE meeting remained at 7-1-1 on interest rates and \t\t\tQE, with Adam Posen voting for \u00a350 bn more QE and Andrew Sentance a \t\t\t25bp rate hike. However, the other voters sounded slightly more \t\t\thawkish than in previous meetings as the minutes said that the \t\t\t“accumulation of news over recent months had probably shifted the \t\t\tbalance of risks to inflation in the medium term upwards”.
\nThe GDP revision moved the market more than the MPC minutes but \t\t\tshould GDP numbers remain stable, the upward trending inflation path \t\t\tcould lead to a fundamental shift in stance of the MPC in future \t\t\tmeetings, along the lines of the recent shift in rhetoric, which \t\t\tcould give GBP some support in the medium term.
\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

EURUSD \t\t\tBEARISH Move below 1.3061\/48 support zone would expose 1.2969. \t\t\tResistance at 1.3360
\nUSDJPY NEUTRAL While support at 82.84 holds, resistance is at 84.51
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Break below 1.5454 leaves little support till \t\t\t1.5297\/65. Initial resistance at 1.5568
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Support is at 0.9463 key low, a break here would \t\t\tleave little support till 0.9202
\nAUDUSD BULLISH Upside potential, break of 1.0029 has exposed 1.0091 \t\t\tahead of 1.0183; support lies at 0.9841\/31
\nUSDCAD BULLISH Push above 1.0287 required to confirm the bull trend; \t\t\tinitial support at 1.0103
\nEURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.2533\/00 support zone exposed 1.2283; \t\t\tresistance at 1.2714
\nEURGBP BULLISH Resistance at 0.8553, support at 0.8426
\nEURJPY BEARISH Break of 109.57 has exposed 108.35. \t\t\tResistance at 110.82<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n

The dollar \t\t\tweakened against the JPY, the AUD, the EUR and the NZD after \t\t\tunconfirmed reports in the Chinese media suggested that the PBoC \t\t\tmight approve a larger-than-expected loan growth quota for the \t\t\tcoming year.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar weakened against the JPY, the AUD, the EUR and the NZD after unconfirmed reports in the Chinese media suggested that the PBoC might approve a larger-than-expected loan growth quota for the coming year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17245"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17245\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}