{"id":12551,"date":"2010-09-01T07:56:25","date_gmt":"2010-09-01T11:56:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=12551"},"modified":"2010-09-01T07:56:25","modified_gmt":"2010-09-01T11:56:25","slug":"adp-non-farm-employment-change-on-tap-%e2%80%8e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/09\/01\/adp-non-farm-employment-change-on-tap-%e2%80%8e\/","title":{"rendered":"ADP Non-Farm Employment Change on Tap \u200e"},"content":{"rendered":"

Source: ForexYard<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

After the U.S. dollar corrected some of its gains yesterday, a new trading day, packed with significant \u200eeconomic publications is ahead. Most attention should be given to the U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment \u200eChange, which attempts to estimate Friday’s release of Non-Farm Payrolls. Current expectations are for a \u200epositive result, will the dollar erase yesterday’s losses?\u200e<\/p>\n

Economic News<\/h2>\n

USD – Dollar Weakens Despite Positive Consumer Confidence Report<\/h3>\n

The U.S. dollar fell against most of the major currencies during yesterday’s trading session. The dollar \u200ebegan yesterday’s trading with a sharp 100 pips loss vs. the euro, which was slightly corrected later on. The \u200edollar saw a mild drop against the Japanese yen as well.\u200e<\/p>\n

The dollar fell yesterday after the Institute for Supply Management Chicago said that U.S. business activity \u200egrown at a slower pace than expected. The business activity in the U.S. expanded this month at the \u200elowest rate this year as the business barometer dropped to 56.7 on August, the lowest since November, \u200efailing to reach expectations to 57.3. The dollar’s fell came despite a surprising positive release of the \u200eConsumer Confidence report. The Consumer Confidence is a survey of about 5,000 households which are \u200easked to rate their current and future economic conditions. The survey showed that the consumer \u200econfidence improved unexpectedly in August to 53.5, from 51.0 in July, well above expectations for 50.7. It \u200ecurrently seems that investors still have concerns regarding the growth of the U.S. economy, and as a \u200eresult the dollar is continues to weaken against the yen.\u200e<\/p>\n

Looking ahead to today, a batch of data is expected from the U.S. economy. The most significant news \u200ereleases looks to be the ADP’s prediction of this month Non-Farm Payrolls figures. The estimate is that the \u200eemployment condition has improved during the recent month. Such a result might correct some to the \u200edollar’s losses against the euro and the yen.\u200e<\/p>\n

EUR – Euro Strengthens On Positive Global Data<\/h3>\n

The euro soared today against most of its major counterparts. The EUR\/USD pair climbed over 100 pips \u200etowards the 1.2740 level during early trading, yet eventually closed the trading day around the 1.2685 level. \u200eThe euro gained about 100 against the British pound and about 50 pips versus the Japanese yen.\u200e<\/p>\n

The European currency strengthened yesterday as economic publications from the U.S. and the Euro-\u200eZone have eased concerns regarding a global economic slowdown. Report showed today that home \u200eprices in 20 U.S. cities rose more than expected in June from a year earlier. In addition, the U.S Consumer \u200eConfidence survey unexpectedly rose for the first time in three months. Positive data was published from \u200ethe Euro-Zone as well today. The European Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate showed that inflation in \u200ethe Euro-Zone grew by 1.6%, according to expectations. The inflation in the Euro-Zone grows in a stabile \u200epace for several months now, indicating that the European economies are stabilizing.\u200e<\/p>\n

The positive global data has increased risk-aversion in the market, and turned investors to look for risker \u200eassets, such as the euro. It seems that further positive signals of global economic recovery might boost \u200ethe euro further.\u200e<\/p>\n

As for today, the most significant economic release from the Euro-Zone looks to be the German Retail \u200eSales, which is scheduled for 06:00 GMT. Analysts have forecasted that retails sales in Germany slightly \u200erose in July. If the end result will be similar, the euro might extend its bullish trend today.\u200e<\/p>\n

