{"id":98055,"date":"2016-11-14T07:37:24","date_gmt":"2016-11-14T12:37:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=98055"},"modified":"2016-11-14T07:37:24","modified_gmt":"2016-11-14T12:37:24","slug":"coffee-technical-analysis-weaker-brazilian-real-weighs-on-coffee","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2016\/11\/coffee-technical-analysis-weaker-brazilian-real-weighs-on-coffee\/","title":{"rendered":"COFFEE: Technical Analysis &#8211; Weaker Brazilian real weighs on coffee"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-1975259026\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">November 14, 2016<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p>By <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">IFCMarkets<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Weaker Brazilian real weighs on coffee<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Brazilian real slumped almost 8% as US dollar strengthened in the aftermath of US presidential elections. This caused significant decline in global <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/trading-conditions\/commodities\/coffee\">coffee prices<\/a>. Will the downward retracement persist?<\/p>\n<p>Coffee rose in price by 50% in recent 7 months on drought and expected lower crops. Brazil accounts for about one third of global coffee production. its GDP slumped 3.8% in Q2 2016 on an annual basis. Brazilian Central Bank added $750mln to the economy this week which failed to give strong support to real. Brazil\u2019s association of coffee exporters Cecafe reported exports of green coffee rose in October to 2.89mln 60-kg bales from 2.68mln in September. Additional negative came from Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association. Previously it forecasted coffee crops to fall 20-25% in 2016\/17, but last week said they will fall just 10-20%. Vietnam accounts for around 20% of global coffee crops.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"float: none;\" src=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/uploads\/images\/11-11-2016.png\" alt=\"Coffee\" width=\"660px\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"emailSummary\">On the daily chart <b>Coffee: D1<\/b> is correcting down after strong growth. Its further decline is possible in case Brazilian real continues weakening and in case the global crops outlook is to be revised up.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"emailSummary\">\n<li><b>Parabolic<\/b> gives signal to sell.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/bolinger-bands\">Bollinger bands<\/a> have widened a lot which means higher volatility. They are tilted downward.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/ntx-indicators\/rsi\">RSI<\/a> is below 50 but is far from the oversold zone, no divergence.<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/ntx-indicators\/macd\">MACD<\/a> gives bearish signals.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The bearish momentum may develop in case <b>Coffee<\/b> falls below the Friday low, the last fractal low and the 1st Fibonacci level at 161. This level may serve the point of entry. The initial stop-loss may be placed above the 2-year high, last fractal high and Parabolic signal at 179. Having opened the pending order we shall move the stop to the next fractal high following the Parabolic and Bollinger signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit\/loss ratio to the breakeven point. The most risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop-loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop-loss level at 179 without reaching the order at 161, we recommend cancelling the position: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.<\/p><div id=\"inves-1494129456\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"emailSummary\" style=\"margin-top: 15px !important;\">Summary of technical analysis<\/h2>\n<table style=\"border: solid 1px black;\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\"><b>Position<\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\">Sell<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\"><b>Sell stop<\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\">below 161<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\"><b>Stop loss<\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\">above 179<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Market Analysis provided by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">IFCMarkets<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By IFCMarkets Weaker Brazilian real weighs on coffee Brazilian real slumped almost 8% as US dollar strengthened in the aftermath of US presidential elections. This caused significant decline in global coffee prices. Will the downward retracement persist? Coffee rose in price by 50% in recent 7 months on drought and expected lower crops. Brazil accounts [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-98055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98055","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98055"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98055\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":98068,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98055\/revisions\/98068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98055"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}