{"id":16118,"date":"2010-12-01T08:45:13","date_gmt":"2010-12-01T13:45:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=16118"},"modified":"2010-12-01T08:45:13","modified_gmt":"2010-12-01T13:45:13","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-166","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/12\/01\/forex-daily-market-commentary-166\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Safe-haven currencies remained supported in Asia Wednesday on \t\t\tescalating concerns over Eurozone sovereign risk, but the dollar \t\t\tfailed to make any lasting gains. EURUSD traded 1.2971-1.3039, \t\t\tUSDJPY 83.38-83.72.
\nUS data was generally positive. The Conference Board consumer \t\t\tconfidence index and the Chicago PMI beat expectations. Weekly store \t\t\tsales showed solid gains, though the S&P\/Case Shiller home price \t\t\tindex was below consensus. ISM Manufacturing and the Fed’s Beige \t\t\tBook are due and releases should again play a secondary role to \t\t\tbroader Eurozone concerns. We remain constructive on the dollar in \t\t\tthe current environment.
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro remains under pressure as contagion fears persist. ECB \t\t\tPresident Trichet said “observers are tending to underestimate the \t\t\tdetermination of governments” and he doesn’t believe Eurozone \t\t\tfinancial stability could be called into question. Trichet said ECB \t\t\tbond purchases are ongoing and “we will see what we decide” on the \t\t\tprogram in the future.
\nS&P placed Portugal on watch negative, with a Reuters headline \t\t\tsuggesting that this was to reflect “risks from possible recourse to \t\t\tofficial funding by [the] government”. Comments from the Portuguese \t\t\tPrime Minister hit the wires immediately after the S&P negative \t\t\tcredit watch headlines, and quoted him as saying that reports of \t\t\tpressure on Portugal to ask for a bailout are not true and he \t\t\tremains convinced that decisions by Brussels will make yields \t\t\tretreat.
\nIMF First Deputy Managing Director Lipsky said that “the notion that \t\t\tthe euro is under threat is wildly exaggerated given what’s \t\t\thappening in markets.” But Bofinger, an economic adviser to the \t\t\tGerman government, said the risks to the euro are enormous and \t\t\tGermany has to decide if it is worth keeping.
\nEurozone unemployment was unchanged at 10.1% on an aggregate basis, \t\t\talthough the different figures released across Germany, France and \t\t\tthe peripherals highlight the diverging paths of the member states. \t\t\tThe Eurozone CPI estimate was unchanged as expected at 1.9% y\/y.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

BoJ policy board member Suda said there is a strong chance Japan’s \t\t\teconomy could contract in Q4, and that the risk of a prolonged \t\t\tperiod of economic weakness is high. On the policy front, she \t\t\tdismissed the idea of cutting the interest rate the Bank currently \t\t\tpays on reserves, but said the BoJ has the option of boosting the \t\t\tsize of its asset purchase fund. Intriguingly, she said the chances \t\t\tof the BoJ buying foreign bonds in future is very low, but not zero. \t\t\tSuda said that, for now at least, the costs of any such approach \t\t\twould outweigh the benefits.
\n CAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Q3 GDP in Canada was lower than expected at 1.0% although Q2 was \t\t\trevised slightly higher. The monthly GDP reading for September \t\t\tshowed a contraction, the first since August 2009. The Canadian \t\t\tdollar weakened on the release but held in relatively well given the \t\t\treduced risk-seeking across the board.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The AUD weakened after Q3 GDP growth missed expectations, only \t\t\tmanaging to rise +0.2% q\/q (cons. 0.4%, prev. 1.1%). Our Australian \t\t\teconomics team note that the weaker print raises the risk that the \t\t\tRBA stays on hold for longer. They now acknowledge the risk that \t\t\trate hikes currently forecast for H1 2011 may not materialise until \t\t\tH2 2011, which would allow the economy more time to strengthen.<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nAUDUSD clears 0.9542.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Clearance of 1.2988 exposes 1.2796 ahead of 1.2588. \t\t\tResistance at 1.3150.
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Recovery held at 84.41; breach of the level would \t\t\texpose 85.40 reaction high. Initial support at 82.79.
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Violation of 1.5509 exposes 1.5297. Near-term \t\t\tresistance at 1.5773.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Upside potential held at 1.0054 ahead of 1.0183. \t\t\tNear-term support at 0.9849.
\nAUDUSD BEARISH Push below 0.9542 opens up the way towards 0.9477 \t\t\tFibonacci support. Resistance at 0.9712.
\nUSDCAD BULLISH Clears 1.0264, room for 1.0374 next resistance. \t\t\tNear-term support at 1.0171.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Move below 1.3072 leaves little support till 1.2766 \t\t\tkey low. Near-term resistance at 1.3132.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Break of 0.8402 opens up the way towards 0.8329 and \t\t\t0.8202 next. Resistance at 0.8449.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Decline through 109.35 exposes 107.73 and 105.44 key \t\t\tlow. Near-term resistance at 110.69 intraday high.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Safe-haven currencies remained supported in Asia Wednesday on escalating concerns over Eurozone sovereign risk, but the dollar failed to make any lasting gains. EURUSD traded 1.2971-1.3039, USDJPY 83.38-83.72.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16118\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}