{"id":12587,"date":"2010-09-01T16:00:47","date_gmt":"2010-09-01T20:00:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=12587"},"modified":"2010-09-01T16:00:47","modified_gmt":"2010-09-01T20:00:47","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-104","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/09\/01\/forex-daily-market-commentary-104\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The rotation from the dollar into the other safe-havens continued as \t\t\tuncertainty on the economic outlook persists following several data \t\t\treleases and the latest FOMC minutes while the dollar performance \t\t\twas mixed against the rest of the G10. Equities closed flat and \t\t\tTreasury yields and old prices were lower at the time of writing. \t\t\tEURUSD traded 1.2625-1.2743, USDJPY 83.83-84.67. The FOMC minutes \t\t\tfrom August 10 more downside risk to the recovery than before, which \t\t\tmost investors had expected, and saw the MBS policy change as an \t\t\teffort to avoid passive tightening rather than a move toward easing. \t\t\tAlthough the minutes backed away from earlier deflation fears, the \t\t\toverall tone was dovish and cautious as, “members generally saw both \t\t\temployment and inflation as likely to fall short of levels \t\t\tconsistent with the [Fed’s] dual mandate….” Prior to the minutes, \t\t\tthe latest data was modestly positive. Conference Board consumer \t\t\tconfidence rose above expectations in August and most of the \t\t\timprovement came from the expectations component. The S&P\/Case-Shiller \t\t\tIndex y\/y figure increased more than anticipated but the index does \t\t\tlag changes in price trends. The Chicago and Milwaukee regional \t\t\tmanufacturing indexes weakened though they remained above 50 and \t\t\tinvestor focus now shifts to the August ISM Manufacturing release.<\/p>\n


\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Among Eurozone data releases, German unemployment fell by 17k, \t\t\tslightly less than expected and the unemployment rate was unchanged \t\t\tat 7.6%. Eurozone CPI was weaker at 1.6% and unemployment steady \t\t\t10.0%. Several final manufacturing PMIs are due and little change is \t\t\texpected.
\nWith concerns on financial institutions and sovereign financing \t\t\tpersisting in Europe, some extension of ECB unconventional measures \t\t\tcould be expected at this week’s ECB decision. But US data will \t\t\tlikely remain the driver for EURUSD this week depending on if data \t\t\tdivergences between the US and the Eurozone continue.
\n CAD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Q2 GDP figure was lower than expected at 2.0% annualized, which \t\t\thelped push USDCAD higher during the session. The Q1 figure was \t\t\trevised slightly lower but was still strong at 5.8%. Officials have \t\t\tcautioned the economy could slow down relative to Q1 but they \t\t\tbelieve the economy is on the right track. While USDCAD could remain \t\t\trange-bound in the near-term, medium-term fundamentals remain \t\t\tfavourable to the Canadian dollar.
\n AUD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The current account narrowed as the trade balance recorded the \t\t\thighest surplus since the early 1970s. Our Australian economics \t\t\tleave their Q2 GDP forecast at 1% with downside risk. The stronger \t\t\tpublic demand data largely offset the lower than expected net \t\t\texports contribution. While the ‘expenditure’ side of the GDP \t\t\taccounts continue to point to a circa \u00be% rise for Q2, the strong \t\t\tgains in real household incomes and corporate profits suggest \t\t\t‘income’ GDP – along with real ‘production’ GDP – should average up \t\t\tto a near 1% GDP print. There also appears compelling evidence that \t\t\tQ1 GDP’s print of 0.5% will be revised higher, to at least 0.8%.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/strong> EURUSD BEARISH Trend is bearish with focus on 1.2588 ahead of 1.2434 \t\t\tFibonacci support. Short-term resistance is defined at 1.2933.
\nUSDJPY BEARISH Approaches 83.60 trend low, move below the level \t\t\twould expose 79.75 key support. Short-term resistance is defined at \t\t\t85.91 intraday high.
\nGBPUSD NEUTRAL Move below 1.5324 would put odds in favor of bearish \t\t\ttrend. Near-term resistance lies at 1.5713 ahead of 1.5999.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH The pair eyes 1.0131; a break here would open up the \t\t\tway towards 0.9918. On the upside resistance holds at 1.0466 ahead \t\t\tof 1.0676.
\nAUDUSD NEUTRAL Model has turned neutral; 0.9222 and 0.8771 act as \t\t\tthe next bull and bear triggers respectively.
\nUSDCAD BULLISH Bullish pressure is mounting on 1.0680; break of the \t\t\tlevel would open 1.0853. Initial support is defined at 1.0473 ahead \t\t\tof 1.0248.
\nEURCHF BEARISH The cross continues to define fresh trend lows. Next \t\t\tsupport lies at 1.2742 ahead of 1.2403. Near-term resistance comes \t\t\tin at 1.3146.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Bearish pressure holds at 0.8142 ahead of 0.8068 key \t\t\tsupport; break of the level would expose 0.7974. Short-term \t\t\tresistance tested at 0.8282 with 0.8383 retracement level next.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Momentum is negative; the pair targets 105.44 with \t\t\tscope for 100.00 next. \t\t\t \t\t\tNear-term resistance is defined at 111.11 ahead of 114.74.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The rotation from the dollar into the other safe-havens continued as uncertainty on the economic outlook persists following several data releases and the latest FOMC minutes while the dollar performance was mixed against the rest of the G10…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12587"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12587\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}