{"id":15037,"date":"2010-11-05T11:52:41","date_gmt":"2010-11-05T15:52:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=15037"},"modified":"2010-11-05T11:52:41","modified_gmt":"2010-11-05T15:52:41","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-148","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/05\/forex-daily-market-commentary-148\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar stabilised during the Asia session although trade was \t\t\tlight due to a holiday across much of South East Asia. EURUSD traded \t\t\t1.4184-1.4249, USDJPY 80.61-80.99. Asian equities are significantly \t\t\tstronger after the S&P500 earlier closed +1.9% ahead. Gold retreated \t\t\tslightly to $1387.88\/oz at the time of writing, but it remains near \t\t\trecord highs. Crude continues to advance and set an overnight high \t\t\tof $87.22\/bbl. The Fed’s pledge to “regularly review the pace of its \t\t\tsecurities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase \t\t\tprogram in light of incoming information” means that incoming US \t\t\tdata is probably now even more important than usual. Our US \t\t\teconomists expect +70k for total payrolls and +75k for privates \t\t\tversus consensus of +60k and +80k, respectively, and an unchanged \t\t\tunemployment rate of 9.6%. The latest initial jobless claims \t\t\tsurprised to the upside, at 457k, but our economists note this \t\t\treading covered the final week of October, beyond the sample week \t\t\tfor the October payroll report. That said, any results broadly in \t\t\tline with expectations are unlikely to help the dollar in the \t\t\tcurrent environment. But if the payrolls data surprise strongly on \t\t\tthe upside, the dollar could temporarily strengthen and both \t\t\trisk-seeking positions and dollar shorts could face some profit \t\t\ttaking into the weekend, with USDJPY the most likely beneficiary.<\/p>\n


\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The ECB kept its policy unchanged as expected and President \t\t\tTrichet’s statement was largely in line with previous comments. \t\t\tTrichet said the policy stance remains accommodative, with \t\t\tmedium-term inflationary pressures contained, and policymakers \t\t\tremain on track to examine exit options at the next meeting. He said \t\t\tthe ECB could move interest rates before removing all non-standard \t\t\tmeasures, but beyond that he offered very little further policy \t\t\tguidance. During the Q&A, he dodged several questions on the Fed’s \t\t\tlatest decision, the euro and sovereign bond spreads. When asked \t\t\tabout the US dollar policy, he said he does not believe the US is \t\t\tpursuing a weak dollar policy. But even as policymakers continue to \t\t\ttalk about exit strategies, Eurozone peripheral spreads remain \t\t\televated and could keep investors nervous about pushing euro \t\t\tstrength too far.<\/p>\n

Final revisions for PMI’s across Europe were released with some \t\t\tdiverging patterns. Manufacturing numbers were more positive across \t\t\tGermany, France and the Eurozone but the figures for services \t\t\ttrended downwards. On a geographical basis, a clear pattern is \t\t\temerging of struggling peripherals in contrast to Germany, with the \t\t\tother core countries, such as France, sitting somewhere in between.<\/p>\n


\nGBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The BoE kept its policy rate unchanged as expected and no \t\t\texplanatory statement was offered. Cable jumped following the \t\t\tdecision as fears that the BoE could follow in the Fed’s footsteps \t\t\twent unfounded.<\/p>\n

Chancellor Osborne commented that the UK economy is “growing faster \t\t\tthan expected” but highlighted that there were still broader \t\t\tconcerns over the world economy, a situation which remains “choppy”. \t\t\tHe did say, though, that Gilt yields show that the UK is “out of the \t\t\tfinancial danger zone.” While Osborne is confident they will see the \t\t\tausterity measures through, we remain cautious on sterling in the \t\t\tmedium term as austerity could hamper growth.
\n<\/p>\n

<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/strong> EURUSD BULLISH Rise through 1.4159 triggers another bullish run \t\t\ttowards 1.4373. Support is at 1.3992<\/p>\n

USDJPY BEARISH Little support below 79.75 till 77.91. Resistance at \t\t\t81.99<\/p>\n

GBPUSD BULLISH Upside potential targets 1.6379 with scope for 1.6458 \t\t\tnext. Support comes in at 1.6080.<\/p>\n

USDCHF BEARISH Break below 0.9463 would open up the way towards \t\t\t0.9225. Upside capped at 0.9972<\/p>\n

AUDUSD BULLISH Momentum is positive; next resistance at 1.0222, \t\t\tmeasured target. Support at 0.9891 ahead of 0.9542 reaction low.<\/p>\n

USDCAD BEARISH Outlook is bearish; the pair eyes 0.9981 ahead of \t\t\t0.9820. Resistance at 1.0156.<\/p>\n

EURCHF BULLISH Violation of 1.3924 would open up the way towards \t\t\t1.4041. Near-term support at 1.3540<\/p>\n

EURGBP NEUTRAL 0.8942 and 0.8652 mark the near-term directional \t\t\ttriggers.<\/p>\n

EURJPY BULLISH Upside pressure on 115.68; scope for 116.68 and \t\t\t119.33 next. Support comes in at 112.83<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar stabilised during the Asia session although trade was light due to a holiday across much of South East Asia. EURUSD traded 1.4184-1.4249, USDJPY 80.61-80.99. Asian equities are significantly stronger<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15037"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15037\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}