{"id":15540,"date":"2010-11-18T08:34:14","date_gmt":"2010-11-18T13:34:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=15540"},"modified":"2010-11-18T08:34:14","modified_gmt":"2010-11-18T13:34:14","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-157","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/18\/forex-daily-market-commentary-157\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar weakened broadly during the Asia session, as the market \t\t\tlooked back on yesterday’s weak US CPI report, and ahead to the \t\t\tarrival of a delegation of EU, IMF and ECB officials in Dublin \t\t\ttoday. The market is coming around to the view that an Irish bailout \t\t\tcould eventually be on the cards, but the Irish government still \t\t\tinsists that this is not inevitable. EURUSD traded 1.3511-1.3608 and \t\t\tUSDJPY 83.11-83.40. Asian equities were also stronger after the S&P \t\t\t500 finished flat. US core CPI in October was flat m\/m for the third \t\t\tconsecutive month (cons: +0.1%), but the annualized figure was more \t\t\tstriking, showing a feeble rise of just +0.6% y\/y. This was the \t\t\tslowest pace of growth in the history of the survey, which dates \t\t\tfrom 1957, and goes some way to justifying the latest FOMC decision \t\t\tto launch a new round of quantitative easing. In addition, October \t\t\thousing starts were also much weaker than expected, falling to an \t\t\tannual rate of only 519k (cons: 598k).
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

While Ireland has not asked for a bailout, consultations with the \t\t\tIMF, the ECB, and the European Commission are due to begin in Dublin \t\t\ttoday. EU Commissioner Rehn has said that these talks can be \t\t\tregarded as preparation for a potential aid program for Ireland, \t\t\tshould it be necessary.
\nA major London-based clearing house increased the margin it requires \t\t\tfor holding Irish government bonds to 30%, adding further pressures \t\t\tto Ireland.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

As expected, the BoE minutes from the Nov. 4 policy meeting showed \t\t\tan 8-1 vote split on both QE and interest rates. MPC member Posen \t\t\tvoted again for \u00a350 bn in fresh QE, while MPC member Sentance wanted \t\t\ta +25bp rate hike.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

RBA Deputy Governor Battellino said that, although the strong AUD is \t\t\thelpful for the economy overall, it is hurting the tourism industry. \t\t\tHe noted the strength of the AUD is a natural result of the boom in \t\t\tcommodity resources, implying that he felt it is justified by \t\t\teconomic fundamentals.
\nAverage weekly wages in Australia grew at a slower than expected \t\t\tpace in August, rising only +4.5% y\/y (cons. \t\t\t \t\t\t5.4%, prev. 5.3%).
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURGBP 0.8449 support.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Move below 1.3363 would expose 1.3265. Resistance at \t\t\t1.3777 ahead of 1.4282.
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Focus on 83.99, only a break above 85.93 would \t\t\tconfirm a bull trend. Initial support at 82.40 ahead of 81.66 \t\t\treaction low.
\nGBPUSD NEUTRAL 1.6379 and 1.5651 mark the near-term directional \t\t\ttriggers.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Rise above 0.9972 has exposed 1.0183. Near-term \t\t\tsupport at 0.9829.
\nAUDUSD BEARISH Look for a break below 0.9652 for confirmation of \t\t\tbear trend. Initial resistance at 1.0183.
\nUSDCAD NEUTRAL While resistance at 1.0380 holds, support comes in at \t\t\t1.0070 ahead of 0.9931.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Focus is on 1.3229; a break here would expose 1.3072 \t\t\tand 1.2766 next. Only a push above 1.3834 would put odds against the \t\t\tongoing trend.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Sell-off from 0.8942 found support at 0.8449. Next \t\t\tsupport at 0.8390.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Remains heavy below 115.68; break of 111.05 reaction \t\t\tlow would expose 107.73.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar weakened broadly during the Asia session, as the market looked back on yesterday’s weak US CPI report, and ahead to the arrival of a delegation of EU, IMF and ECB officials in Dublin today. The market is coming around to the view that an Irish bailout could eventually be on the cards<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15540"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15540\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}