The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large futures traders sharply extended their total bullish bets of the US dollar again last week. Total US dollar long positions have risen for three consecutive weeks and are now at the highest level since 2008 when Reuters started calculating total amount of positions, according to Reuters.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, increased their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $41.0 billion as of Tuesday May 21st. This was a rise from the total long position of $32.27 billion registered on May 14th, according to position calculations by Reuters that derives this total by the amount of US dollar positions against the combined positions of euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
What is the COT Report:
The weekly cot report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:
The individual currency speculator net positions saw an advance for just the Canadian dollar last week while the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar and the Mexican peso all had a declining number of net large trader contracts for the week.
Individual Currency Charts: (Please Click on Chart to Enlarge)
EuroFX: Large trader positions for the euro dropped sharply last week and fell for a third consecutive week. Euro contracts decreased to a total net position of -80,949 contracts in the data reported for May 21st following the previous week’s total of -46,921 net contracts on May 14th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EURO
| Date | Lg Trader Net | Change |
| 04/16/2013 | -29764 | 21094 |
| 04/23/2013 | -34275 | -4511 |
| 04/30/2013 | -30149 | 4126 |
| 05/07/2013 | -33533 | -3384 |
| 05/14/2013 | -46921 | -13388 |
| 05/21/2013 | -80949 | -34028 |
British Pound Sterling:
GBP: British pound spec positions declined last week for a third straight week and to the lowest level of 2013. British pound speculative positions declined last week to a total of -76,976 net contracts on May 21st following a total of to -65,355 contracts reported for May 14th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/16/2013 | -61975 | 7994 |
| 04/23/2013 | -60112 | 1863 |
| 04/30/2013 | -58607 | 1505 |
| 05/07/2013 | -63086 | -4479 |
| 05/14/2013 | -65355 | -2269 |
| 05/21/2013 | -76976 | -11621 |
Japanese Yen:
JPY: Japanese yen net speculative contracts also fell last week for third straight week and to the lowest overall position in 2013. Japanese yen positions decreased to a total of -95,186 net contracts on May 21st following a total of -88,407 net short contracts on May 14th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/16/2013 | -93411 | -15714 |
| 04/23/2013 | -79730 | 13681 |
| 04/30/2013 | -71127 | 8603 |
| 05/07/2013 | -78560 | -7433 |
| 05/14/2013 | -88407 | -9847 |
| 05/21/2013 | -95186 | -6779 |
Swiss Franc:
CHF: Swiss franc large speculator positions fell for a second straight week last week and declined to the lowest level of 2013. Net positions for the Swiss currency futures decreased to a total of -19,930 contracts on May 21st following a total of -15,410 net contracts reported for May 14th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/16/2013 | -3253 | 6761 |
| 04/23/2013 | 1179 | 4432 |
| 04/30/2013 | -8264 | -9443 |
| 05/07/2013 | -6235 | 2029 |
| 05/14/2013 | -15410 | -9175 |
| 05/21/2013 | -19930 | -4520 |
Canadian Dollar:
CAD: Canadian dollar positions improved last week for a fifth consecutive week after falling to a new low level for 2013 on April 16th. Canadian dollar positions improved to a total of -33,852 contracts as of May 21st following a total of -44,417 net contracts that were reported for May 14th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/16/2013 | -75913 | -4780 |
| 04/23/2013 | -71679 | 4234 |
| 04/30/2013 | -67848 | 3831 |
| 05/07/2013 | -51916 | 15932 |
| 05/14/2013 | -44417 | 7499 |
| 05/21/2013 | -33852 | 10565 |
Australian Dollar:
AUD: Australian dollar large speculator positions dropped sharply again last week to decline for an eighth consecutive week. Aussie speculative futures positions dropped to a total net amount of -32,409 contracts on May 21st after totaling -13,450 net contracts as of May 14th. This is the second week of negative Aussie large spec contracts after having been in positive territory since June 26, 2012.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/16/2013 | 53175 | -24704 |
| 04/23/2013 | 31257 | -21918 |
| 04/30/2013 | 30234 | -1023 |
| 05/07/2013 | 6630 | -23604 |
| 05/14/2013 | -13450 | -20080 |
| 05/21/2013 | -32409 | -18959 |
New Zealand Dollar:
NZD: New Zealand dollar large speculator bets decreased last week to fall for a third consecutive week. NZD contracts fell lower to a total of +17,782 net long contracts as of May 21st following a total of +23,216 net long contracts on May 14th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/16/2013 | 30808 | 5658 |
| 04/23/2013 | 27705 | -3103 |
| 04/30/2013 | 29050 | 1345 |
| 05/07/2013 | 28536 | -514 |
| 05/14/2013 | 23216 | -5320 |
| 05/21/2013 | 17782 | -5434 |
Mexican Peso:
MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts fell lower last week after increasing the previous week. Peso positions declined to a total of +136,863 net speculative positions as of May 21st following a total of +140,319 contracts that were reported for May 14th.
Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN
| date | Lg Trader Net | Change Weekly |
| 04/16/2013 | 151288 | 8746 |
| 04/23/2013 | 146911 | -4377 |
| 04/30/2013 | 138551 | -8360 |
| 05/07/2013 | 138444 | -107 |
| 05/14/2013 | 140319 | 1875 |
| 05/21/2013 | 136863 | -3456 |
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)
See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Article by CountingPips.com
