{"id":16067,"date":"2010-11-30T08:32:53","date_gmt":"2010-11-30T13:32:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=16067"},"modified":"2010-11-30T08:32:53","modified_gmt":"2010-11-30T13:32:53","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-165","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/30\/forex-daily-market-commentary-165\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar consolidated during the Asia session given the general \t\t\tlack of newsflow. EURUSD traded 1.3076-1.3150, USDJPY 83.83-84.41. \t\t\tAsian equities are broadly weaker at the time of writing, and the \t\t\tS&P 500 earlier finished fractionally in the red. Concern over \t\t\tEurozone sovereign risk remains the primary driver of the dollar for \t\t\tnow, and so any further widening of Eurozone bond spreads will \t\t\tlikely continue to be dollar supportive. However, there are plenty \t\t\tof US data releases also due out this week and any positive \t\t\tsurprises could further bolster the case of dollar bulls such as \t\t\tourselves. We maintain our 3m EURUSD forecast of 1.25. Ahead in the \t\t\tUS today, we have S&P\/Case Shiller data, Chicago PMI, and the \t\t\tConference Board consumer confidence index. Minneapolis Fed \t\t\tPresident Kocherlakota and Fed Chairman Bernanke are also scheduled \t\t\tto speak.
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Eurozone sovereign spreads continued to widen despite the financial \t\t\trescue of Ireland. The package did little to dissuade contagion \t\t\tfears and a poor Italian auction also put upward pressure on \t\t\tsovereign yields. Spanish and Italian 10y spreads over Germany \t\t\treached euro-era record wides of 265bp and 191bp according to \t\t\tBloomberg. And despite the Eurogroup’s statement regarding ‘private \t\t\tsector involvement’ post 2013, the market appears to be questioning \t\t\tthe assurances for bonds issued before this date.
\nThe fixed interest rate charged on Greece’s loan will be increased \t\t\tto 5.8%, to bring it into line with the terms of Ireland’s loan. The \t\t\trepayment schedule will also be extended out to 2021.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The jobless rate for October unexpectedly ticked higher to 5.1% from \t\t\t5.0% previously. Economy Minister Kaieda said Japan’s economy is \t\t\tstalling, and the employment situation remains severe. He said the \t\t\trise in JGB yields reflects a similar trend globally, and that he \t\t\twill continue to watch the impact of the BoJ’s latest easing \t\t\tefforts.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)released its latest \t\t\tforecast for the UK economy with GDP growth for 2010 unsurprisingly \t\t\trevised up from 1.2% to 1.8%. GDP growth for 2011 was revised down \t\t\tfrom 2.3% to 2.1% versus our economist’s forecast of 2.3%. The OBR \t\t\talso said the UK has more than a 50% chance of meeting its fiscal \t\t\tmandate and the budget deficit forecasts are in line with earlier \t\t\tforecasts.
\n CAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Canada’s current account deficit widened by $4.6 bn to record $17.5 \t\t\tbn in the third quarter, well above consensus estimates. Up next is \t\t\tGDP for Q3 and September. Monthly GDP should show decreased growth \t\t\tand the quarterly GDP figure will also show a drop from the previous \t\t\tquarter, though it will still show positive growth.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The AUD got a boost from a strong bounce in October building \t\t\tapprovals which came in at +9.3% m\/m (cons. 1.4%, prev. -5.3%). The \t\t\tcurrent account deficit was larger than expected. Our Australian \t\t\teconomics team are below consensus on the Q3 GDP report due out \t\t\ttomorrow, expecting to see a headline print of +0.3% q\/q (cons. 0.4% \t\t\tq\/q).
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURCHF testing 1.3072.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; the pair targets 1.2988 with \t\t\tscope for 1.2588 next. Resistance at 1.3354.
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Recovery through 83.99 exposes 85.40 reaction high \t\t\tahead of 85.93. Initial support at 83.57.
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Break of 1.5650 exposes 1.5509 and 1.5297 next. \t\t\tNear-term resistance at 1.5773.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Upside potential held at 1.0054 ahead of 1.0183. \t\t\tNear-term support at 0.9849.
\nAUDUSD BEARISH Focus is on 0.9542 reaction low; a break here would \t\t\texpose 0.9477 Fibonacci support. Resistance at 0.9818.
\nUSDCAD BULLISH Sustained break of 1.0264 and 1.0374 required for \t\t\tconfirmation of bull trend. Support holds at 1.0076.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Following the sudden decline yesterday, the cross now \t\t\teyes 1.3072. Near-term resistance at 1.3401.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Break of 0.8402 would expose 0.8311. Resistance at \t\t\t0.8564.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Clearance of 109.35 would expose 107.73. Near-term \t\t\tresistance at 113.67.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar consolidated during the Asia session given the general lack of newsflow. EURUSD traded 1.3076-1.3150, USDJPY 83.83-84.41. Asian equities are broadly weaker at the time of writing, and the S&P 500 earlier finished fractionally in the red. Concern over Eurozone sovereign…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16067","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16067"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16067\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}