{"id":99831,"date":"2016-12-20T12:33:36","date_gmt":"2016-12-20T17:33:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=99831"},"modified":"2016-12-20T12:33:36","modified_gmt":"2016-12-20T17:33:36","slug":"how-to-get-a-firm-handle-on-golds-ups-and-downs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2016\/12\/how-to-get-a-firm-handle-on-golds-ups-and-downs\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Get a Firm Handle on Gold&#8217;s Ups and Downs"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-207103949\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">December 20, 2016<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><h3 style=\"margin-top: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Watch the yellow metal&#8217;s price pattern to anticipate key junctures <\/span><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"margin-top: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">By Elliott Wave International<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>[Editor&#8217;s Note: The text version of the story is below.]<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><span class=\"LimelightEmbeddedPlayer\"><script src=\"\/\/video.limelight.com\/player\/embed.js\"><\/script><object id=\"limelight_player_69304\" class=\"LimelightEmbeddedPlayerFlash\" data=\"\/\/video.limelight.com\/player\/loader.swf\" type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" name=\"limelight_player_69304\" width=\"480\" height=\"321\"><param name=\"movie\" value=\"\/\/video.limelight.com\/player\/loader.swf\" \/><param name=\"wmode\" value=\"window\" \/><param name=\"allowScriptAccess\" value=\"always\" \/><param name=\"allowFullScreen\" value=\"true\" \/><param name=\"flashVars\" value=\"playerForm=Player&amp;mediaId=f69f3f4c2b9a4d0a90868ed9fa18e9e6\" \/><\/object><script>LimelightPlayerUtil.initEmbed('limelight_player_69304');<\/script><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">*********<\/p>\n<p>Hardly anyone likes gold today.<\/p>\n<p>In the closing days of November, the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) registered a ten-day average of just 9.1% gold bulls. That was only the third time in the sentiment gauge&#8217;s 30-year history that such a low bullish reading was recorded.<\/p>\n<p>This headlines captures the negativity toward gold (gold-eagle.com, Nov. 16):<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 0.5in;\">Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Pattern Calls for Caution<\/p><div id=\"inves-3997739765\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>But, as we&#8217;ve shown on these pages again and again, financial markets often have a way of turning up just when pessimism becomes the most extreme.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, this happened with gold a year ago. Last December, large speculators such as hedge funds were so unenthusiastic about gold&#8217;s bullish prospects that they held their smallest net-long position in 12\u00bd years.<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s go back to our December 2015 <em>Elliott Wave Financial Forecast<\/em>, which showed this chart and said:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/Metals\/-\/media\/AE1B13E7D6E44B51959DB1D9EBCD6CC3.ashx\" alt=\"\" width=\"573\" height=\"717\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 0.5in;\">Gold prices are in the late stages of an ending diagonal, which, when complete, will finish a five-wave decline from the September 2011 peak at $1921.50. &#8230; Over the past week pessimism has grown more intense, which is consistent with an impending rally, the same message conveyed by the completion of a diagonal pattern.<\/p>\n<p>That forecast was published <strong>within hours<\/strong> of gold&#8217;s Dec. 3, 2015 low of $1046.20! In July, the price of the yellow metal rose to $1375.53, a 31% rally.<\/p>\n<p>By then, sentiment had turned decidedly bullish. Here are a couple of headlines:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>[Legendary Investor] Warns &#8220;Gold Will Go Higher Than Most People Can Imagine&#8221; (Zerohedge, June 27, 2016)<\/li>\n<li>Why is the gold price rising? Five forces driving the precious metal (July 15, The Telegraph)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here are the five reasons listed by The Telegraph for gold&#8217;s rise:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Brexit effect<\/li>\n<li>Interest Rates<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Dollar<\/li>\n<li>Eurozone crisis<\/li>\n<li>China&#8217;s demand<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That&#8217;s a perfect example of hindsight being 20\/20. When gold was approaching a bottom last December, no one saw the upcoming Brexit vote or other fundamentals as bullish factors. After the rally, the reason for it appeared &#8220;obvious.&#8221; This is why basing investment decisions on such &#8220;fundamentals&#8221; often results in disappointment.<\/p>\n<p>We take a different approach. We watch price patterns, which warn us of trend changes before they occur. This is from our July <em>Financial Forecast<\/em>, which said this about gold&#8217;s 6-month long rally:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 0.5in;\">[The current wave up] has now satisfied its minimum expectations.<\/p>\n<p>From the July high through Dec. 1, gold&#8217;s price declined 15%.<\/p>\n<p>The Wave Principle is not a crystal ball. Yet, when you watch price patterns and sentiment extremes &#8212; the true leading trend indicators &#8212; you can often spot gold&#8217;s key junctures well before other investors read about it in the news.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, we believe gold may be at such a juncture right now.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<table class=\"body\" style=\"border: solid 5px #EAEAEA; padding: 10px;\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\"><\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa652&amp;dy=aa122016&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/free-reports\/Introduction-to-the-Wave-Principle-Applied\">Get an Introduction to the Wave Principle Applied<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Learn how to apply the Elliott Wave Principle to your favorite markets. In this free 15-minute video, EWI Senior Analyst Jeffrey Kennedy explains how to take the Wave Principle and turn it into a trading methodology. You&#8217;ll learn the best waves to trade, where to set your protective stop, how to determine target levels, and more.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa652&amp;dy=aa122016&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/free-reports\/Introduction-to-the-Wave-Principle-Applied\"><strong>Access your free video now<\/strong><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<div>\n<p style=\"padding-top: 10px; border-top: solid 1px #CCCCCC;\"><em>This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline <a href=\"http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/r.asp?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa652&amp;dy=aa122016&amp;url=http:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/Metals\/How-to-Get-a-Firm-Handle-on-Golds-Ups-and-Downs\"><strong>How to Get a Firm Handle on Gold&#8217;s Ups and Downs<\/strong><\/a>. EWI is the world&#8217;s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"padding-top: 10px; border-top: solid 1px #CCCCCC;\">\n<p style=\"padding-top: 10px; border-top: solid 1px #CCCCCC;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Watch the yellow metal&#8217;s price pattern to anticipate key junctures By Elliott Wave International [Editor&#8217;s Note: The text version of the story is below.] ********* Hardly anyone likes gold today. In the closing days of November, the Daily Sentiment Index (trade-futures.com) registered a ten-day average of just 9.1% gold bulls. That was only the third [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99831","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99831"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99831\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99832,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99831\/revisions\/99832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99831"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99831"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99831"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}