{"id":16158,"date":"2010-12-02T08:45:31","date_gmt":"2010-12-02T13:45:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=16158"},"modified":"2010-12-02T08:45:31","modified_gmt":"2010-12-02T13:45:31","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-167","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/12\/02\/forex-daily-market-commentary-167\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

FX markets were generally quiet during the Asia session as news flow \t\t\twas in short supply. EURUSD traded 1.3088-1.3150, USDJPY \t\t\t84.05-84.35. Nevertheless, risk seeking sentiment has clearly \t\t\tenjoyed a modest revival over the past 24 hours. Tightening European \t\t\tsovereign bond spreads have helped and, justified or not, \t\t\texpectations are rising that a significant European policy \t\t\tannouncement may be in the pipeline.
\nAsian equities are ahead at the time of writing, and US stocks \t\t\tfinished stronger earlier, helped by unconfirmed reports of \t\t\tpotential US backing for a larger European rescue effort via IMF \t\t\tfunds. ISM Manufacturing edged down as expected but it still \t\t\tcontinues to signal above-trend growth. The ADP private payroll \t\t\testimate beat consensus and supports our economists’ above-consensus \t\t\t+175k forecast for the upcoming nonfarm private payroll estimate. \t\t\tThe Fed’s latest Beige Book reflected responses before November 19 \t\t\tbut nevertheless sounded more positive than the prior report.
\n EUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The ECB is due to announce its latest policy decision today. While \t\t\tmarket participants may think the ECB will introduce significant \t\t\tpolicy measures, our fixed income strategists think ECB President \t\t\tTrichet’s press conference runs the risk of disappointing those \t\t\texpectations. This would likely put renewed pressure on the euro \t\t\tagain.
\nA Spanish 10-year auction is due and could be significant for the \t\t\teuro, although the nature of the auctions means that the results \t\t\tcould be misleading, as primary dealers tend to go short in the run \t\t\tup and, as a consequence, the auctions themselves can be well bid. \t\t\tYesterday, the Portuguese 12month bill auction passed largely \t\t\twithout incident though funding costs obviously remain elevated.
\nIreland’s manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 51.2 but the export \t\t\tbalance retreated a little to 54.7. With the country highly \t\t\tdependent on the fortunes of its export sector going forward, our \t\t\tEuropean economists note that they are unlikely to achieve the \t\t\tGovernment’s GDP growth forecast of 1.75% for next year. On the \t\t\tother hand, German and French manufacturing PMIs were relatively \t\t\tbetter as they showed evidence of a strong manufacturing recovery. \t\t\tBut Spanish PMI was down to 50, with the French reading of 57.9 the \t\t\thighest since September 2000.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The PMI print for November provided a very strong reading of 58.0, \t\t\tdriven by an employment index which is at the highest level since \t\t\tthe survey began in 1992. UK Nationwide house price inflation fell \t\t\tby -0.3% y\/y, in line with consensus, and continuing the recent \t\t\tdownward trend.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The AUD slipped when October retail sales came in weaker than \t\t\texpected, falling -1.1% m\/m (cons. +0.4%, prev. +0.1%). This is the \t\t\tfastest pace of contraction since July 2009.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURCHF 1.3229 resistance.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Clearance of 1.2988 exposes 1.2796 ahead of 1.2588. \t\t\tResistance at 1.3150.
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Recovery held at 84.41; breach of the level would \t\t\texpose 85.40 reaction high. Initial support at 82.79.
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Sell-off from 1.6299 found support at 1.5485; move \t\t\tbelow the level would expose 1.5297. Near-term resistance at 1.5773.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Next big resistance lies at 1.0183. Near-term support \t\t\tat 0.9926.
\nAUDUSD BEARISH Currently holds support at 0.9537 ahead of 0.9477 \t\t\tFibonacci level. Resistance at 0.9712.
\nUSDCAD BULLISH Remains constructive above 1.0076 keeping our focus \t\t\ton the upside. Initial resistance lies at 1.0287 ahead of 1.0374.
\nEURCHF BEARISH While resistance at 1.3229 breakout low holds, expect \t\t\tlosses to target 1.2933 and 1.2766 next.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Focus is on 0.8329; a break here would expose 0.8202. \t\t\tResistance at 0.8449.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Decline through 108.35 and 107.73 would open up the \t\t\tway towards 105.44 key low. Near-term resistance at 111.98.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FX markets were generally quiet during the Asia session as news flow was in short supply. EURUSD traded 1.3088-1.3150, USDJPY 84.05-84.35. Nevertheless, risk seeking sentiment has clearly enjoyed a modest revival over the past 24 hours. Tightening European sovereign<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16158"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16158\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}