JPY – Yen Continues To Strengthen Vs. The Majors<\/h3>\n

The Japanese yen rose today against most of the major currencies during yesterday’s trading. The yen \u200egained about 140 pips against the British pound. The yen also saw a 90 pips rise vs. the U.S. dollar on early \u200etrading.\u200e<\/p>\n

Positive data from the Japanese economy has supported the yen yesterday. The Average Cash Earnings \u200ereport, which measures that change in the total value of employment income collected by workers, rose \u200eby 1.3% on July, beating expectations for a 0.9% rise. In addition, the Housing Starts report showed that \u200ethe number of new residential buildings that began construction grew by 4.3% on July, reaching well \u200eabove expectations for a 2.5% rise. The positive figures have supported estimations that the Japanese \u200eeconomic recovery is advancing, and as a result boosted the yen.\u200e<\/p>\n

Looking ahead to today, no significant publications are expected from the Japanese economy. Traders are \u200eadvised to follow the major publications from the U.S. economy, and to follow U.S. and Japanese equity \u200emarkets. Traders should take under consideration that positive signals might increase risk-aversion, and as \u200ea result weaken the yen.\u200e<\/p>\n

OIL – Crude Oil Drops To $71.52 a Barrel<\/h3>\n

Crude oil dropped for the second consecutive day today. Crude oil fell about 250 pips during yesterday’s \u200etrading session. A barrel of oil was traded for around $74.15 during yesterday morning, and dropped to a \u200edaily low of $71.52 a barrel.\u200e<\/p>\n

Crude oil prices fell yesterday as investors are concerned that oil demand in the U.S. will recover during \u200ethe second quarter of the year, following a lower than expected consumption in the first quarter. The U.S. \u200eeconomy is the biggest oil consumer in the world, and recent reports have suggested that the U.S. \u200eeconomic recovery is slowing down. It seems that for as long that until the U.S. economy will provide clear \u200esignals of improvement, crude oil prices might continue to decline.\u200e<\/p>\n

As for today, the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories is scheduled for 14:30 GMT. Traders are advised to follow this \u200ereport, as its publication tends to have an instant impact on crude oil prices. Traders are also advised to \u200efollow the major publications from the U.S. economy, especially the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change \u200erelease.\u200e<\/p>\n

Technical News<\/h2>\n

EUR\/USD<\/h3>\n

The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating in the neutral territory. However, the 4-\u200ehour chart’s Slow Stochastic is indicating a fresh bullish cross suggesting that an upward correction might \u200etake place in the nearest time frame. When the upward breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears \u200eto be the preferable strategy. \u200e<\/p>\n

GBP\/USD<\/h3>\n

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The daily chart’s Slow \u200eStochastic provides us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4-hour chart do not provide a clear direction \u200eas well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today. \u200e<\/p>\n

USD\/JPY<\/h3>\n

The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the hourly and daily RSI, \u200esuggesting downward pressure. There also appears to be a fresh bearish cross on the 4-hour and daily \u200eSlow Stochastic, indicating that the next movement will likely be down. Going short might be a wise choice \u200etoday. \u200e<\/p>\n

USD\/CHF<\/h3>\n

There is a fresh bullish cross forming on the 4-hour chart’s Slow Stochastic, indicating bullish correction \u200emight take place in the nearest future. The upward direction on the weekly chart’s Momentum oscillator \u200ealso supports this notion. Going long with tight stops might be the right strategy today.\u200e<\/p>\n

The Wild Card<\/h2>\n

NZD\/JPY<\/h3>\n

The recent upward mobility of this pair has pushed most of its indicators into a downward corrective \u200eposition. With the RSI on the hourly and 4-hour charts showing over-bought, mixed with fresh bearish \u200ecrosses on these charts’ Slow Stochastic, an imminent downward correction may not be far off the mark. Forex traders can take advantage of this impending move by entering their short positions now and riding \u200eout the wave as it descends to a more stable price level. \u200e<\/p>\n

Forex <\/strong>Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a9 2006 by FxYard Ltd<\/p>\n

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By ForexYard – After the U.S. dollar corrected some of its gains yesterday, a new trading day, packed with significant \u200eeconomic publications is ahead. Most attention should be given to the U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment \u200eChange…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12551"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12551\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}