{"id":98888,"date":"2016-11-29T15:57:00","date_gmt":"2016-11-29T20:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=98888"},"modified":"2016-11-30T19:18:01","modified_gmt":"2016-12-01T00:18:01","slug":"ig-finds-hope-for-investors-in-past-us-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2016\/11\/ig-finds-hope-for-investors-in-past-us-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"IG finds hope for investors in past US elections"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-1155646410\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">November 29, 2016<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><a href=\"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/articles-analysis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/senate-UK.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-98905\" src=\"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/articles-analysis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/senate-UK.png\" alt=\"senate-uk\" width=\"900\" height=\"704\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>IG has examined 95 years of indices trading to identify certain recurring themes across historical US elections<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Elections have traditionally led to stock market \u2018relief rallies\u2019, with the Dow Jones rising 6.4% on average in the following six months<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>A split congress has previously been positive for the S&amp;P 500, leading to average gains of 30.6%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Democrat claims that stock markets are statistically in favour of their party overlook surrounding macroeconomic events<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/articles-analysis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/SandP-500-unified-UK.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-98907\" src=\"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/articles-analysis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/SandP-500-unified-UK.png\" alt=\"sandp-500-unified-uk\" width=\"1000\" height=\"546\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ig.com\/uk\/us-presidential-election\/previous-elections-stock-indices\" target=\"_blank\">IG<\/a>, a global leader in online trading, has analysed the potential for stock market gains in light of presidential elections dating back to 1921.<\/p>\n<p>Stock markets are influenced more significantly by Federal Reserve policy than presidential, as well as by macroeconomic events beyond the control of commander-in-chief. The past 95 years, however, offer a few key principles which may guide investors looking to trade indices around the election.<\/p>\n<p>IG\u2019s research has identified a historical tendency towards stock market rallies in the wake of election results, irrespective of the winning party. They found that the Dow, for instance, rose an average of 6.4% within the first six months of presidency.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/articles-analysis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Dow-six-months-after-UK.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-98908\" src=\"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/articles-analysis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Dow-six-months-after-UK.png\" alt=\"dow-six-months-after-uk\" width=\"1200\" height=\"753\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s encouraging news, too, for investors lamenting the loss of a proven presidential candidate: two thirds of newly-elected presidents have had a positive effect on both the Dow and S&amp;P 500 in their first six months.<\/p>\n<p>IG\u2019s research also highlights the influence of Congress\u2019 party affiliation on past stock market response. IG found that:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 gained an average of 30.6% in the four years since 1929 when a Democrat won presidency but Republicans controlled at least one chamber of Congress<\/li>\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 gained an average of 21.4% in the 34 years since 1929 when Democrats won both presidency and the two chambers of Congress<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>IG is quick to caution against drawing a link between stock market success and party politics, however. To do so would disregard macroeconomic events over which presidents and their policies have had little to no control.<\/p><div id=\"inves-230711232\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>Democratic success has often been down to good fortune \u2013 surrounding matters such as oil, defence spending and international growth \u2013 rather than fiscal policy. Citing the 227% returns of Bill Clinton\u2019s presidential tenure as a prime example, IG undermines the notion that historical precedent suggests the stock market favours one party over the other.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/articles-analysis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/representatives-UK.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-98906\" src=\"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/articles-analysis\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/representatives-UK.png\" alt=\"representatives-uk\" width=\"900\" height=\"704\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>By\u00a0IG:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>IG is a global leader in online trading, providing fast and flexible access to over 10,000 financial markets \u2013 including shares, indices, forex, commodities and binaries.<\/p>\n<p>Established in 1974 as the world\u2019s first financial spread betting firm, IG\u2019s aim is to become the default choice for active traders globally. It is an award-winning multi-platform trading company, the world\u2019s No.1 provider of CFDs* and a global leader in forex, and it now offers an execution-only stockbroking service in the UK, Ireland, Germany, Austria and the Netherlands.<\/p>\n<p>It is a member of the FTSE 250, with offices across Europe, Africa, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and the US, where it offers limited risk derivatives contracts via the Nadex brand.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IG has examined 95 years of indices trading to identify certain recurring themes across historical US elections &nbsp; Elections have traditionally led to stock market \u2018relief rallies\u2019, with the Dow Jones rising 6.4% on average in the following six months &nbsp; A split congress has previously been positive for the S&amp;P 500, leading to average [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-98888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98888","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98888"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98888\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":98963,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98888\/revisions\/98963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98888"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98888"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98888"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}