{"id":15416,"date":"2010-11-15T08:48:06","date_gmt":"2010-11-15T13:48:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=15416"},"modified":"2010-11-15T08:48:06","modified_gmt":"2010-11-15T13:48:06","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-154","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/15\/forex-daily-market-commentary-154\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

FX markets trod water during the Asia session as investors looked to \t\t\tthe opening of the Eurozone sovereign debt markets to provide some \t\t\tdirection. EURUSD traded 1.3654-1.3751, and USDJPY 82.40-82.78. \t\t\tSpeculation continues in the press that a bailout of Ireland could \t\t\tcome as soon as this week, although Irish government officials have \t\t\tstrenuously denied this, and IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn also \t\t\tdismissed the suggestions. The S&P500 finished down -1.2% on Friday, \t\t\tafter global equities succumbed to the general risk-off mood. The \t\t\tUniversity of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 69.3 in \t\t\tearly November (cons. 69.0) from 67.7 in October. Our US economists \t\t\tnote that the rise reflected improvement in both current conditions \t\t\tand expectations. Long-term inflation expectations in the survey \t\t\twere unchanged at 2.8% – right in the middle of their longer-term \t\t\trange. The New York Fed began its first purchases of US Treasury \t\t\tsecurities under the Fed’s latest round of quantitative easing. \t\t\tPurchases worth $7.2 bn were concentrated in the 4-6 year segment of \t\t\tthe curve, but yields still managed to rise on the day. Richmond Fed \t\t\tPresident Lacker said it is “unfair” to claim that the Fed’s \t\t\tdecision to return to quantitative easing was designed to weaken the \t\t\tdollar. \t\t\tToday, retail sales and manufacturing data are due.
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Although the spread of Irish and Portuguese sovereign bonds over \t\t\tbunds tightened significantly on Friday, concern over Eurozone \t\t\tsovereign risk continues to be a focal point for financial markets. \t\t\tSeveral Irish lawmakers, including Prime Minister Cowen and Finance \t\t\tMinister Lenihan, dismissed speculation that a bailout package for \t\t\tIreland was being prepared. Justice Minister Ahern described the \t\t\tbailout talk as “fiction”. IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn said \t\t\t“so far I have not had a request, and I think Ireland can manage \t\t\twell”.
\nEU, IMF and ECB officials are scheduled to begin a visit to Greece \t\t\ttoday to assess progress on fiscal matters. If satisfactory, Greece \t\t\tcould receive a further \u20ac9 bn in cash as part of the bailout plan \t\t\tagreed in May. Greece’s Prime Minister Papandreou said the term over \t\t\twhich Greece repays the bailout loan may be extended.
\nPress speculation suggests that Eurostat could today revise up \t\t\tGreece’s 2009 budget deficit to 15.3%. On Friday, German GDP growth \t\t\tslowed to +0.7% q\/q for Q3, broadly in line with consensus, thanks \t\t\tin part to the uncertain global outlook and the stronger euro. \t\t\tHowever, the recovery remains on a stable footing and the outlook \t\t\tfor Europe’s largest economy is far superior to that of its peers. \t\t\tThe Eurozone growth reading was also down slightly, falling to +0.4% \t\t\tq\/q compared to +1% q\/q for the previous quarter.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

GDP for Q3 came in much stronger than expected at +0.9% (cons. \t\t\t0.6%), and +3.9% y\/y (cons. 2.5%). Despite the positive surprise, \t\t\tEconomy Minister Kaieda offered a sombre assessment, saying the Q3 \t\t\tGDP expansion was due to a temporary rise in consumption, and that \t\t\tthe Japanese economy is still at a standstill. He added that the \t\t\tyen’s rise may weigh on the economy further.
\n CHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Our team of analysts is expecting an escalation of sovereign risk \t\t\tconcerns within the Eurozone.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURUSD 1.3235 support.
\nEURUSD BEARISH Violation of 1.3635 has triggered the negative tone. \t\t\tNext support at 1.3235.
\nUSDJPY BULLISH Recovery through 82.80 exposes 83.99. Only a break \t\t\tabove 85.93 would confirm a bull trend. Initial support at 81.66 \t\t\treaction low.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH Focus is maintained on 1.6379 ahead of 1.6458. \t\t\tSupport holds at 1.5952.
\nUSDCHF BULLISH Break of 1.9972 would expose 1.0183. Support at \t\t\t0.9463.
\nAUDUSD NEUTRAL Pullback from 1.0183 has support at 0.9652 ahead of \t\t\t0.9542 reaction low.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Stalled in front of 0.9931, push through the level \t\t\twould expose 0.9820 with scope for 0.9712 next. Resistance at \t\t\t1.0156.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Violation of 1.3265 has exposed 1.3072. Sustained \t\t\tbreak of 1.3834 required for resumption of bull trend.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Momentum is negative; move below 0.8390 would expose \t\t\t0.8311. Resistance at 0.8638.
\nEURJPY NEUTRAL 115.68 and 111.05 reaction low mark the key near-term \t\t\tdirectional triggers.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

FX markets trod water during the Asia session as investors looked to the opening of the Eurozone sovereign debt markets to provide some direction. EURUSD traded 1.3654-1.3751, and USDJPY 82.40-82.78. Speculation continues in the press that a bailout of Ireland<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15416"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15416\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}