{"id":13069,"date":"2010-09-15T08:35:04","date_gmt":"2010-09-15T12:35:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=13069"},"modified":"2010-09-15T08:35:04","modified_gmt":"2010-09-15T12:35:04","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-111","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/09\/15\/forex-daily-market-commentary-111\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at \t\t\t0800 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar weakened versus the G10 despite stronger than expected US \t\t\tretail sales data. Recent US data has been more positive but that \t\t\thas not stopped investors from worrying about future Fed actions \t\t\talthough it appears policymakers are in a holding pattern as they \t\t\twait for more data. Dropping Treasury yields also stoked worries of \t\t\tfuture Fed asset purchases as there was decent buying from foreign \t\t\tinstitutions behind the move. Equities were flat and oil and gold \t\t\t$76.79 and $1268.55 at the time of writing. EURUSD traded \t\t\t1.2830-1.3033, USDJPY 82.92-83.76. Our team does not think the Fed \t\t\twill announce anything immediate as the data has not been weak \t\t\tenough to argue for further easing and officials are starting to put \t\t\tthe onus on more fiscal-oriented shifts. Among the data releases, \t\t\theadline and ex-auto retail sales were better than expected, though \t\t\tthere was a slight downward revision for July figures. That said, \t\t\tthere were still some signs of a hesitant consumer as larger ticket \t\t\titems were softer. Even so, real consumer spending (including \t\t\tservices) appears to be accelerating and our economists estimate \t\t\tthat it is rising at a 2.2% annual rate so far in Q3, up from the \t\t\t1.9% pace in H1. Upcoming US data releases include industrial \t\t\tproduction and capacity utilization.<\/p>\n


\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The German ZEW survey surprised sharply to the downside with the \t\t\tsentiment survey registering a surprise negative print of -4.3. The \t\t\tcurrent situation survey however was much stronger than expected at \t\t\t59.9. Our team notes that the ZEW is not a very reliable leading \t\t\tindicator, but the figures are consistent with the view that Q3 will \t\t\tremain strong, but activity will falter afterwards. Eurozone \t\t\tindustrial production was a little softer at 7.1% y\/y. Up next is \t\t\tEurozone CPI, with no change expected in the y\/y reading.
\n GBP<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sterling weakened on the accelerating decline in UK house prices \t\t\taccording to the RICS house balance for August before rebounding in \t\t\tthe broader dollar sell-off. The RICS data was -32% versus consensus \t\t\t-12%.In other data, headline CPI was unchanged at 3.1%y.y, but \t\t\tmonthly sequential inflation was again higher than expected at 0.5%. \t\t\tMartin Weale, in his testimony, brushed off any suggestion that \t\t\tthere was scope for changing in the inflation target, but implicitly \t\t\tacknowledged that inflationary pressures were somewhat stronger than \t\t\texpected, calling the OBR’s 4% output gap estimate “plausible”.
\nLabour data is due and BoE Governor King addresses the Trades Union \t\t\tCongress. This marks the second occasion where a BoE governor speaks \t\t\tat the annual Trades Union Congress and following BoE policymaker \t\t\tWeale’s comments, King’s speech and ensuing Q&A should draw the \t\t\tfocus of investors.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/strong> EURUSD NEUTRAL Model has turned neutral; 1.3334 and 1.2588 mark the \t\t\tkey near-term directional triggers.
\nUSDJPY BEARISH Trend is bearish; there is little support till 79.75 \t\t\tkey level. Short-term resistance is defined at 84.43 ahead of 85.23.
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Support is at 1.5297 with resistance above 1.5565 at \t\t\t1.5731.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Slashed through 1.0061 thus exposing 0.9918 with \t\t\tscope for 0.9786. Near-term resistance comes in at 1.0278 ahead of \t\t\t1.0466.
\nAUDUSD BULLISH Rise above 0.9389 and 0.9406 targets 0.9563. \t\t\tNear-term support is at 0.9309.
\nUSDCAD NEUTRAL 1.0673 and 1.0108 define the next bull and bear \t\t\ttriggers respectively.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Sell-off from 1.3924 found support at 1.2766; break \t\t\tof the level would expose 1.2403. Resistance at 1.3163.
\nEURGBP NEUTRAL Pulls back before 0.8390; move below 0.8252 and \t\t\t0.8142 next would reinstate the bearish tone.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Focus is maintained on 105.44, next support at 100 \t\t\tpsychological level. \t\t\tResistance is at 111.19.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sterling weakened on the accelerating decline in UK house prices according to the RICS house balance for August before rebounding in the broader dollar sell-off. The RICS data was -32% versus consensus -12%…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13069\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}