{"id":13534,"date":"2010-09-30T08:26:21","date_gmt":"2010-09-30T12:26:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=13534"},"modified":"2010-09-30T08:26:21","modified_gmt":"2010-09-30T12:26:21","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-122","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/09\/30\/forex-daily-market-commentary-122\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar managed to stage a mild recovery during the Asia session \t\t\tas economic data in Australia, New Zealand and Japan took a turn for \t\t\tthe worse. EURUSD traded 1.3593-1.3647, USDJPY 83.48-83.82. \t\t\tNevertheless, the potential for a further round of Fed quantitative \t\t\teasing remains a dominant influence on price action. San Francisco \t\t\tFed President Yellen and nominee Ruskin were confirmed by the \t\t\tSenate, and will now be able to take their places on the Fed’s Board \t\t\tof Governors. Several Fed officials also spoke. Boston Fed President \t\t\tRosengren, a 2010 FOMC voter, said the Fed should vigorously and \t\t\tcreatively use policy options to combat a slow recovery and \t\t\t“undesirably low” inflation. But he also warned that benefits of \t\t\tunconventional policies are harder to track and more easing should \t\t\tdepend on incoming data. Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota was \t\t\tslightly more middle-of-the road as he envisions “muted” effects \t\t\tfrom further asset purchases on Treasury yields. He remained \t\t\topen-minded on which tool the Fed could use next but said the US \t\t\tneeds to get its fiscal side in order in the longer run. And \t\t\tPhiladelphia Fed President Plosser worried about the downside \t\t\teffects of further easing though he would back it if deflationary \t\t\texpectations emerge, which he does not expect. Kocherlakota and \t\t\tPlosser are voting members in 2011.
\nThe varying opinions suggest the FOMC will wait and watch data for \t\t\tnow. But officials do seem more in agreement on labour market \t\t\tconcerns and on the need for more fiscal moves. The second revision \t\t\tof Q2 GDP is due along with jobless claims and Chicago PMI. Fed \t\t\tChairman Bernanke testifies on regulatory reforms.
\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Our analysts believe the French 2011 Financial Bill represents the \t\t\tfirst step on a long journey but they note that the proposed deficit \t\t\tis still far from sustainable. Sovereign deficits continue to weigh \t\t\ton investor sentiment and EU Commission President Barroso said \t\t\tPortugal needs to show it is serious about tackling its deficit \t\t\tissues.
\nThe Irish central bank announced that the domestic banking system \t\t\twill required further government-sponsored capital injections. The \t\t\tIrish Finance Minister said that holders of subordinated debt of a \t\t\tnationalized bank would be expected to make a significant \t\t\tcontribution to the bailout.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Key August economic data was weak with retail sales softer than \t\t\texpected, rising only +1.4% m\/m (cons. +1.9%, prev. +0.7%). \t\t\tIndustrial production rose by +15.4% y\/y, considerably short of \t\t\texpectations of +16.9% y\/y. The yen weakened very slightly on the \t\t\tnumbers, demonstrating that US yields continue to be the principal \t\t\tdriver in the pair.
\n CAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Canadian Finance Minister Flaherty said the economy is on track for \t\t\tthe year even if the upcoming July GDP print may turn out to be \t\t\tnegative, which is in line with consensus expectations. But at this \t\t\tstage, the US recovery is a larger driver and has kept the CAD under \t\t\tpressure versus the rest of the G10. Even if the Canadian recovery \t\t\tremains on track, the BoC policy rate outlook could be tempered \t\t\tgiven the Fed’s potential to ease further.<\/p>\n


\nAUD<\/em><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Australian Dollar came under mild selling pressure after some \t\t\tweak economic data. Building approvals fell -4.7% m\/m (cons 0.0%, \t\t\tprev. 0.1%) and the annualized figure rose by less than expected at \t\t\t+4.4% y\/y (cons. +10.8%, prev. +11.1%). Private lending growth also \t\t\tdisappointed coming in at +0.1% m\/m (cons. +0.3%, prev. +0.3%). Our \t\t\tanalysts team believes that this is further evidence of weakness in \t\t\tforward-looking indicators of housing activity. They continue to \t\t\texpect the RBA to start the next phase of the hiking cycle this \t\t\tyear, most likely October, but it could be November.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/strong> USDCHF next support at 0.9625.
\nEURUSD BULLISH The gains are expected to move towards 1.3692 and \t\t\t1.3896 next. Near-term support comes in at 1.3381 ahead of 1.3287.
\nUSDJPY BEARISH The break of 84.05 brings our focus back on the \t\t\tdownside at 82.88. Resistance remains at 84.50 ahead of 85.40.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH Bullish pressure held at 1.5895 ahead of 1.5999 key \t\t\thigh; scope for 1.6253 next. Support is defined at 1.5719 ahead of \t\t\t1.5503.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Next support below 0.9625 lies at 0.9500 \t\t\tpsychological level. Resistance at 0.9918 breakout low.
\nAUDUSD BULLISH Upside potential is expected to target 0.9850 with \t\t\tscope for 1.000 psychological resistance next. Support is at 0.9559 \t\t\tahead of 0.9463.
\nUSDCAD NEUTRAL 1.0509 and 1.0108 mark the near-term directional \t\t\ttriggers.
\nEURCHF NEUTRAL Trading in a choppy manner within 1.3391 and 1.2991 \t\t\trange.
\nEURGBP BULLISH Break through 0.8606\/0.8609 resistance area exposes \t\t\t0.8736 ahead of 0.8808.
\nEURJPY BULLISH Momentum is positive; clearance of 114.74 would \t\t\texpose 116.68 and 119.33. \t\t\tNear-term support comes in at112.67 ahead of 110.66.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar managed to stage a mild recovery during the Asia session as economic data in Australia, New Zealand and Japan took a turn for the worse. EURUSD traded 1.3593-1.3647, USDJPY 83.48-83.82…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13534","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13534"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13534\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13534"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13534"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13534"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}