{"id":15213,"date":"2010-11-10T08:15:22","date_gmt":"2010-11-10T13:15:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=15213"},"modified":"2010-11-10T08:15:22","modified_gmt":"2010-11-10T13:15:22","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-151","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/10\/forex-daily-market-commentary-151\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar stabilized during the Asia session, after higher US \t\t\tTreasury yields earlier sparked a wave of dollar buying. EURUSD \t\t\ttraded 1.3736-1.3864, USDJPY 81.08-81.97. Asian equities were mixed \t\t\tafter the S&P 500 closed down -0.8%. US wholesale inventories rose \t\t\t+1.5% in September against expectations of +0.7% m\/m. Our US \t\t\teconomists note that the September print and the upward revision to \t\t\tAugust (+1.2% instead of +0.8%) imply an upward revision to Q3 real \t\t\tGDP growth of about +0.2 percentage points, which would take Q3 real \t\t\tGDP growth to a +2.2% annual rate. With the dollar so sensitive to \t\t\tUS yields, tonight’s 30-year Treasury auction will be watched with \t\t\tgreat interest.
\nThe NY Fed is also due to release the schedule for Treasury \t\t\tpurchases that are to be carried out under the Fed’s new round of \t\t\tquantitative easing, and the Treasury curve is likely to be very \t\t\tsensitive to any surprises. Initial jobless claims, are also due for \t\t\trelease a day early due to the US holiday on Thursday. A faster than \t\t\texpected decline in claims would also likely be dollar-supportive, \t\t\tespecially after the strong payrolls report on Friday.
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Our team expect Ireland-related stress to continue at least until \t\t\tthe budget address in December and perhaps beyond as political \t\t\tinstability remains. EU Commissioner Rehn said the Irish budget plan \t\t\tshould have a real effect on markets and that the market has not yet \t\t\tassessed it.
\nPortuguese credit spreads widened to record euro-lifetime highs \t\t\tovernight as debt concerns spread to other areas in the periphery \t\t\tand put further downward pressure on the euro. A slight snapback did \t\t\toccur when a Greek auction passed successfully, but the overriding \t\t\tconcern is over peripheral credit spread widening in the Eurozone.
\nFinal figures for German CPI were released for October, falling in \t\t\tline with consensus at +1.3% y\/y.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The BoE’s quarterly Inflation Report is due to be released. Our UK \t\t\teconomist expects to see a relatively optimistic outlook for GDP \t\t\tgrowth, as was also communicated in previous reports. However, this \t\t\ttime he expects the MPC to be more open to the view that there is \t\t\tsomething more pernicious about inflation. As a result, we would not \t\t\tbe surprised if the central projection for CPI inflation is raised, \t\t\tand the overall tone may be less dovish than it was three months \t\t\tago.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Consumer confidence fell -5.3% m\/m in November, a decline our \t\t\tAustralian economists attribute to the surprise RBA hike. Meanwhile, \t\t\thome loans rose +1.3% in September, ahead of the +1.0% consensus \t\t\testimate. Our economists expect the RBA to hike again in March.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong>
\nUSDCAD pressure on 0.9981.
\nEURUSD NEUTRAL Large trading band between 1.3698 and 1.4282 has \t\t\tbig-picture technicals in a neutral state.
\nUSDJPY BEARISH Stalled above 79.75; little support below this till \t\t\t77.91. Resistance at 81.99.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH As long as support at 1.5651 holds, focus on 1.6379.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.9463; a break here would trigger \t\t\tanother bearish run towards 0.9225. Upside capped at 0.9972.
\nAUDUSD BULLISH Upside pressure found resistance at 1.0183 ahead of \t\t\t1.0222. Little resistance beyond that till 1.1084. Support at 0.9891 \t\t\tahead of 0.9542 reaction low.
\nUSDCAD BEARISH Bearish pressure pressures 0.9981; a sustained break \t\t\there would expose 0.9820 next. Resistance at 1.0156.
\nEURCHF NEUTRAL Pullback from 1.3834 eyes 1.3265; next support below \t\t\tthat lies at 1.3072. Initial resistance at 1.3452.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Next support below 0.8542 lies at 0.8463. Resistance \t\t\tat 0.8692 ahead of 0.8818.
\nEURJPY NEUTRAL Pressure on 111.53; only a break below 105.44 would \t\t\tconfirm the resumption of bear trend. \t\t\tResistance at 115.68.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar stabilized during the Asia session, after higher US Treasury yields earlier sparked a wave of dollar buying. EURUSD traded 1.3736-1.3864, USDJPY 81.08-81.97. Asian equities were mixed after the S&P 500<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15213","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15213","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15213"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15213\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15213"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15213"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15213"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}