{"id":15688,"date":"2010-11-22T08:01:21","date_gmt":"2010-11-22T13:01:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=15688"},"modified":"2010-11-22T08:01:21","modified_gmt":"2010-11-22T13:01:21","slug":"are-we-living-in-the-federal-reserves-twilight-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/22\/are-we-living-in-the-federal-reserves-twilight-zone\/","title":{"rendered":"Are We Living in the Federal Reserve&#8217;s Twilight Zone?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/TaipanPublishingGroup.com\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>By Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily, TaipanPublishingGroup.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>n Monday, an old friend sent me a link to a now virally famous  cartoon clip via YouTube. The clip is a depiction of the Federal  Reserve&#8217;s second round of <a title=\"Watch the YouTube Video: Quantitative Easing Explained\" href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=PTUY16CkS-k\" target=\"_blank\">quantitative easing<\/a> in a simplified, humorous manner and has been viewed over 1.6 million  times, not to mention it had a front and center showing on CNBC.<\/p>\n<p>It comically poses questions that pretty much sum up the entire state  of our economy right now. Is this some kind of a nightmare? Are we in  an episode of <em>The<\/em> <em>Twilight Zone<\/em>?<\/p>\n<p>Please watch the clip before you continue.<\/p>\n<p><object classid=\"clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000\" width=\"480\" height=\"385\" codebase=\"http:\/\/download.macromedia.com\/pub\/shockwave\/cabs\/flash\/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0\"><param name=\"allowFullScreen\" value=\"true\" \/><param name=\"allowscriptaccess\" value=\"always\" \/><param name=\"src\" value=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/v\/PTUY16CkS-k?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US\" \/><param name=\"allowfullscreen\" value=\"true\" \/><embed type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" width=\"480\" height=\"385\" src=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/v\/PTUY16CkS-k?fs=1&amp;hl=en_US\" allowscriptaccess=\"always\" allowfullscreen=\"true\"><\/embed><\/object><\/p>\n<p>I couldn&#8217;t have said it better myself.<\/p>\n<p>Quantitative easing, in theory, should put money into consumers&#8217;  hands to spend and into companies&#8217; hands to hire. The Federal Reserve is  worried about deflation.<\/p>\n<p>But is this really the case?<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s take a look at prices of the things over the past year that we use every day and see&#8230;<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<blockquote><p><strong>A party in Beijing&#8217;s Great Hall of the People could be worth four times your money<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s domestic security &#8220;national champion&#8221; was recently given  preferred status in the building of the most expensive, technologically  advanced police state in the history of civilization.<\/p>\n<p>Now, a &#8220;secret&#8221; deal with this company could potentially give one senior Communist official a million-dollar retirement.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Act immediately, and you could make four times your money off this <a title=\"Learn more about this China investment from American Wealth Underground\" href=\"https:\/\/orders.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/CUT\/WCUTLB04\/\" target=\"_blank\">China investment<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3>Energy Prices Are Up&#8230;<\/h3>\n<p>Crude oil futures were trading in the upper $70s in November of 2009  and in early November 2010 spiked up to over $87. That&#8217;s a roughly 13%  jump. In the world of natural gas, we&#8217;re looking at a very similar story  in our cost as consumers. Even though natural gas futures were  flat(ish) compared to last year, you as the end user have been paying  higher prices from April up until September.<\/p>\n<h3>And Are Is Electricity Prices&#8230;<\/h3>\n<p>According to the EIA (<a title=\"U.S. Energy Information Association Website\" href=\"http:\/\/www.eia.doe.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Energy Information Association<\/a>),  our average cost in cents per kilowatt-hour for 2009 was $11.55. Up  until August of this year the average was $11.53, but don&#8217;t forget that  September, October and November are still relatively high usage months  for many homes, so expect that number to rise as well.<\/p>\n<p>Getting to and from your job or job interviews and running errands is  definitely costing you more: The average price of a gallon of gasoline  is up 26.3 cents from a year ago, which represents an almost 9% increase  in cost.<\/p>\n<p>AAA says that the average driver travels 15,000 miles per year.  Assuming two drivers per household getting an average of 20 mpg, that&#8217;s  1,500 gallons of fuel. If fuel jumps another quarter, we are talking a  $750 per year increase for the average couple with no kids.<\/p>\n<h3>And &#8212; You Guessed It &#8212; So Are Food Prices&#8230;<\/h3>\n<p>I always found it humorous when analysts strip out food and energy  when looking at consumer prices! As a human being, I need to keep myself  at a certain temperature and eat and drink just to stay alive! While  energy costs are moving higher, feeding your family is really costing  more than it did last year.<\/p>\n<p>Raw commodities alone are through the roof!<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Wheat was around $4.90 a bushel a year ago, now it&#8217;s about $6.50, +33%.<\/li>\n<li>Corn was trading for $4 a bushel, today $5.50, +27%.<\/li>\n<li>Cotton, sugar, coffee, metals are all soaring to record highs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Raw commodity price increases translate to final product costs.  According to a survey published on Nov. 14 by MKM partners, the price of  an 86-item average grocery list at Walmart (the nation&#8217;s largest  discount retailer) was up 0.6% in only two months, which would put  prices up almost 4% a year from now&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) in its latest report noted a  1.4% increase in food and beverage consumer prices, a 4.8% increase in  transportation costs and a 3.4% rise in medical costs. Apparel was  moderately lower, down 1.2%. Check out the full report from the <a title=\"Download a PDF of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cpi\/cpid1010.