{"id":99465,"date":"2016-12-12T12:33:25","date_gmt":"2016-12-12T17:33:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=99465"},"modified":"2016-12-12T07:33:58","modified_gmt":"2016-12-12T12:33:58","slug":"how-to-predict-when-the-next-big-earthquake-will-hit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2016\/12\/how-to-predict-when-the-next-big-earthquake-will-hit\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Predict When the Next Big Earthquake Will Hit"},"content":{"rendered":"
December 12, 2016<\/div>
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By WallStreetDaily.com<\/u><\/a> \"How<\/p>\n

We have the ability to generally \u201cpredict\u201d earthquakes and \u201cwarn\u201d threatened populations after they start. What we need is a system to detect an event \u2013 days and weeks ahead of time.<\/strong><\/i><\/p>\n

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Here are two headlines, from last week alone:<\/p>\n

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\u201cMassive 7.8 Earthquake Shakes the Solomon Islands in Southwest Pacific Ocean.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cMagnitude 6.5 Earthquake Hits Indonesia, Killing Nearly 100.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Here\u2019s another one, from October:<\/p>\n

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\u201cEarthquake Faults Around San Francisco Are Dangerously Interconnected.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

And consider:<\/p>\n

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\u201cWatch What \u2018The Big One\u2019 on the San Andreas Fault Would Feel Like.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

So when are we going to get out in front and be able to not just predict or warn but detect these potential disasters before they occur?<\/p>

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As Masashi Hayakawa and Yasuhide Hobara note in an article published in Geomatics, Natural Hazards, & Risk, <\/em>earthquake prediction is defined according to long-term (10\u2013100 years), intermediate-term (one\u201310 years) and short-term (minutes, hours, days, and weeks) time scales.<\/p>\n

Seismology is focused on the long- and intermediate-term scale \u201cbecause they are mainly based on the geological studies of faults, historical records of seismicity, and recent instrumental data of seismology and geodesy,\u201d say Hayakawa and Hobara.<\/p>\n

This is the type of work that drives preparation against potential disaster in the form of structural requirements for new construction and upgrade projects in earthquake \u201chot spots\u201d such as Japan and California.<\/p>\n

The short-term scale is the most difficult.<\/p>\n

But we do have systems in place and under development that can \u2013 and will \u2013 give us minutes and hours.<\/p>\n

Since 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working on an \u201cearthquake early warning\u201d (EEW) system, based on systems in operation in seismic \u201chot spots\u201d around the world.<\/p>\n

Systems in Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Romania, China, Italy, and Taiwan are capable of sensing \u201ca large earthquake near its source and broadcast a warning of imminent strong shaking to more distant areas before the shaking arrives.\u201d<\/p>\n

Since 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey has been working on an \u201cearthquake early warning\u201d (EWW) system, based on systems in operation in seismic \u201chot spots\u201d around the world.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

These systems are \u201ctailor-made for the local system of faults,\u201d so they\u2019re not directly applicable to California, for instance, which has its own particular seismic profile.<\/p>\n

The USGS has upped its game lately.<\/p>\n

Last August, the agency announced $3.7 million in grants to six West Coast universities that will assist in transitioning the \u201cShakeAlert\u201d earthquake early warning system from the test phase into production.<\/p>\n

ShakeAlert was created by the USGS Advanced National Seismic System, \u201ca federation of national and regional earthquake monitoring networks throughout the country, including\u00a0networks in southern California, northern California, and the Pacific Northwest.\u201d<\/p>\n

The new USGS ShakeAlert investment will fund:<\/p>\n