By CountingPips.com
The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that large currency speculators raised their overall US dollar positions back to a total long position last week after being short the previous week for the first time since September 2011.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, increased their total US dollar positions to being long by $1.5 billion on September 4th from a total short position of $441.7 million on August 28th, according to the CFTC COT data and calculations by Reuters which calculates the dollar positions against the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Individual Currencies:
CAD: Canadian dollar positions rose higher for a sixth consecutive week and are at the best level since May 1st. Canadian dollar positions rose to a total of 66,555 net long contracts as of September 4th following a total of 60,936 net short contracts that were reported for August 28th. The Canadian currency positions continue to be at the highest level since May 1st when long positions equaled 70,223 contracts.
The COT report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions as of the previous Tuesday. It can be a useful tool for traders to gauge investor sentiment and to look for potential changes in the direction of a currency or commodity. Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)
AUD: The Australian dollar positions declined for the second consecutive week last week after Aussie positions had risen to the highest level all year on August 21st. Aussie speculative futures positions fell to a total net amount of 62,439 long contracts on September 4th after totaling 78,072 net long contracts as of August 28th. Australian dollar contracts peaked recently on August 21st when long positions equaled 86,882.
NZD: New Zealand dollar speculator positions decreased for a second consecutive week following 11th straight weeks of rises. NZD contracts declined to a total of 11,401 net long contracts as of September 4th following a total of 14,229 net long contracts on August 28th.
MXN: Mexican peso speculative contracts dipped last week for a second straight week after surging to the highest level all year on August 21st. Peso positions decreased to a total of 90,881 net long speculative positions as of September 4th following a total of 94,626 long contracts that were reported for August 28th. Before the past two week’s decline, Peso positions were at their highest level since July 12, 2011 when long positions equaled 98,447 contracts.
EuroFX: Currency speculator sentiment for the euro dipped just slightly following two consecutive weeks of improvements that brought euro positions to their best level since April. Euro net short positions or bets against the currency edged up to 102,306 contracts on September 4th from the previous week’s total of 101,561 net short contracts on August 28th.
GBP: British pound sterling positions fell last week for a second consecutive week after improving for two straight weeks. British pound sterling speculative positions totaled 6,868 net short contracts on September 4th following a total of 1,968 net long contracts on August 28th. Last week’s level was the lowest since August 7 when speculators were short the pound sterling by 8,275 contracts.
JPY: Japanese yen speculative contracts increased for a second consecutive week following a sharp drop on August 21st. Japanese yen positions rose to a total of 24,007 net long contracts reported on September 4th following a total of 21,556 net long contracts on August 28th.
CHF: Swiss franc speculator positions fell after showing improvement for the previous two straight weeks. Speculator positions for the Swiss currency futures registered a total of 13,112 net short contracts on September 4th following a total of 11,461 net short contracts as of August 28th.
COT Currency Data Summary as of September 4, 2012
Large Speculators Net Positions vs. the US Dollar
EUR -102306
GBP -6868
JPY +24007
CHF -13112
CAD +66555
AUD +62439
NZD +11401
MXN +90881
