{"id":13302,"date":"2010-09-24T09:35:20","date_gmt":"2010-09-24T13:35:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=13302"},"modified":"2010-09-24T09:35:20","modified_gmt":"2010-09-24T13:35:20","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-118","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/09\/24\/forex-daily-market-commentary-118\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Yesterday was a quiet NY trading session. The EURUSD continued to \t\t\texperience downward pressure from both disappointing data and \t\t\tsovereign risk concerns. The Euro Area PMIs came in weaker than \t\t\texpected today. In addition, Q2 Ireland GDP was disappointing, \t\t\tdriving the 10 year government bond yield spread between Ireland and \t\t\tGermany wider. Thus, the markets moved into slightly risk-averse \t\t\tterritory. On the US data front, initial jobless claims bounced up \t\t\tto 465k from 450k for their latest weekly read. August existing home \t\t\tsales came in very close to the consensus estimate at 7.6% m\/m and, \t\t\tas a result, did not prompt much of a USD reaction. Headlines \t\t\treported that President Obama stressed to China’s Premier Wen the \t\t\t“need for China to do more” on the currency issue. Ahead today, \t\t\tPresident Obama will meet with Prime Minister Kan. USDJPY traded \t\t\t84.26-84.67. EURUSD traded in a range 1.3303-1.3413. The S&P 500 \t\t\tfinished down 0.83% and the DJIA was down 0.72%.<\/p>\n


\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Mixed news from Ireland as two T-Bill auctions came in with strong \t\t\tdemand, while GDP data was disappointing. Bid-Cover ratios on the \t\t\tFeb 2011 and April 2011 auctions were 4.08 and 11.7, respectively. \t\t\tThis again follows the trend of bond and CDS spread widening in \t\t\tbetween auctions, while the auctions themselves show relatively \t\t\tstrong demand. The Irish 10y-Bund spread reached an historical high \t\t\tovernight, widening 21 bps on the back of comments from the Director \t\t\tof Ireland’s National Asset Management Agency that the subordinated \t\t\tdebt of a prominent Irish commercial lender lacked guarantees.
\nIreland Q2 GDP figures were well below consensus of +0.5%, \t\t\tregistering a quarterly decline of (-)1.2% and casting further doubt \t\t\ton Irish policymakers. Q1 growth was revised down on the back of \t\t\tthis from 2.7% to 2.2%. Portuguese spreads followed Irish spread \t\t\tmovements, also posting record highs of 400 bps.
\nThe PMIs for the Euro Area came in under expectations. The September \t\t\tPMI composite came in at 53.8 vs. expectations of 55.7 and down from \t\t\t56.2 in August. Euro Area PMI in the manufacturing sector came in at \t\t\t53.6 after 55.1 previously — a significant decline. Euro Area PMI \t\t\tin the service sector came in at 53.6 after 55.9. Again, the result \t\t\twas lower than expected and a significant decline. \t\t\tAhead Friday is the German Ifo.<\/p>\n

.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

USDJPY suddenly spiked 80 pips at 04:15 GMT. Vice Finance Minister \t\t\tfor International Affairs Tamaki said he had no comment on whether \t\t\tJapan had intervened. Finance Minister Noda also declined to \t\t\tcomment. Earlier, Japan Prime Minister Kan met with US President \t\t\tObama. Although no official announcement was made after the meeting, \t\t\tthat in itself was significant. Clearly, we have yet to hear any \t\t\tofficial condemnation of Japanese intervention from the fiscal or \t\t\tmonetary authorities in the US, silence which could be interpreted \t\t\tas an implicit green light for further intervention.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/strong> USDJPY rebounds towards 85.93.
\nEURUSD NEUTRAL There is scope for move towards 1.3509 and 1.3818 \t\t\tnext. Near-term support comes in at 1.3268 ahead of 1.3159.
\nUSDJPY NEUTRAL The pair rebounds towards 85.93 with scope for 86.70 \t\t\tnext. Support holds at 84.05 ahead of 82.88.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH Following the break of 1.5729, expect gains to extend \t\t\ttowards 1.5999 key high. Support is defined at 1.5503 ahead of \t\t\t1.5297.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Break through 0.9933\/18 region reinstates the bearish \t\t\ttrend. Next support lies at 0.9786 ahead of 0.9625. Resistance at \t\t\t0.9983 intraday high.
\nAUDUSD BULLISH Bounce-off from 0.8771 found resistance at 0.9600, \t\t\tpsychological level, ahead of 0.9850 key high. Near-term support is \t\t\tat 0.9442 ahead of 0.9309.
\nUSDCAD NEUTRAL Choppy action holds between 1.0108 and 1.0509.
\nEURCHF NEUTRAL 1.3391 and 1.2991 mark the key near-term directional \t\t\ttriggers.
\nEURGBP NEUTRAL Upside potential held below 0.8609 ahead of 0.8774. \t\t\tSupport defined at 0.8463 ahead of 0.8390.
\nEURJPY NEUTRAL Eyes 114.74 with scope for 116.68 next. \t\t\t \t\t\tSupport holds at 110.66 ahead of 107.73.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mixed news from Ireland as two T-Bill auctions came in with strong demand, while GDP data was disappointing. Bid-Cover ratios on the Feb 2011 and April 2011 auctions were 4.08 and 11.7, respectively…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13302"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13302\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}