{"id":14731,"date":"2010-11-01T08:20:48","date_gmt":"2010-11-01T12:20:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=14731"},"modified":"2010-11-01T08:20:48","modified_gmt":"2010-11-01T12:20:48","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-144","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/11\/01\/forex-daily-market-commentary-144\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The last data to \t\t\tbe published ahead of the FOMC decision is likely to cause less of a \t\t\tmarket reaction than usual. But nonetheless: a bad ISM result today \t\t\t(due to the end of the summer time due at 15.00h CET \/ 14.00h UK \t\t\ttime) might put further pressure on the greenback. In the end all of \t\t\tthis is a matter of interpretation. An index level around 53 (as our \t\t\teconomists expect) is of course disappointing compared to recent \t\t\tdata. But the latter was distorted by the immediate end of the \t\t\trecession and particularities of the inventory cycle. While the ISM \t\t\tindex remains between 50 and 55 it does not send out any economic \t\t\twarning signals. At least a collapse, which could be deducted from a \t\t\tcomparison of the ISM components, would be off the agenda.<\/p>\n


\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

We have changed ourr forecast for the timing of the first ECB hike. \t\t\tWe see it coming no earlier than Q3 2011, one calendar quarter later \t\t\tthan forecast previously. The rational is that Eurozone growth may \t\t\tbe adversely affected by the euro’s appreciation, and the ECB will \t\t\thardly want to start hiking before the Fed. Our US economists \t\t\tcurrently expect the Fed to start hiking the Fed Funds target in Q3 \t\t\t2011.<\/p>\n

The public finances of peripheral Eurozone nations continue to draw \t\t\tunwanted attention, and sovereign bond spreads over bunds remain \t\t\televated. Ireland’s Prime Minister Cowen said the government is \t\t\ttaking all necessary steps to address economic problems. The Irish \t\t\t2011 budget, which is still being framed, is scheduled to be put to \t\t\ta parliamentary vote on Dec. 7. In Portugal, the minority Socialist \t\t\tgovernment and opposition Social Democrats reached an agreement on \t\t\tthe 2011 budget on Saturday. A first vote in parliament is scheduled \t\t\tfor Wednesday.<\/p>\n

SNB Chairman Hildebrand said that the global economy is not in the \t\t\tmidst of a “currency war”.<\/p>\n


\nJPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

USDJPY suddenly spiked 80 pips before falling again. Reuters \t\t\treported that Director General Nakao of the MoF’s International \t\t\tBureau declined to comment on the price action.<\/p>\n

Economics Minister Kaieda said that the government would “take steps \t\t\tagainst steep rises of the yen”, but warned that it is also \t\t\timportant for the private sector “to transform its structure” to \t\t\tadapt to a stronger yen. He said that markets should decide FX \t\t\trates, but that “if an inflow of speculative money” were to cause “a \t\t\tdrastic change, like a 10-yen move in a month, we need to intervene \t\t\tin the market”.<\/p>\n

As part of its regular monthly disclosures, the MoF confirmed that \t\t\tno FX intervention took place between Sept. 29 and Oct. 27 \t\t\tinclusive. This strongly suggests that Japan’s latest intervention \t\t\tcampaign has so far been confined to a single day on Sept. 15.<\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/em>
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/strong> EURUSD BULLISH Break of 1.4159 would trigger another bullish run \t\t\ttowards 1.4373. Support holds at 1.3698<\/p>\n

USDJPY BEARISH Outlook is bearish; next big support below 79.75 lies \t\t\tat 77.91. Resistance at 81.99<\/p>\n

GBPUSD BULLISH Focus is on 1.6107; move above the level would expose \t\t\t1.6276 and 1.6458. Support comes in at 1.5878 ahead of 1.5606<\/p>\n

USDCHF BEARISH Bounce-off from 0.9463 found resistance at 0.9929. \t\t\tNear-term support at 0.9703.<\/p>\n

AUDUSD BULLISH Pullback from 1.0004 holds above 0.9542 reaction low. \t\t\tMove below the level would expose 0.9387<\/p>\n

USDCAD BEARISH As long as 1.0380 continues to cap the upside, expect \t\t\tdecline towards 1.0154 ahead of 0.9981<\/p>\n

EURCHF BULLISH Momentum is positive; expect acceleration of gains \t\t\ttowards 1.3924. Near-term support at 1.3456 ahead of 1.3265<\/p>\n

EURGBP BULLISH While support at 0.8636 holds, view pullback as \t\t\tcorrection. Resistance at 0.8772<\/p>\n

EURJPY BULLISH Break through 111.56 exposes 107.73 with scope for \t\t\t105.44 next. Upside capped at 113.78 ahead of 115.68<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The last data to be published ahead of the FOMC decision is likely to cause less of a market reaction than usual. But nonetheless: a bad ISM result today (due to the end of the summer time due at 15.00h CET \/ 14.00h UK time) might put further pressure on the greenback. In the end all of this is a matter of interpretation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14731","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14731\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}