{"id":15499,"date":"2010-11-17T08:44:23","date_gmt":"2010-11-17T13:44:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=15499"},"modified":"2010-11-17T08:44:23","modified_gmt":"2010-11-17T13:44:23","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-156","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/17\/forex-daily-market-commentary-156\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar’s rebound paused during the Asia session as holiday \t\t\tconditions prevailed across much of Southeast Asia and the Middle \t\t\tEast. EURUSD traded 1.3448-1.3516, and USDJPY 83.24-83.59. Asian \t\t\tequities were generally weaker after the S&P 500 fell -1.6%. Fed \t\t\tspeakers continued to defend the recent FOMC decision with Atlanta \t\t\tFed President Lockhart saying it was not designed to engineer a \t\t\tdepreciation of the dollar. Opinions were also offered on whether \t\t\tthe target of $600 bn would be reached or even exceeded. Chicago Fed \t\t\tPresident Evans said that the figure of $600 bn was “a good place to \t\t\tstart” and Boston Fed President Rosengren said that he expects the \t\t\t$600 bn target to be reached. Both said bond purchases could be \t\t\textended further, if the economic conditions called for it. However, \t\t\tSt. Louis Fed President Bullard was less sure. He said he was not in \t\t\tfavour of setting the $600bn goal in the first place as “there is no \t\t\tsense in prejudging” how much the Fed will ultimately purchase. He \t\t\tadded that a premature end to the bond buying program is a \t\t\t“possibility” but that “the economy would have to improve a fair \t\t\tamount” for this to happen. Ahead, US October CPI is due for \t\t\trelease.
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ireland’s Prime Minister Cowen said that the government has not \t\t\tasked for a sovereign bailout, but conceded that “we are prepared to \t\t\twork with our counterparts in the euro area to see in what way we \t\t\tcan&normalise market conditions”. Cowen added that Ireland was \t\t\tpre-funded until mid-2011 and said the 4-year plan for deficit \t\t\treduction would be released next week. Finance Minister Lenihan \t\t\tlater said that “any assistance in relation to resolving the problem \t\t\tof the Irish banking system will be most welcome”, although he added \t\t\tthat financial assistance is not inevitable.
\nWhile Ireland has not asked for aid, consultations with the IMF, the \t\t\tECB, and the European Commission are due to begin later this week. \t\t\tEU Commissioner Rehn said that these talks can be regarded as \t\t\tpreparation for a potential aid program for Ireland, should it be \t\t\tnecessary.
\nSeparately, the Eurogroup’s Junker said the Eurogroup would support \t\t\tIreland if it asked for aid. He also welcomed Portugal’s commitment \t\t\tto cut the budget deficit to 4.5% of GDP and called on Greece to be \t\t\tmore specific regarding its 2011 austerity measures.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Japan’s Finance Minister Noda brought back intervention speculation \t\t\twhen he reiterated his commitment to take decisive steps on forex \t\t\tincluding intervention when necessary. He also said September’s \t\t\tintervention was driven by the need to control excessive currency \t\t\tflows, and was therefore not the start of a policy of competitive \t\t\tdevaluation.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

UK consumer price inflation slightly surprised to the upside, and \t\t\tBoE Governor King wrote another letter to Chancellor Osborne to \t\t\texplain. In line with the recent change in forecast, CPI increased \t\t\tto 3.2% y\/y and seems set to stay in excess of 3% through Q1. In his \t\t\tletter, King said the rise in inflation has been driven by temporary \t\t\tfactors such as the VAT rate hike, but the general trend should fall \t\t\tback in line with target in the medium term, as the effects of \t\t\tfiscal austerity feed through. Speaking later in the day, King said \t\t\tthat the BoE could do further QE if it wanted to.
\nThe minutes are due today from the BoE’s Nov. 4 policy meeting, \t\t\twhere no change was made to policy. At the October meeting, MPC \t\t\tmember Posen voted for ?50 bn in fresh QE, while MPC member Sentance \t\t\twanted a rate hike. Sterling is likely to be highly sensitive to any \t\t\tchange in the voting arithmetic.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Q3 wage price index rose by +1.1% q\/q, the fastest pace in \t\t\talmost 2 years. Our Australian economists note that the annualized \t\t\trate of growth in skilled vacancies moderated somewhat, signaling a \t\t\tslower pace of jobs growth ahead. Our economists conclude that \t\t\ttoday’s data is consistent with the RBA’s central case, meaning that \t\t\thigher interest rates will likely be needed next year.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nAUDUSD eyes 0.9652 support
\nEURUSD BEARISH Breach of 1.3574 has exposed 1.3363. Resistance at \t\t\t1.3777 ahead of 1.4282
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Focus on 83.99, only a break above 85.93 would \t\t\tconfirm a bull trend. Initial support at 82.40 ahead of 81.66 \t\t\treaction low
\nGBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance at 1.6379 but support at 1.5804 is in \t\t\tview.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Rise above 0.9972 has exposed 1.0183. Near-term \t\t\tsupport at 0.9829
\nAUDUSD BEARISH Pullback from 1.0183 eyes 0.9652; next support at \t\t\t0.9542 reaction low
\nUSDCAD NEUTRAL Break of 1.0380 would put odds in favor of bull \t\t\ttrend. Downside risks no more than 0.9931
\nEURCHF BEARISH Push through 1.3229 and 1.3072 would expose 1.2766. \t\t\tSustained break of 1.3834 required for resumption of bull trend.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Sell-off from 0.8942 held at 0.8449. Next support at \t\t\t0.8390
\nEURJPY BEARISH Remains heavy below 115.68; break of 111.05 reaction \t\t\tlow would expose 107.73.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar’s rebound paused during the Asia session as holiday conditions prevailed across much of Southeast Asia and the Middle East. EURUSD traded 1.3448-1.3516, and USDJPY 83.24-83.59. Asian equities were generally weaker after the S&P 500 fell -1.6%. Fed speakers continued to defend<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15499","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15499"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15499\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15499"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15499"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15499"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}