{"id":13562,"date":"2010-10-01T08:45:55","date_gmt":"2010-10-01T12:45:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=13562"},"modified":"2010-10-01T08:45:55","modified_gmt":"2010-10-01T12:45:55","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-123","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/10\/01\/forex-daily-market-commentary-123\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar-positive effects of yesterday’s stronger US data began to \t\t\twear off during the Asia session. The greenback surrendered some \t\t\tground after FOMC voter Pianalto said policy options to get the Fed \t\t\ton the path to achieving price stability are being investigated. A \t\t\tbetter than expected China PMI reading temporarily supported the \t\t\tAUD. EURUSD traded 1.3604-1.3667, and USDJPY 83.37-83.58. Jobless \t\t\tclaims fell slightly more than anticipated to 453k and the renewed \t\t\tdownturn cautions against extrapolating the mid-summer soft patch in \t\t\teconomic activity. Chicago PMI rose to 60.4 and details were strong \t\t\tbut the Milwaukee PMI fell to 50. And Q2 real GDP growth was revised \t\t\tup to a 1.7% annual rate. Price data was little revised, with core \t\t\tPCE to 1.0% from 1.1%. The positive data may have given investors \t\t\tpause in their expectation for further easing but easing concerns \t\t\twill persist unless we see continued data improvement. And it will \t\t\tbe key how Treasury yields react to the data releases, as higher \t\t\tyields could provide some respite for the dollar. University of \t\t\tMichigan confidence, ISM Manufacturing, core PCE and deflator data \t\t\tfor August are due.
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The euro remained relatively stable after overcoming the latest risk \t\t\tevents. The Irish government announced that the domestic banking \t\t\tsystem will require further government-sponsored capital injections, \t\t\tthe size of which were broadly in line with expectations. Finance \t\t\tMinister Lenihan said that holders of subordinated debt of a \t\t\tnationalized bank would be expected to make a significant \t\t\tcontribution to the bailout. The euro initially fell on the news, \t\t\tbut a recovery soon ensued as Irish sovereign spreads over bunds \t\t\tbegan to tighten. The euro drew further strength from reduced demand \t\t\tfor ECB cash at the latest tender, and a better than expected fall \t\t\tin German unemployment numbers. The anticipated Moody’s downgrade of \t\t\tSpain also passed quietly – Spain fell only a single-notch in the \t\t\trankings, and the outlook was set to stable.
\nThe Irish central bank announced that the domestic banking system \t\t\twill required further government-sponsored capital injections. The \t\t\tIrish Finance Minister said that holders of subordinated debt of a \t\t\tnationalized bank would be expected to make a significant \t\t\tcontribution to the bailout.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

CPI excluding fresh food improved slightly, as expected, to -1.0% \t\t\t(prev. -1.1%). Prime Minister Kan said, in a clear reference to next \t\t\tweek’s policy meeting, that he hopes the BoJ will take further \t\t\tnecessary steps to beat deflation. Both he and Finance Minister Noda \t\t\talso said that Japan will continue to take decisive steps as needed \t\t\tto counter the yen’s rise.
\nMinistry of Finance data revealed that Japan undertook JPY2.1249tn \t\t\tof FX intervention in the month of August 28-September 28 \t\t\t(approximately $25bn). This was broadly inline with market estimates \t\t\tand suggests that intervention was limited to a single day.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The UK data calendar was light with the Nationwide house price index \t\t\tincreasing 0.1% m\/m, ahead of consensus of -0.3%. Cable moved higher \t\t\tin the overnight session but then fix-related selling pressured \t\t\tsterling.
\nPrior to the New York open, BoE policymaker Posen said he could be \t\t\ttalked out of his opinion of further QE. The MPC appears more \t\t\tfragmented between Posen’s pro-QE approach, Sentance’s dissent and \t\t\tthe rest of the committee.<\/p>\n


\nCAD<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

July monthly GDP was negative as expected and BoC Governor Carney \t\t\tagain cautioned on the economic outlook, similar to the latest BoC \t\t\tstatement. He stressed the unusual uncertainty surrounding the \t\t\toutlook and reiterated that future monetary policy moves would have \t\t\tto be carefully considered. The BoC raised the policy rate at its \t\t\tlast meeting but the concerns of further Fed easing have tempered \t\t\texpectations for the BoC’s policy rate path, which has weighed on \t\t\tthe Canadian dollar.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/strong> EURCHF breaks 1.3391.
\nEURUSD BULLISH Upside potential eyes 1.3692 with scope for 1.3896 \t\t\tnext. Near-term support comes in at 1.3381 ahead of 1.3287.
\nUSDJPY BEARISH Focus is back on the downside; break of 82.88 would \t\t\texpose 79.75. Resistance remains at 84.50 ahead of 85.40.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH Bull stalls in front of 1.5999 key high; key reversal \t\t\tlower has support at 1.5503.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Next support below 0.9625 lies at 0.9500 \t\t\tpsychological level. Resistance at 0.9918 breakout low.
\nAUDUSD BULLISH The pair is expected to target 0.9850 with scope for \t\t\t1.000 psychological resistance next. Support is at 0.9559 ahead of \t\t\t0.9463.
\nUSDCAD NEUTRAL 1.0509 and 1.0108 mark the near-term directional \t\t\ttriggers.
\nEURCHF BULLISH Following the break of 1.3391 model had turned \t\t\tbullish. Need a break above 1.3924 to confirm the positive trend.
\nEURGBP BULLISH As long as support at 0.8463 holds, expect the pair \t\t\tto target 0.8736 ahead of 0.8808.
\nEURJPY BULLISH Momentum is positive; clearance of 114.74 would \t\t\texpose 116.68 and 119.33. \t\t\tNear-term support comes in at112.67 ahead of 110.66.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar-positive effects of yesterday’s stronger US data began to wear off during the Asia session. The greenback surrendered some ground after FOMC voter Pianalto said policy options to get the Fed on the path to achieving price…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13562"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13562\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}