{"id":15256,"date":"2010-11-11T09:00:47","date_gmt":"2010-11-11T14:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=15256"},"modified":"2010-11-11T09:00:47","modified_gmt":"2010-11-11T14:00:47","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-152","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/11\/forex-daily-market-commentary-152\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar stabilized during the Asia session given the relative \t\t\tabsence of news and economic dataflow. Although the G20 Summit is \t\t\tcurrently underway, delegates refrained from expressing any \t\t\tsurprising or controversial opinions in public, and this contributed \t\t\tto the general lack of price direction. EURUSD traded 1.3716-1.3821, \t\t\tUSDJPY 82.04-82.80. The Nikkei-225 is up +0.3% at the time of \t\t\twriting while the S&P500 finished +0.44% ahead. Initial jobless \t\t\tclaims dropped to 435k (cons. 450k) in the week of Nov 6 from a \t\t\trevised estimate of 459k for the week before. In addition, the US \t\t\ttrade balance narrowed $2.5B to -$44.0B in September (cons. \t\t\t-$45.0B). US Treasury Secretary Geithner said that the US “will \t\t\tnever” seek to weaken the dollar as a tool to grow the economy, and \t\t\tsaid that the dollar’s recent fall is in part due to reversal of \t\t\tearlier safe haven flows. The New York Fed published a tentative \t\t\tschedule for Treasury purchases as part of the Fed’s latest round of \t\t\tquantitative easing. The purchases are due to begin on Friday.
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Irish Central Bank Governor Honohan said that it will not be \t\t\tnecessary for Ireland to tap the EU rescue fund and that budget \t\t\tmeasures should boost confidence, adding that there was no reason \t\t\twhy Ireland can’t return to the bond market in 2011. However he \t\t\tobserved that Irish banks saw net outflows in September.
\nAlthough a Portuguese auction passed without incident, yields \t\t\tcontinued to rise for sovereign issuers on the Eurozone’s periphery. \t\t\tNews that a major London-based clearing house increased the margin \t\t\tthey require for holding Irish government bonds likely contributed \t\t\tto the bearish tone.
\nA Greek newspaper claimed that Greece would upwardly revise its 2010 \t\t\tbudget deficit to 9.5% of GDP from the originally projected 8.1% of \t\t\tGDP. There were mixed industrial reduction results across France and \t\t\tItaly, illustrating their diverging prospects for Q3 GDP. \t\t\tYear-on-year readings were +5.1% vs. consensus of +4.7% for France, \t\t\twhile Italian industrial production greatly missed estimates, \t\t\tfalling -2.1% m\/m vs. consensus of -0.3%.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sterling received a temporary boost when the BoE’s quarterly \t\t\tinflation report showed an upward revision to the near-term \t\t\tinflation forecast. For the short term, the likelihood of further QE \t\t\tremains slim due to better-than-expected fundamentals, but price \t\t\trisks on both sides suggest that is still a distinct possibility \t\t\theading into the new year.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

October’s employment report was mixed. Although +29.7k new jobs were \t\t\tcreated (cons. +20k), only part-time jobs increased. The \t\t\tunemployment rate was much higher than expected at 5.4% (cons. 5.0%, \t\t\tprev. 5.1%), although this was due to a large increase in the work \t\t\tforce. Our Australian economists believe the new data shows an \t\t\teconomy running at, rather than above, trend. This further supports \t\t\ttheir view that the RBA is likely ‘on hold’ until March.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nEURJPY constructive above 111.53.
\nEURUSD NEUTRAL While resistance at 1.4282 holds, break of 1.3635 \t\t\twould trigger negative tone.
\nUSDJPY NEUTRAL Recovery through 81.99 exposes 83.99. Initial support \t\t\tdefined at 81.55 ahead of 79.75 key support.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH As long as support at 1.5651 holds, focus on 1.6379.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.9463; a break here would trigger \t\t\tanother bearish run towards 0.9225. Upside capped at 0.9972.
\nAUDUSD BULLISH Upside pressure found resistance at 1.0183 ahead of \t\t\t1.0222. Little resistance beyond that till 1.1084. Support at 0.9891 \t\t\tahead of 0.9542 reaction low.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Sustained break of 0.9981 would expose 0.9820 next. \t\t\tResistance at 1.0156.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Pullback from 1.3834 eyes 1.3265; next support below \t\t\tthat lies at 1.3072. Initial resistance at 1.3452.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Break of 0.8542 has opened up the way towards 0.8463 \t\t\tnext. Resistance at 0.8692 ahead of 0.8818.
\nEURJPY BULLISH Remains constructive above 111.53; expect gains to \t\t\ttarget 115.68.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar stabilized during the Asia session given the relative absence of news and economic dataflow. Although the G20 Summit is currently underway, delegates refrained from expressing any surprising or controversial opinions in public<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15256\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}