{"id":12605,"date":"2010-09-02T10:00:23","date_gmt":"2010-09-02T14:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=12605"},"modified":"2010-09-02T10:00:23","modified_gmt":"2010-09-02T14:00:23","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-105","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/09\/02\/forex-daily-market-commentary-105\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Risk sentiment continues to find support as figures out of the US \t\t\tyesterday suggested some of the recent economic fears could prove \t\t\toverblown, especially ahead of Friday’s crucial payrolls report. \t\t\tManufacturing ISM was above consensus estimates at 56.3, which is \t\t\tconsistent with an above-5% growth trend in manufacturing output. \t\t\tRegional manufacturing data had been mixed as of late so the \t\t\tpositive ISM print was a pleasant surprise. The ADP estimate of \t\t\tprivate payrolls disappointed at -10k but our economists note ADP \t\t\thas been running lower than the official Bureau of Labor Statistics \t\t\tpayroll estimates. That said, our team maintains the +75k forecast \t\t\ton private payrolls as the stronger ISM employment index partially \t\t\toffsets the weak, but perhaps unreliable, ADP. Philadelphia Fed \t\t\tPresident Plosser said he would support further QE only if real \t\t\tdeflation risks arise, which he does not see currently. He also said \t\t\tthe Fed should not ease to solve the unemployment problem and Dallas \t\t\tFed President Fisher echoed this when he said more monetary easing \t\t\twould be akin to “pushing on a string.” Fisher said the ball is in \t\t\tthe fiscal, regulatory policy court but declined to say whether more \t\t\tfiscal stimulus is needed at this juncture. Neither official spoke \t\t\tof a potential double dip ahead. Fed vice-Chairman Donald Kohn, on \t\t\this last day in office, also noted that the decision to reinvest \t\t\tmaturing securities is not an automatic precursor to further easing \t\t\tand maintained the need to watch data. Ahead today, Jobless claims \t\t\tdata are due and Fed Chariman Bernanke will testify before the \t\t\tFinancial Crisis Inquiry Commission. EURUSD traded 1.2785-1.2814 and \t\t\tUSDJPY 84.08-84.56.<\/p>\n


\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Our team does not expect the ECB decision to yield any surprises and \t\t\twould highlight a couple of points to watch for during ECB President \t\t\tTrichet’s press conference. ECB Governing Council member Weber \t\t\talready discussed the possibility of extending the full allotment \t\t\trefinancing operations. Since bank recapitalization remains an \t\t\tissue, We could see a more formal decision on this soon. Q2 growth \t\t\twas strong but Trichet cautioned on the second half at his previous \t\t\tpress conference. While the stronger Q2 figures could augur better \t\t\toverall 2010 figures, it may not necessarily translate to an \t\t\timproved outlook for 2011.
\nGerman retail sales were worse than expected at -0.3%m\/m, 0.8%y\/y. \t\t\tThe manufacturing PMI was also confirmed at 58.2, in line with \t\t\texpectations, showing that growth remains on track in Germany, but \t\t\tthe rest of the Eurozone may struggle to keep pace. Eurozone \t\t\tmanufacturing PMI was also firm at 55.1, higher than the initial \t\t\trelease. Similar PMI releases across Europe were generally firm.
\n CHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Q2 GDP was stronger than expected at 0.9%q\/q (cons. 0.8q\/q), \t\t\t3.4%y\/y, supporting expectations that the SNB could move to a more \t\t\thawkish track. While CPI has tracked down recently, deflationary \t\t\trisks are not as prevalent as they were previously and continued \t\t\tgrowth should keep further SNB intervention at bay. \t\t\tRetail sales figures will be out later.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Australian trade balance was weaker than expected at A$1.88bln, \t\t\tour economists note that the figure is still healthy after June’s \t\t\trecord figure. However, they warn that given the rise in AUD \t\t\tcommodity prices and stronger AUD point to falling net volumes and \t\t\texports may subtract to Q3 GDP.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/strong> EURUSD BEARISH Trend is still bearish with focus on 1.2588 ahead of \t\t\t1.2434 Fibonacci support. Short-term resistance is defined at \t\t\t1.2933.
\nUSDJPY BEARISH Stalled above 83.60 trend low, move below the level \t\t\twould expose 79.75 key support. Short-term resistance is defined at \t\t\t85.91 intraday high.
\nGBPUSD BEARISH Sustained break of 1.5324 would favor a bearish move \t\t\ttowards 1.5125. Near-term resistance lies at 1.5475 ahead of 1.5713.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH Break of 1.0131 favors the extension of bearish trend \t\t\ttowards 0.9918 ahead of 0.9786. On the upside resistance holds at \t\t\t1.0265 ahead of 1.0466.
\nAUDUSD NEUTRAL Recovery clears 0.9080; need a break above 0.9222 to \t\t\tconfirm a bull trend. 0.8771 marks the key support level.
\nUSDCAD BULLISH Bullish pressure holds below 1.0680; break of the \t\t\tlevel would open 1.0853. Initial support is defined at 1.0473 ahead \t\t\tof 1.0248.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Defined a new trend low at 1.2852, a break here would \t\t\tleave little support till 1.2403. Near-term resistance comes in at \t\t\t1.3146.
\nEURGBP NEUTRAL 0.8363 and 0.8068 define the key near-term \t\t\tdirectional triggers.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Push below 105.44 would expose 100.00 next. Near-term \t\t\tresistance is defined at 111.11 ahead of 114.74.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Risk sentiment continues to find support as figures out of the US yesterday suggested some of the recent economic fears could prove overblown, especially ahead of Friday’s crucial payrolls report…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12605","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12605","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12605"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12605\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12605"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}