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>(By the way, investing doesn&#8217;t have to be complicated. Sign up for <em>Smart Investing Daily<\/em> and let me and fellow editor Sara Nunnally simplify the market with our <a title=\"Sign up for Smart Investing Daily\" href=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/free-signups\/splash\/sid-video-su2.html\" target=\"_self\">easy-to-understand articles<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<h3>The Other Necessities: Employment and Housing<\/h3>\n<p>Currently, 9.6% of the workforce (not population) is unemployed; this  is down just slightly from a year ago. Since December 2009, employment  in the private sector has risen by only 1.1 million, or less than 0.4%.  QE1 did little to help incentivize companies to bolster employment.  Drops in unemployment have been much greater in the past with no QE.<\/p>\n<h3>So What About the Things That Should Be Rising?<\/h3>\n<p>For most Americans, the biggest asset and source of comfort, pride  and shelter is a home. While the stock market is up and mortgage rates  are low, (30-year rates are down about 62 basis points in the past year  according to Freddie Mac), banks are still struggling to let go of their  cash. They are hoarding their cash in record amounts and making it  harder than ever to get a loan. Home prices are actually down an average  of 0.2%<\/p>\n<p>Americans aren&#8217;t seeing huge gains in salary!<\/p>\n<p>I don&#8217;t know of many folks getting big raises in the past year, but according to the BLS, average hourly earnings rose 0<strong>.<\/strong>7%  (seasonally adjusted, which can be tricky) from October 2009 to October  2010. They did note that the average worker is putting in 1.8% more  hours per week (that could be because the average company is trying to  squeeze every last bit of productivity from its existing workers to  stave off hiring new ones that cost money).<\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<blockquote><p><strong>Do You Know What Commodity You Should Be Buying INSTEAD of Gold? <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I know it might sound crazy, but there&#8217;s another commodity out there  even better than gold. It&#8217;s not oil, silver or platinum. In fact, you&#8217;ve  probably never thought about buying a single ounce of this&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>But if the market collapses, it could be even more valuable to you than gold.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Get all the details on this <a title=\"Get all the details on this commodity investment from Wealth Legacy Advisory\" href=\"https:\/\/orders.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/WLA\/WWLAL804\/\" target=\"_blank\">commodity investment<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3>The Bottom Line<\/h3>\n<p>Inflation is present, prices are rising and the statements made in the video are correct to an extent.<\/p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve&#8217;s actions are forcing us to make hard asset  purchases (gold, silver, housing, commodities, etc.) in order to protect  ourselves from inflationary pressures. The problem is that we the  consumers are struggling to not only feed ourselves and our families,  but make ends meet with the ever-increasing costs of goods and services.  Many families either are scared or can&#8217;t afford (or qualify for) a  mortgage, or can&#8217;t afford to buy assets. And these rising costs are  inhibiting our spending, not fueling it.<\/p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve defends its actions by stating that <a title=\"Dust Off Your Shorting Skills as Quantitative Easing 2 Stalls\" href=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/tpg\/taipan-daily\/taipan-daily-111710.html\" target=\"_self\">quantitative easing<\/a> funds won&#8217;t make it to the money supply and cause inflation. But I  think it IS the average American&#8217;s money supply that needs boosting  right now.<\/p>\n<p>If you have the means, look at distressed housing, protect yourself  by balancing your portfolio with hard assets, but don&#8217;t overload &#8212; we  now have China&#8217;s monetary tightening to contend with&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>P.S. If you want to break free from whatever&#8217;s been holding you back and killing your dreams<\/strong> &#8212; and achieve all your goals faster &#8212; then you need to get your hands on a copy of Michael Masterson&#8217;s new book <em>The Pledge: Your Master Plan for an Abundant Life<\/em>. <a title=\"The Pledge: Your Master Plan for an Abundant Life\" href=\"http:\/\/thepledgebook.com\/promos\/pledge2010.html\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to get all the details.<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>About the Author<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>Jared Levy is Co-Editor of <em><a title=\"Sign up for Smart Investing Daily\" href=\"http:\/\/www.taipanpublishinggroup.com\/free-signups\/splash\/smart-investing-su.html\" target=\"_blank\">Smart Investing Daily<\/a><\/em>,  a free e-letter dedicated to guiding investors through the world of  finance in order to make smart investing decisions. His passion is  teaching the public how to successfully trade and invest while keeping  risk low.<\/p>\n<p>Jared has spent the past 15 years of his career in the finance and  options industry, working as a retail money manager, a floor specialist  for Fortune 1000 companies, and most recently a senior derivatives  strategist. He was one of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange&#8217;s  youngest-ever members to become a market maker on three major U.S.  exchanges.<\/p>\n<p>He has been featured in several industry publications and won an Emmy for his daily video &#8220;Trader Cast.&#8221; Jared serves as a CNBC <em>Fast Money<\/em> contributor and has appeared on Bloomberg, Fox Business, CNN Radio, <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em> radio and is regularly quoted by Reuters, <em>The Wall Street Journal<\/em> and Yahoo! Finance, among other publications.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Jared Levy, Editor, Smart Investing Daily, TaipanPublishingGroup.com n Monday, an old friend sent me a link to a now virally famous cartoon clip via YouTube. The clip is a depiction of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s second round of quantitative easing in a simplified, humorous manner and has been viewed over 1.6 million times, not to &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/22\/are-we-living-in-the-federal-reserves-twilight-zone\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Are We Living in the Federal Reserve&#8217;s Twilight Zone?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15688\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}