{"id":16214,"date":"2010-12-03T09:10:18","date_gmt":"2010-12-03T14:10:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=16214"},"modified":"2010-12-03T09:10:18","modified_gmt":"2010-12-03T14:10:18","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-168","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/12\/03\/forex-daily-market-commentary-168\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

FX markets were relatively quiet during the Asia session, and the \t\t\tprice action was subdued. EURUSD traded 1.3188-1.3233, USDJPY \t\t\t83.96-83.56. Earlier, some better US data helped push US equities \t\t\thigher, and the 10y Treasury yield breached 3% for the first time \t\t\tsince July. A positive pending home sales print broke a recent \t\t\tstring of disappointing housing data. Although initial jobless \t\t\tclaims were slightly higher than consensus, the four-week average \t\t\tcontinued to drop. Philadelphia Fed President Plosser, a voter in \t\t\t2011, was not supportive of QE2 prior to the decision and said he \t\t\tremains skeptical as to how much of a stimulative effect we might \t\t\tsee. Both Plosser and St Louis Fed President Bullard, a 2010 voter, \t\t\tsaid the Fed could adjust the QE2 program in both directions \t\t\tdepending on data. Bullard, though, maintained his constructive view \t\t\ton QE2 as he said the program should spur increased activity in 6 to \t\t\t12 months and that the recent rise in yields does not mean QE2 is \t\t\tfailing.<\/p>\n

Our team of analysts remain constructive on the dollar over the \t\t\tshort and medium term as a solution for Eurozone problems remains \t\t\telusive, and as our analysts expect an above-consensus payrolls \t\t\tprint today.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro stayed supported during the Asia session after yesterday’s \t\t\tvolatile price action in and around the ECB’s press conference. The \t\t\tECB’s policy decision itself was in line with what most informed \t\t\tobservers had expected, and three-month fully-allotted liquidity \t\t\twill continue to be provided into Q1. The euro sold-off initially as \t\t\tnewspaper articles had fuelled expectations in some quarters that \t\t\tfurther extraordinary measures to support European sovereign bond \t\t\tmarkets might be announced. The euro soon rebounded sharply \t\t\tafterwards though, amid media reports that the ECB had begun heavily \t\t\tbuying sovereign bonds.
\nS&P said it may cut Greece’s BB+ long-term credit rating some time \t\t\tin the next three months. S&P placed the rating on credit watch \t\t\tnegative citing the risk that Greece might need funding after 2013 \t\t\tfrom the newly-proposed European Stability Mechanism.
\nAs expected, Eurozone GDP growth slowed to +0.4% q\/q. Whilst exports \t\t\tslowed substantially, they are likely to benefit from a weaker euro \t\t\tgoing forward, and domestic demand remains strong.
\n CHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Whilst Q2 GDP was revised down significantly, figures for Q3 showed \t\t\ta solid performance by the Swiss economy, as it grew by 0.7% (Q\/Q) \t\t\tand 3.0%(Y\/Y). CPI data is due and our European economists expect it \t\t\twill remain in positive territory.
\n CAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Canadian labour data is due and consensus is for an increase in the \t\t\tnet change of employment to the tune of +19.8k, and an unchanged \t\t\tunemployment rate of 7.9%. But more importantly for USDCAD will be \t\t\tthe US labour data and a good print there could see USDCAD push \t\t\tlower as a recovering US economy is supportive for Canada as \t\t\tinvestors look to higher-beta assets.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nUSDJPY stalled at 84.41.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Pullback from 1.4282 found support at 1.2969, scope \t\t\tfor 1.2796 next. Resistance at 1.3354.
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Stalled at 84.41; breach of the level would expose \t\t\t85.40 reaction high. Initial support at 82.79.
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Sell-off from 1.6299 found support at 1.5485; move \t\t\tbelow the level would expose 1.5297. Near-term resistance at 1.5773.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Next big resistance lies at 1.0183. Near-term support \t\t\tat 0.9926.
\nAUDUSD BEARISH Recovery eyes 0.9818 resistance but overall outlook \t\t\tis bearish. Expect losses to target 0.9537 and 0.9477 next.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Abrupt fall through 1.0076 brings focus on the \t\t\t0.9978\/31 support zone. Resistance at 1.0190.
\nEURCHF BEARISH While resistance at 1.3229 breakout low holds, expect \t\t\tlosses to target 1.2933 and 1.2766 next.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Focus is on 0.8329; a break here would expose 0.8202. \t\t\tResistance at 0.8564.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Decline through 108.35 and 107.73 would open up the \t\t\tway towards 105.44 key low. Near-term resistance at 111.98.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FX markets were relatively quiet during the Asia session, and the price action was subdued. EURUSD traded 1.3188-1.3233, USDJPY 83.96-83.56. Earlier, some better US data helped push US equities higher,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16214\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}