{"id":15881,"date":"2010-11-25T08:49:08","date_gmt":"2010-11-25T13:49:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=15881"},"modified":"2010-11-25T08:49:08","modified_gmt":"2010-11-25T13:49:08","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-162","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/25\/forex-daily-market-commentary-162\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar firmed during the Asia session as speculation about \t\t\tfurther China tightening continued, and the recent confrontation on \t\t\tthe Korean peninsula produced more headlines. Still, the greenback \t\t\tcouldn’t rally against the CAD, which held onto all of yesterday’s \t\t\tgains after the price of crude jumped almost $3\/bbl. EURUSD traded \t\t\t1.3307-1.3371, USDJPY 82.94-83.62. However, Asian stocks managed to \t\t\tmake some modest gains, after the S&P 500 finished 1.5% higher. US \t\t\tdata showed a sharp drop in jobless claims, improving consumer \t\t\tconfidence, strong household income, and accelerating real spending. \t\t\tWeakness in durable orders at the start of Q4 was attributed to \t\t\tpossible distortions due to seasonal adjustment. Treasury yields \t\t\trose across the curve, keeping USDJPY supported. Housing data were \t\t\tmixed, with mortgage applications rising but new home sales and home \t\t\tprices falling. Given the holiday today, the next US economic \t\t\trelease of note will be Chicago PMI on Nov 30, followed by the US \t\t\temployment report and ISM data later in the week. Until then, \t\t\tEurozone concerns will likely remain in focus and should keep EURUSD \t\t\tunder pressure while any further risk-seeking should see the \t\t\thigher-beta G10 currencies gain versus the dollar.
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

ECB Governing Council member Weber conceded that the foundations of \t\t\tEMU have been strongly shaken, but that he sees no reason to doubt \t\t\tthe euro’s future.
\nThe Irish 4-year austerity plan was released and contained few \t\t\tsurprises. Irish Prime Minister Cowen said that a bailout of EUR85 \t\t\tbn has been discussed with EU and IMF officials, though not yet \t\t\tagreed. Irish Finance Minister Lenihan reiterated that any financial \t\t\tassistance would be less than EUR100 mn. While a successful \t\t\tconclusion of negotiations on an aid package could help stem some of \t\t\tthe recent euro downslide, it is difficult to see a more substantial \t\t\teuro recovery ahead of the budget vote, scheduled for Dec. 7.
\nThe German Ifo numbers for November, while skewed to the upside, \t\t\twere broadly mixed. Our European economists note that although the \t\t\tcore figures beat consensus and showed improvements versus the last \t\t\treadings, the widening gap between the current assessment and future \t\t\texpectations suggests that the slowdown in the German recovery may \t\t\tcome later than expected. For the moment however, these readings are \t\t\tnot driving the market and will continue to remain that way until an \t\t\telement of stability is restored to the peripheral bond markets. In \t\t\tother data, Eurozone industrial new orders were below consensus.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

BoJ policy board member Nakamura said that the BoJ needs to continue \t\t\twatching FX moves and their impact. He offered a mixed outlook, \t\t\tsaying that downside risks to Japan are somewhat stronger than \t\t\tupside risks, but that he expects the Fed’s latest easing to have a \t\t\tpositive impact on the global economy.
\n NZD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

MPC members King, Tucker, Dale, Posen and Sentance are due to appear \t\t\tbefore a parliamentary committee today. The simultaneous presence of \t\t\tthe hawkish Sentance and the dovish Posen could make for some \t\t\tvolatile price action in sterling around 1000 GMT.
\nThe second estimate of Q3 GDP was in line with expectations of 2.8% \t\t\ty\/y. The UK’s export sector showed strong performance of 2.2% q\/q, \t\t\twhich provides some evidence that a weaker sterling is benefiting \t\t\tthe economy. Our economists see a slowdown in growth in the UK \t\t\tthrough Q4 and into Q1 of next year due to the fiscal consolidation \t\t\tmeasures feeding their way through to the system and the added \t\t\teffect of the upcoming VAT rate hike.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURUSD targets 1.3265.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Following the break of 1.3363, the pair now targets \t\t\t1.3265. Resistance at 1.3634 ahead of 1.3786.
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Stalled below 83.99; push through the level would \t\t\texpose 85.93. Initial support at 82.40 ahead of 81.66 reaction low.
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Next big support below 1.5650 is defined at1.5297. \t\t\tResistance at 1.5965.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Stalled in front of 0.9998; beyond this the pair has \t\t\troom for a run towards 1.0183. Near-term support at 0.9829.
\nAUDUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative, the pair eyes 0.9652 ahead of \t\t\t0.9542. Resistance at 0.9954 ahead of 1.0183.
\nUSDCAD NEUTRAL Trading in a choppy manner within 1.0380 and 0.9931 \t\t\trange.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Pullback from 1.3674 eyes 1.3229 support, break of \t\t\tthe level would expose 1.3072. Near-term resistance at 1.3488.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Push below 0.8449 exposes 0.8390 next. Initial \t\t\tresistance at 0.8543.
\nEURJPY BULLISH Break of 109.35 would expose 107.73 ahead of 105.44. \t\t\tNear-term resistance at 113.67.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar firmed during the Asia session as speculation about further China tightening continued, and the recent confrontation on the Korean peninsula produced more headlines. Still, the greenback couldn’t rally against the CAD, which held onto all of yesterday’s gains after the price of crude jumped…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15881","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15881","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15881"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15881\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15881"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15881"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15881"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}