{"id":12459,"date":"2010-08-27T08:55:45","date_gmt":"2010-08-27T12:55:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/fx\/?p=12459"},"modified":"2010-08-27T08:55:45","modified_gmt":"2010-08-27T12:55:45","slug":"forex-daily-market-commentary-101","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/2010\/08\/27\/forex-daily-market-commentary-101\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Daily Market Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

By GCI Forex Research<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fundamental Outlook at 1400 GMT (EDT + 0400)<\/strong><\/p>\n

USD<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The dollar weakened ahead of the second estimate of Q2 GDP and Fed \t\t\tChairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole and risk sentiment \t\t\toverall was weak with equities slightly negative and the Dow Jones \t\t\tIndustrial Average settling below 10,000. Initial jobless claims was \t\t\tbetter than estimated at 473k though the trend is still higher and \t\t\tthe consensus estimate for GDP is at 1.4% annualized versus 2.4% in \t\t\tthe advance estimate, which was released at the end of July. The \t\t\tmuch anticipated Bernanke speech is due but investors have \t\t\tincreasingly questioned what, if anything, he can say to mollify \t\t\tworries on recent US data softness in between FOMC meetings. The Fed \t\t\tmight need further assistance from the fiscal side of things but it \t\t\twill be interesting to see if Bernanke announces any new monetary \t\t\tpossibilities beyond the ones that have already been discussed (i.e. \t\t\textending the “extended period” language, reducing interest on \t\t\treserves). The text of the speech should be released at 1400 GMT and \t\t\tno Q&A session is anticipated. Should the Bernanke speech pass \t\t\twithout much incident, we could see safe havens supported as \t\t\tinvestors may take that as a sign that further easing, which would \t\t\tbe risk-supportive, is not in the cards. \t\t\tEURUSD \t\t\ttraded 1.2651-1.2764, USDJPY 84.32-84.89.<\/p>\n


\nEUR<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Data divergences have been in favour of the Eurozone versus the US \t\t\tas of late but uncertainty on central bank policies have kept EURUSD \t\t\trange-bound this week. Eurozone M3 was as expected and Germany \t\t\tAugust CPI is expected to be flat. GfK consumer confidence came in \t\t\tslightly above expectations at 4.1 (cons. 4.0). While much of the \t\t\tdirection for the pair will come from the US, investors should bear \t\t\tin mind that fiscal tightening will keep the ECB on hold for quite \t\t\tsome time as well, and banking recapitalization concerns and \t\t\tsovereign financing will also provide some overhang for the Eurozone.
\n JPY<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

DPJ former Secretary-General and party heavyweight Ozawa will likely \t\t\tchallenge PM Kan for the leadership (and the Premiership as the DPJ \t\t\tstill commands a lower-house majority). Political uncertainty will \t\t\tlikely increase uncertainty and the policy deadlock, but given that \t\t\tJapanese investors’ traditionally respond to domestic-based risk \t\t\taversion with yen buying, this may not constitute a significant risk \t\t\tevent which could open up USDJPY upside. Japanese PM Kan noted that \t\t\the did not talk about intervention in a meeting with business \t\t\tleaders. However, he noted that cooperation between authorities \t\t\twould continue, and BoJ Governor Shirakawa will be attending the \t\t\tJackson Hole meetings this week.
\nNational CPI is expected to remain negative, which would keep \t\t\tpressure on the BoJ to implement further easing measures.<\/p>\n


\nCHF<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Consensus estimate for the Swiss KOF leading indicator is 2.20, \t\t\troughly in line with the July reading. Elevated KOF levels will \t\t\tsupport the Swiss franc as investors look towards the September \t\t\tpolicy meeting, where we expect some form of policy tightening, and \t\t\talso as they rotate among the safe haven currencies. The employment \t\t\tdata for Q2 2010 recorded a new all-time high in the number of \t\t\temployed.
\n
\nTECHNICAL OUTLOOK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/span><\/strong> EURUSD BEARISH Sell-off from 1.3334 found support at 1.2588, a break \t\t\there would expose 1.2434 with scope for 1.2152 next. Near-term \t\t\tresistance holds at 1.2933.
\nUSDJPY BEARISH Decline through 84.73 halted at 83.60, which lies \t\t\tahead of 79.75 key support. Near-term resistance is defined at 85.20 \t\t\tahead of 86.38.
\nGBPUSD NEUTRAL While resistance at 1.5713 holds, move below 1.5324 \t\t\twould put odds in favor of a negative trend. Next support lies at \t\t\t1.5125 ahead of 1.4906.
\nUSDCHF BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.0676 holds expect loses to \t\t\ttarget 1.0131 and 0.9918 next.
\nAUDUSD BEARISH Momentum is negative; initial support is defined at \t\t\t0.8663 ahead of 0.8531. Only a move above 0.9080 would hurt the \t\t\tnegative tone.
\nUSDCAD BULLISH While 1.0677 caps the upside initially, next \t\t\tresistance lies at 1.0853. Initial support lies at 1.0511 ahead of \t\t\t1.0248.
\nEURCHF BEARISH Defined a fresh trend low at 1.2972 clearance of \t\t\twhich will expose 1.2755 next. Near-term resistance at 1.3242 ahead \t\t\tof 1.3458.
\nEURGBP BEARISH Focus is on 0.8068 and 0.7974 support levels. \t\t\tShort-term resistance is defined at 0.8247 ahead of 0.8363.
\nEURJPY BEARISH Bearish pressure held above 104.72; breach of the \t\t\tlevel would expose 100.00, round number support. \t\t\t \t\t\tNear-term resistance is defined at 108.87 ahead of 111.11.<\/p>\n

Forex Daily Market Commentary<\/strong><\/em> provided by<\/em><\/strong> GCI Financial Ltd<\/strong><\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n

GCI Financial Ltd (\u201dGCI\u201d) is a regulated securities and commodities trading firm, specializing in online Foreign Exchange (\u201dForex\u201d) brokerage. GCI executes billions of dollars per month in foreign exchange transactions alone. In addition to Forex, GCI is a primary market maker in Contracts for Difference (\u201dCFDs\u201d) on shares, indices and futures, and offers one of the fastest growing online CFD trading services. GCI has over 10,000 clients worldwide, including individual traders, institutions, and money managers. GCI provides an advanced, secure, and comprehensive online trading system. Client funds are insured and held in a separate customer account. In addition, GCI Financial Ltd maintains Net Capital in excess of minimum regulatory requirements.<\/p>\n

DISCLAIMER: GCI\u2019s Daily Market Commentary is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and is not intended to be U.S.ed as investment advice. GCI assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The dollar weakened ahead of the second estimate of Q2 GDP and Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole and risk sentiment overall was weak with equities slightly negative and the Dow Jones Industrial Average…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12459\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/fx\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}