{"id":13247,"date":"2010-09-22T09:30:31","date_gmt":"2010-09-22T13:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=13247"},"modified":"2010-09-22T09:30:31","modified_gmt":"2010-09-22T13:30:31","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-116","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/09\/22\/forex-daily-market-commentary-116\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Yesterday was a quiet NY trading session until the FOMC announcement \t\t\tcaused a boost to risk seeking sentiment. The September FOMC \t\t\tstatement read more dovish than the August statement. While the \t\t\tgrowth outlook was unchanged, the Fed had a downgrade to its \t\t\tinflation assessment. The FOMC noted that “Measures of underlying \t\t\tinflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee \t\t\tjudges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to \t\t\tpromote maximum employment and price stability.” The policy guidance \t\t\tsentence was changed a bit to “the Committee will continue to \t\t\tmonitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is \t\t\tprepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support \t\t\tthe economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels \t\t\tconsistent with its mandate.” The phrase “prepared to provide \t\t\tadditional accommodation if needed” compares to the August statement \t\t\tlanguage of “will employ its tools as necessary to promote economic \t\t\trecovery and price stability\u201d.<\/p>\n


\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Peripheral spreads tightened, following a successful Irish auction, \t\t\tas limited supply and domestic demand ensured it ran smoothly. The \t\t\tSpanish and Greek auctions were also well received. Portuguese 10y \t\t\tspreads fell around 6 bps, while secondary market buying in the run \t\t\tup to the Irish auction also helped events. The Euro reached a \t\t\t2-month high versus sterling in the run-up to this, up 0.6% on the \t\t\tday as real-money accounts followed consensus of a solid auction. \t\t\tThere now appears to be an emerging pattern of successful peripheral \t\t\tauctions and sell-offs in between.
\nThe ECB announced that \u20ac323 mn (prev. \u20ac237 mn) in sovereign bond \t\t\tpurchases settled last week. ECB activity in the sovereign bond \t\t\tspace is clearly trending higher and yet bond spreads of Portugal \t\t\tand Ireland continue to rise steadily.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Public borrowing figures were released in the UK, sporting record \t\t\tnumbers of \u00a315.302bn public sector net borrowing, as higher \t\t\tinflation increased interest payments on index-linked gilts. Even \t\t\tthough some of the upward EURGBP movement can be attributed to this, \t\t\tthe bond markets were fairly unmoved by the figures, as the yearly \t\t\tborrowing figures seem set to fall broadly in-line.
\n CHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Switzerland’s trade balance fell to CHF 0.57bn in August, as real \t\t\texports declined by 1.4% m\/m. However, the annualized figure was \t\t\timpressive at 8.6% y\/y, despite the strong CHF. Money supply figures \t\t\twere also released, with M0 falling well below consensus at 17%, \t\t\twhile M3 beat estimates, increasing by 6.6%. the result may raise \t\t\tquestions about the scale of credit growth in Switzerland and \t\t\twhether the SNB is being too dovish.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The minutes of the RBA’s September 7 meeting echoed the hawkish \t\t\tsentiments expressed yesterday by RBA Governor Stevens. Our team \t\t\tnotes that the key phrase “\u2026higher interest rates would be required, \t\t\tat some point, to ensure that inflation remained consistent with the \t\t\tmedium-term target” represents a clear escalation of hawkishness \t\t\trelative to the August meeting minutes. Our economists expect \t\t\tanother 25bp hike either at the October or the November meetings, \t\t\twith a greater probability of a move in October.<\/p>\n


\nCAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Canada’s headline CPI came in lower than expected at -0.1%m\/m and \t\t\t1.7% year-on-year. The core CPI came in on expectations at +0.1%m\/m \t\t\tand 1.6% year-on-year. \t\t\tAhead tomorrow are Canada retail sales for \t\t\tJuly.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/strong> EURGBP resistance at 0.8532.
\nEURUSD NEUTRAL Model is neutral; 1.3334 and 1.2919 mark the key \t\t\tnear-term directional triggers.
\nUSDJPY NEUTRAL Pullback from 85.93 has scope for 84.05.
\nGBPUSD BULLISH Model is bullish; while support at 1.5297 holds, \t\t\texpect gains to target 1.5729 ahead of 1.5999.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Focus is on 0.9933\/18; move below this range would \t\t\texpose 0.9786. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0183 ahead of \t\t\t1.0392.
\nAUDUSD BULLISH Clearance of 0.9500 exposes 0.0.9563 and then 0.9850. \t\t\tNear-term support is at 0.9309 ahead of 0.9196.
\nUSDCAD NEUTRAL Momentum is slowing; while support holds at 1.0216, \t\t\tresistance comes in at 1.0509 ahead of 1.0673.
\nEURCHF NEUTRAL Recovery found resistance at 1.3391 ahead of 1.3482 \t\t\tretracement level. Near-term support comes in at 1.2991.
\nEURGBP NEUTRAL Sustained break of 0.8532 would trigger positive \t\t\ttrend. 0.8311 marks the near-term support ahead of 0.8142.
\nEURJPY NEUTRAL Break of 114.74 would put odds in favour of positive \t\t\ttone. Next resistance at 116.68. Support holds at 107.73 ahead of \t\t\t105.44 key low.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday was a quiet NY trading session until the FOMC announcement caused a boost to risk seeking sentiment. The September FOMC statement read more dovish than the August statement…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13247","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13247"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13247\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}