{"id":99743,"date":"2016-12-18T12:29:32","date_gmt":"2016-12-18T17:29:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=99743"},"modified":"2016-12-18T12:29:32","modified_gmt":"2016-12-18T17:29:32","slug":"week-ahead-dow-jones-above-20000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2016\/12\/week-ahead-dow-jones-above-20000\/","title":{"rendered":"Week Ahead: Dow Jones above 20,000?"},"content":{"rendered":"
December 18, 2016<\/div>
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Article by ForexTime<\/a><\/p>\n

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Santa Claus seemed to have arrived early in 2016 and already delivered his gifts to investors. The Dow Jones industrial average rallied by more than 8% since November 9 elections, and the S&P 500 jumped 6%. However, Santa wasn\u2019t very kind to fixed income investors as U.S. yields rose across the curve, with 10-year and 2-year yields 45% higher since November 9. Meanwhile the U.S. dollar was by no doubt the king of currencies, and currently sitting at 14-year high. Any more gifts to be delivered the week ahead?<\/p>\n

Investors who decided not to go for holidays yet, are looking forward for the Dow to break above 20,000, which in percentage terms only requires 0.8% gains from Friday\u2019s close, and yes, it\u2019s easily achievable. Although I believe that the market has run a little ahead of itself, as long as there\u2019s no bad news, this momentum trade can record new tops. But for the rally to be justifiable on the longer run we require earning expectations to overshoot, and this is still missing from the equation. Wall Street analysts will have tough times to include Trump\u2019s fiscal plans in their earnings expectations models and probably the new president needs to over deliver on his promises to keep driving the rally, otherwise the strong dollar will start eating from multinational profits and the higher yields will begin to attract investors attention.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s little in terms of market moving events the week ahead. We\u2019ll have the chance to hear again from Fed\u2019s Chair Janet Yellen who will be delivering a speech at the University of Baltimore on the state of the job market, but we don\u2019t expect her to add any significant clues on monetary policy after last week\u2019s announcement.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile Bank of Japan will steal the show on December 20 although monetary policy is likely to remain unchanged. Earlier this year many had expected that the BoJ will announce a fresh round of QE, but now it seems unrequired after the Yen declined significantly against the dollar. Officials at central bank had always criticized the Yen strength and in August, Japan\u2019s finance minister commented that \u201cMy understanding is that there have been movements that are quite biased, one-sided and speculator-driven,\u201d but since then the Yen depreciated by about 18%. Is this going to be considered a biased one-sided move? Or its only considered to be on the upside?<\/p>\n

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Disclaimer: <\/strong>The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and\/or other investment advice and\/or an offer of and\/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and\/or a guarantee and\/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.<\/em><\/p>\n

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\"Forex-Time-Logo\"Article by ForexTime<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM)<\/strong> is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185\/12 www.forextime.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Article by ForexTime Santa Claus seemed to have arrived early in 2016 and already delivered his gifts to investors. The Dow Jones industrial average rallied by more than 8% since November 9 elections, and the S&P 500 jumped 6%. However, Santa wasn\u2019t very kind to fixed income investors as U.S. yields rose across the curve, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-99743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99743"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99743\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99747,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99743\/revisions\/99747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}