{"id":15454,"date":"2010-11-16T08:25:33","date_gmt":"2010-11-16T13:25:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=15454"},"modified":"2010-11-16T08:25:33","modified_gmt":"2010-11-16T13:25:33","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-155","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/16\/forex-daily-market-commentary-155\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar weakened during the US session after New York Fed \t\t\tPresident Dudley said that the Fed’s latest round of Treasury \t\t\tpurchases is equivalent to a 75bp cut in the policy rate. EURUSD \t\t\ttraded 1.3561-1.3656, and USDJPY 82.72-83.27. FOMC Vice Chairman \t\t\tYellen earlier sounded extremely dovish and said she saw “inflation \t\t\tlingering near current levels for a long time”. Yellen said she \t\t\tcould be in favour of extended purchases beyond June “if I were to \t\t\tcontinue to be concerned about the outlook and thought that further \t\t\tpurchases could work.” Both speakers also said that the Fed’s latest \t\t\tpolicy initiative was not designed to weaken the dollar. The S&P 500 \t\t\tfinished down -0.12%. US data were largely overshadowed by Eurozone \t\t\tcomments on the developing sovereign risk story. The NY Fed’s Empire \t\t\tState manufacturing current activity index plunged to -11.1, weaker \t\t\tthan expected. In contrast, total retail sales were better than \t\t\texpected at 1.2% (cons: +0.7%, UBSe: +0.6%) in October after an \t\t\tupwardly revised 0.7% gain in September (was 0.6%). Ex-autos sales \t\t\trose in line with expectations: up 0.4% after an upwardly revised \t\t\t0.5% (was 0.4%) in September. Ahead, US October PPI, September TIC \t\t\tdata, October industrial production, and the November NAHB housing \t\t\tmarket index will be released.
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Various policymakers across Europe commented on the Irish situation \t\t\tyesterday. An Irish junior minister said that Ireland has not \t\t\tapproached the EU or IMF to arrange a sovereign bailout. However, \t\t\tdespite the denials from the Irish government, media reports \t\t\tcontinue to run the story. Irish opposition spokesperson Noonan said \t\t\the believed that European intervention for Ireland is underway and \t\t\tthat matters could come to a head over the next 24 hours.
\nThe FT reported that Portugal’s Finance Minister said the risk was \t\t\thigh that Portugal would need external assistance. However, in \t\t\tsubsequent comments, he said there is “no imminent” request for \t\t\tforeign aid and that Portugal will maintain its strategy of raising \t\t\tfinancing from the markets.
\nGreek debt figures provided grim reading as the level of government \t\t\tdebt in 2009 was revised up to 126.8% of GDP from 115.1%. The \t\t\trevisions from eurostat also revised the budget deficit upwards to \t\t\t15.4% of GDP.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ahead of the BoE minutes on Wednesday, MPC member Martin Weale \t\t\tsuggested that the committee will be split as he expressed his \t\t\tworries about the effectiveness of any monetary tightening or \t\t\tloosening.
\n CHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The combined PPI and IPI index in Switzerland was slightly lower \t\t\tthan market consensus at -0.4% (m\/m) and +0.3% (y\/y), providing \t\t\tfurther evidence that pricing pressures remain largely subdued.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The minutes from the RBA’s Nov 2 policy meeting revealed that the \t\t\tdecision to hike the policy rate by +25bp was finely-balanced. \t\t\tUltimately the policy board chose to be forward-looking on \t\t\tinflation, although a strong AUD, tame CPI, and subdued credit \t\t\tgrowth were noted as reasons that argued in favour of not hiking at \t\t\tthat particular meeting.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURUSD support at 1.3235.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Breach of 1.3574 exposes 1.3235. Resistance at 1.3777 \t\t\tahead of 1.4282.
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Focus on 83.99, only a break above 85.93 would \t\t\tconfirm a bull trend. Initial support at 81.66 reaction low.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH Upside potential holds below 1.6379 ahead of 1.6458. \t\t\tSupport holds at 1.5952.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Push through 0.9972 would expose 1.0183. Support at \t\t\t0.9671 ahead of 0.9463.
\nAUDUSD NEUTRAL Pullback from 1.0183 has support at 0.9652 ahead of \t\t\t0.9542 reaction low.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Stalled in front of 0.9931, push through the level \t\t\twould expose 0.9820 with scope for 0.9712 next. Resistance at \t\t\t1.0156.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Push through 1.3229 and 1.3072 would expose 1.2766. \t\t\tSustained break of 1.3834 required for resumption of bull trend.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Move below 0.8390 would expose 0.8311. Resistance at \t\t\t0.8638.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Remains heavy below 115.68; break of 111.05 reaction \t\t\tlow would expose 107.73.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Various policymakers across Europe commented on the Irish situation yesterday. An Irish junior minister said that Ireland has not approached the EU or IMF to arrange a sovereign bailout. However, despite the denials from the Irish government, media reports continue to run the story.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15454","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15454"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15454\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15454"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15454"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15454"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}