{"id":16391,"date":"2010-12-06T08:34:20","date_gmt":"2010-12-06T13:34:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=16391"},"modified":"2010-12-06T08:34:20","modified_gmt":"2010-12-06T13:34:20","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-169","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/12\/06\/forex-daily-market-commentary-169\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Fed Chairman Bernanke’s CBS interview provided no further dollar \t\t\tnegative remarks and this allowed the greenback to claw back some of \t\t\tlast week’s losses during the Asia session. EURUSD traded \t\t\t1.3334-1.3442, USDJPY 82.57-82.99. Spot gold remains near all-time \t\t\thighs, and is changing hands for $1414.18\/oz at the time of writing. \t\t\tThe dollar came under some severe selling pressure on Friday, mainly \t\t\tdue to a much weaker than expected payrolls report. Comments \t\t\tattributed to Fed Chairman Bernanke also encouraged the selling to \t\t\tcontinue when he said he would not rule out UST purchases beyond the \t\t\t$600bn currently ear-marked for QE2. Meanwhile, intra-Eurozone \t\t\tsovereign bond spreads continued to tighten throughout the day, \t\t\twhich led to a partial unwind of the safe-haven flows that had \t\t\tpreviously supported the dollar. November payrolls only rose +39k \t\t\t(cons. +150k), and private payrolls were equally unspectacular, \t\t\tclimbing only +50k (cons. +160k). The unemployment rate also jumped \t\t\tunexpectedly to 9.8% (cons. 9.6%). The November non-manufacturing \t\t\tISM printed a better than expected 55.0 (cons. 54.8), but this was \t\t\tnot enough to turn the tide on the dollar selling on Friday. Our \t\t\tanalysts note that better news on the employment front could lie \t\t\tahead given that the latest manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISMs \t\t\tnow imply payrolls growth of a little under +200k per month.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sovereign bond spreads continued to tighten sharply on Friday amid \t\t\tnewswire reports of intense ECB activity. ECB Governing Council \t\t\tmember Nowotny later declared that the ECB had “energetically” used \t\t\tits sovereign bond purchase program during the week. Today, the ECB \t\t\tare due to release the value of ECB bond purchases which settled \t\t\tlast week, but this will only include purchases undertaken before \t\t\tthe close on Tuesday evening.
\nEurozone finance ministers are due to meet today for a scheduled \t\t\tmonthly meeting, and newswires suggest that IMF Managing Director \t\t\tStrauss-Kahn and ECB President Trichet are due to join in the \t\t\tdiscussions.
\nWriting in The Financial Times, Eurogroup Chairman Juncker and \t\t\tItalian Finance Minister Tremonti proposed that a new European debt \t\t\tagency should be set up in the coming months with the intention of \t\t\tissuing European sovereign bonds. German Finance Minister Schaeuble \t\t\tdismissed the idea saying that a treaty change would be required, \t\t\tand pointing out that individual countries must continue to be \t\t\tincentivised to exercise discipline over national finances.
\nBelgium’s Finance Minister Reynders suggested that the size of the \t\t\tEurozone’s financial rescue fund could be increased over the “next \t\t\tweeks or months”. Earlier, Trichet appeared to recommend such a \t\t\tcourse of action. Referring to the stabilisation fund, Trichet said \t\t\tit is important that “everything is commensurate to the dimension of \t\t\tthe challenges”. However, Spain’s Economy Minister Salgado said that \t\t\tthe question of whether to increase the size of the EFSF fund is \t\t\t“not the question for the moment. Today, we need to show clarity, \t\t\tdetermination and coordination\u201d.
\nECB Governing Council member Nowotny said that the euro remains a \t\t\tfully functioning currency, and that a hypothetical breakup of the \t\t\tEurozone would have “massive disadvantages for both sides”. He added \t\t\tthat “the only thing that would profit from this would be the \t\t\tdollar, and Europe would lose\u201d.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The headline services PMI was in-line with consensus at 53.2, but \t\t\tthe forward-looking new business balance rose by the fastest amount \t\t\tsince June. Our UK economist still expects no policy change from \t\t\tthis week’s MPC meeting.
\n CAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Employment rose in November by +15.k (cons. +19.8k), falling well \t\t\tshort of consensus expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly \t\t\tfell to 7.6% (prev. 7.9%), but this was partly due to a sharp fall \t\t\tin the participation rate.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURCHF 1.3229 resistance.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Recovery pressures 1.3448; as long as the level \t\t\tholds, expect decline towards 1.3193 and 1.2969 next.
\nUSDJPY NEUTRAL Sell-off on Friday found support at 82.53. Resistance \t\t\tat 83.90.
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Break of 1.5773 exposes 1.5840 previous low. While \t\t\tthe level holds expect losses to target 1.5581.
\nUSDCHF NEUTRAL Abrupt decline through 0.9849 found support at \t\t\t0.9727. Resistance at 0.9951.
\nAUDUSD NEUTRAL Recovery eyes 0.9954, support comes in at 0.9864.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Focus is on the 0.9978\/31 support zone. Resistance at \t\t\t1.0190.
\nEURCHF BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.3229 breakout low holds, \t\t\texpect losses to target 1.2933 and 1.2766 next.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Push through 0.8329 would expose 0.8202. Resistance \t\t\tat 0.8564.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Decline through 108.35 and 107.73 would open up the \t\t\tway towards 105.44 key low. Near-term resistance at 111.98.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n


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Fed Chairman Bernanke’s CBS interview provided no further dollar negative remarks and this allowed the greenback to claw back some of last week’s losses during the Asia session. EURUSD traded 1.3334-1.3442, USDJPY 82.57-82.99. Spot gold remains near all-time highs…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16391","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16391","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16391"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16391\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16391"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16391"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16391"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}