{"id":17209,"date":"2010-12-22T11:03:12","date_gmt":"2010-12-22T16:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=17209"},"modified":"2010-12-22T11:03:12","modified_gmt":"2010-12-22T16:03:12","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-181","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/12\/22\/forex-daily-market-commentary-181\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar \t\t\tlost some ground to the euro during the Asia session, but was \t\t\tlargely range-bound against the rest of its G10 peers. EURUSD traded \t\t\t1.3074-1.3143, USDJPY 83.71-83.91. There were no data releases in \t\t\tthe US, and economic data published elsewhere were second-tier. The \t\t\tS&P 500 closed up +0.6%, but Asian stocks are marginally weaker at \t\t\tthe time of writing. Upcoming data for the US includes the third \t\t\testimate of Q3 GDP and existing home sales. Our US economists expect \t\t\tQ3 GDP to be revised slightly higher to +2.8% q\/q annualized from \t\t\t+2.5% previously. US data has generally improved since the summer, \t\t\tand an upward revision to GDP would reflect this. Eurozone headlines \t\t\tshould remain the most significant FX driver into year-end, which \t\t\tshould keep downward pressure on EURUSD. Conscious of the developing \t\t\tsituation inside the Eurozone, the Fed authorized the extension of \t\t\ttemporary dollar liquidity swaps to the Bank of Canada, Bank of \t\t\tEngland, ECB, Bank of Japan and SNB through to August 1, 2011. The \t\t\texisting facilities had been due to expire in January.<\/p>\n


\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro \t\t\tremains vulnerable following the latest batch of ratings-related \t\t\theadlines. Moody’s placed Portugal’s sovereign rating on negative \t\t\twatch, citing economic growth prospects as the main justification. \t\t\tThe ratings agency also said that approaching the EFSF for \t\t\tassistance would not necessarily be viewed as a negative, as it \t\t\tcould help resolve some of the short-term uncertainties. Fitch put \t\t\tGreece on negative rating watch, and expects its review to be \t\t\tcompleted during January 2011.<\/p>\n


\nJPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The trade \t\t\tsurplus contracted significantly in November, which is likely due at \t\t\tleast in part to a stronger yen. Export growth fell short of \t\t\texpectations coming in at +9.1% y\/y (cons. 10.3%), while imports \t\t\tgrew by +14.2% y\/y (cons. 9.0%). The government said it would take \t\t\tdecisive steps to tackle the yen’s rise, including intervention if \t\t\tnecessary.<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Minutes from \t\t\tthe BoE’s Dec. 9 policy meeting are due. We expect MPC member \t\t\tSentance dissented in favour of a rate hike, and MPC member Posen \t\t\tlooked to expand the size of the QE program. Sentance reaffirmed his \t\t\tstance overnight saying that “it is right to begin to gradually move \t\t\tUK interest rates up”. Posen, as recently as Thursday, warned about \t\t\tthe risks of hiking too soon, noting it was important to resist the \t\t\ttemptation “to demonstrate to the public or to markets how upset we \t\t\tare about being above target” on inflation.
\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/strong>EURUSD BEARISH Move \t\t\tbelow 1.3061\/48 support zone would expose 1.2969. Resistance at \t\t\t1.3360
\nUSDJPY BULLISH While support at 82.84 holds, expect gains to target \t\t\t84.51
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Break below 1.5454 leaves little support till \t\t\t1.5297\/65. Initial resistance at 1.5568
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Outlook is bearish; support at 0.9548 and then 0.9463 \t\t\tkey low.
\nAUDUSD BULLISH Upside potential expected to target 1.0029; support \t\t\tlies at 0.9841\/31
\nUSDCAD BULLISH Push above 1.0287 required to confirm the bull trend; \t\t\tinitial support at 1.0103
\nEURCHF BEARISH Pressure on 1.2533\/00; resistance at 1.2714
\nEURGBP NEUTRAL Resistance at 0.8553, support at 0.8426
\nEURJPY BEARISH Stalled at 109.57; a break here would expose 108.35. \t\t\tResistance at 110.82<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar lost some ground to the euro during the Asia session, but was largely range-bound against the rest of its G10 peers. EURUSD traded 1.3074-1.3143, USDJPY 83.71-83.91. There were no data releases in the US, and economic data published elsewhere were second-tier.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17209","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17209"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17209\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}