Large Speculator bullish bets fell to $17.5 billion on December 31st
The latest data for the weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday, showed that large futures traders and speculators cut back on their bullish bets of the US dollar to the lowest level since November.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $17.5 billion as of Tuesday December 31st, according to Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$1.42 billion from the total $18.92 billion bullish position that was recorded on December 24th, according to the calculations by Reuters that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The US dollar aggregate positions on December 31st dropped to the lowest level since November 19th when US dollar bullish bets equaled $17.1 billion.
Individual Currencies – Large Speculators Positions in Futures:
The non-commercial net positions for each of the individual currencies directly against the US dollar showed weekly increases for the British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar while there were weekly declines for the euro, Swiss franc, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso. See charts & data below.
Individual Currency Charts: Large & Small Speculator Positions vs Spot Price
EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures
| Date | Open Interest | Large Specs Net Positions | Lg Specs Weekly Change | Small Specs Net |
| 11/26/2013 | 243049 | -431 | -9342 | -20567 |
| 12/03/2013 | 253653 | 9312 | 9743 | -19881 |
| 12/10/2013 | 302100 | 15930 | 6618 | -18631 |
| 12/17/2013 | 230955 | 27923 | 11993 | -13470 |
| 12/24/2013 | 240206 | 32172 | 4249 | -12463 |
| 12/31/2013 | 242071 | 30589 | -1583 | -10160 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures
| Date | Open Interest | Large Specs Net Positions | Lg Specs Weekly Change | Small Specs Net |
| 11/26/2013 | 214443 | 391 | 2056 | 11653 |
| 12/03/2013 | 239371 | 18369 | 17978 | 17051 |
| 12/10/2013 | 255604 | 18429 | 60 | 18072 |
| 12/17/2013 | 191648 | 17825 | -604 | 15723 |
| 12/24/2013 | 198063 | 14420 | -3405 | 19912 |
| 12/31/2013 | 206886 | 22781 | 8361 | 22800 |
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Large Specs Net Positions | Lg Specs Weekly Change | Small Specs Net |
| 11/26/2013 | 236713 | -123202 | -10986 | -45377 |
| 12/03/2013 | 245167 | -133383 | -10181 | -43306 |
| 12/10/2013 | 262229 | -129711 | 3672 | -41266 |
| 12/17/2013 | 232743 | -130223 | -512 | -39860 |
| 12/24/2013 | 239160 | -143822 | -13599 | -41364 |
| 12/31/2013 | 232225 | -135228 | 8594 | -40970 |
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures
| Date | Open Interest | Large Specs Net Positions | Lg Specs Weekly Change | Small Specs Net |
| 11/26/2013 | 42421 | 4652 | 983 | 3936 |
| 12/03/2013 | 45862 | 6547 | 1895 | 6055 |
| 12/10/2013 | 64506 | 11998 | 5451 | 8165 |
| 12/17/2013 | 47367 | 11955 | -43 | 8316 |
| 12/24/2013 | 51131 | 11920 | -35 | 7118 |
| 12/31/2013 | 51139 | 10889 | -1031 | 6818 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Large Specs Net Positions | Lg Specs Weekly Change | Small Specs Net |
| 11/26/2013 | 129471 | -28780 | -12445 | -12222 |
| 12/03/2013 | 145767 | -41583 | -12803 | -14847 |
| 12/10/2013 | 160759 | -57514 | -15931 | -17916 |
| 12/17/2013 | 187136 | -65500 | -7986 | -16020 |
| 12/24/2013 | 149359 | -58432 | 7068 | -15677 |
| 12/31/2013 | 149037 | -57956 | 476 | -15983 |
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Large Specs Net Positions | Lg Specs Weekly Change | Small Specs Net |
| 11/26/2013 | 111673 | -33511 | 2251 | -11332 |
| 12/03/2013 | 121078 | -44311 | -10800 | -16225 |
| 12/10/2013 | 126620 | -45850 | -1539 | -17829 |
| 12/17/2013 | 113118 | -51653 | -5803 | -15114 |
| 12/24/2013 | 117884 | -54239 | -2586 | -17882 |
| 12/31/2013 | 120071 | -57414 | -3175 | -16660 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Large Specs Net Positions | Lg Specs Weekly Change | Small Specs Net |
| 11/26/2013 | 20919 | 10249 | -2227 | 1224 |
| 12/03/2013 | 18318 | 7639 | -2610 | 1077 |
| 12/10/2013 | 19953 | 8553 | 914 | 2141 |
| 12/17/2013 | 17939 | 5673 | -2880 | 1673 |
| 12/24/2013 | 18668 | 6456 | 783 | 1724 |
| 12/31/2013 | 18748 | 6707 | 251 | 1770 |
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures
| Date | Open Interest | Large Specs Net Positions | Lg Specs Weekly Change | Small Specs Net |
| 11/26/2013 | 127570 | 12463 | 2924 | 2783 |
| 12/03/2013 | 121461 | 8933 | -3530 | 1758 |
| 12/10/2013 | 155227 | 22530 | 13597 | 5499 |
| 12/17/2013 | 114614 | 15650 | -6880 | 5374 |
| 12/24/2013 | 123733 | 20178 | 4528 | 5022 |
| 12/31/2013 | 116803 | 15605 | -4573 | 5162 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)
See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Article by CountingPips.com – Forex News & Analysis
