{"id":15805,"date":"2010-11-24T08:35:54","date_gmt":"2010-11-24T13:35:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=15805"},"modified":"2010-11-24T08:35:54","modified_gmt":"2010-11-24T13:35:54","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-161","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/24\/forex-daily-market-commentary-161\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar managed to hold onto yesterday’s gains against the euro \t\t\tduring the Asian session, but lost some ground to the Australian and \t\t\tNew Zealand dollars. S&P cut Ireland’s long-term sovereign credit \t\t\trating by two notches to A from AA-. The rating remains on negative \t\t\twatch. EURUSD traded in a 1.3360-1.3419 range, briefly slipping 20 \t\t\tpips on the Ireland downgrade, before recovering. USDJPY traded \t\t\t82.83-83.36. Risk appetite in general remained muted. Asian equities \t\t\twere mixed, after the S&P 500 closed down -1.4%. US data was mixed \t\t\ttoo, with the second estimate of Q3 GDP slightly better than \t\t\texpected and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index above consensus, \t\t\tbut existing home sales disappointed. The latest FOMC minutes were \t\t\tlargely as expected as most officials saw the benefits of QE2 \t\t\toutweighing the costs but there were disagreements as some thought \t\t\tthat more easing would put unwanted pressure on the dollar. The lack \t\t\tof cohesiveness could cast doubt that QE2 lasts beyond the current \t\t\tprescribed June end-date. The FOMC cut the central tendency growth \t\t\tprojections in line with expectations and the QE2 decision. 2011 \t\t\tgrowth was cut to 3.0-3.6% from 3.5-4.2%. 2012 growth was little \t\t\tchanged at 3.6-4.5%. On inflation, core PCE prices for 2010 and 2011 \t\t\twere increased slightly, as were projections for total PCE \t\t\tinflation, and unemployment rate projections were raised across the \t\t\tboard. Ahead we have initial jobless claims, durable goods, new home \t\t\tsales and University of Michigan confidence data in the US.
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

German Chancellor Merkel said the euro is in an “exceptionally \t\t\tserious” situation following Ireland’s request for aid. She said \t\t\tthat while the situation in Ireland is different to that of Greece, \t\t\tit is just as worrying. ECB Governing Council member Nowotny, \t\t\thowever, said it is individual states, not the euro, which are in \t\t\tdanger. He said he does not see any country leaving the euro in 10 \t\t\tyears. ECB Governing Council member Mersch said that contagion is \t\t\tnot afflicting the Eurozone.
\nReuters reported the EU\/IMF will offer EUR85 bn to recapitalize the \t\t\tIrish banks and fund public finances. The main opposition party, \t\t\tFine Gael, later said it will act constructively in the interest of \t\t\tIreland. The government is due to present its austerity plan \t\t\tWednesday. A Moody’s official commented that while Spain is \t\t\tfundamentally strong, they do have concerns on Portugal because of \t\t\tthe banking system’s reliance on ECB Financing.
\nPMIs in the Eurozone all rose more than consensus, following similar \t\t\tresults for France and Germany. Manufacturing at 55.5 and services \t\t\tat 55.2 both beat market expectations, pointing towards a solid \t\t\treading in Q4 GDP. The German Ifo readings are up next.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Finance Minister Noda said Japan must make efforts to ensure that \t\t\tthere is no economic impact from yesterday’s clash on the Korean \t\t\tpeninsula. Economy Minister Kaieda conceded that the economy could \t\t\tbe adversely affected.
\n NZD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

RBNZ Governor Bollard said an improvement in the domestic savings \t\t\trate would take upward pressure off both interest rates and the NZD. \t\t\tHe added it would also reduce New Zealand’s exposure to external \t\t\tshocks.
\n CAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Canadian CPI was above consensus at +2.4% y\/y, suggesting there is \t\t\tscope for a rate hike in the near future. The core figure also \t\t\tsurprised to the upside at +1.8% y\/y. Retail sales were slightly \t\t\tbelow consensus and USDCAD remained largely driven by risk aversion \t\t\tflows, which benefited the US dollar.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURUSD support at 1.3265
\nEURUSD BEARISH Decline through 1.3363 has exposed 1.3265. Resistance \t\t\tat 1.3786 ahead of 1.4282
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Stalls near 83.99; push through the level would \t\t\texpose 85.93. Initial support at 82.40 ahead of 81.66 reaction low
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Move below 1.5840 shifts focus to 1.5650. Resistance \t\t\tat 1.5965 intraday high.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Stalled in front of 0.9998; beyond this the pair has \t\t\troom for a run towards 1.0183. Near-term support at 0.9829
\nAUDUSD BEARISH The pair has support at 0.9652 ahead of 0.9542. \t\t\tResistance at 0.9954 ahead of 1.0183
\nUSDCAD BULLISH Sustained break of 1.0264 and 1.0380 required to \t\t\tconfirm the bull trend. Initial support at 1.0070
\nEURCHF BEARISH Violation of 1.3229 would expose 1.3072. Near-term \t\t\tresistance at 1.3488
\nEURGBP BEARISH Sell-off from 0.8942 violates support at 0.8449 with \t\t\tscope for 0.8390 next. Initial resistance at 0.8598
\nEURJPY BULLISH Violation of 111.05 exposes Fibonacci support at \t\t\t109.35. Near-term resistance at 113.67, yesterday’s high.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar managed to hold onto yesterday’s gains against the euro during the Asian session, but lost some ground to the Australian and New Zealand dollars. S&P cut Ireland’s long-term sovereign credit rating by two notches to A from AA-. The rating remains on negative watch. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15805","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15805"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15805\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}