{"id":96077,"date":"2016-09-28T07:18:34","date_gmt":"2016-09-28T11:18:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=96077"},"modified":"2016-09-28T07:18:34","modified_gmt":"2016-09-28T11:18:34","slug":"usdcad-forex-us-canadian-dollar-technical-analysis-september-28-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2016\/09\/usdcad-forex-us-canadian-dollar-technical-analysis-september-28-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"USDCAD: Forex US Canadian dollar Technical Analysis September 28, 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"
September 28, 2016<\/div>
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By IFCMarkets<\/a><\/p>\n

Bank of Canada may loosen monetary policy<\/p>\n

Canadian dollar<\/a> slumped to a 6-month low. On USDCAD chart it looks like growth. Lower oil prices and bank of Canada\u2019s statement supported such a trend. Will Canadian dollar continue weakening?<\/p>\n

The victory of Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in first round of TV debate as declared by CNN agency, could also have a negative effect at Canadian dollar. Market participants believe Democrats are more interested in Fed rate hike. In case their candidate Hillary Clinton wins, the Fed rate may approximate the one set by Bank of Canada which is being 0.5%. Meanwhile the Canadian dollar will become less appealing to investors. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said on Monday the Bank will take additional steps to reach the 2% inflation target. This August it fell to the 10-year low of just 1.1%. On such data and statements by Canadian policymakers the chances for the Fed rate cut in mid-2017 rose from 20% to 50%. This may become yet another threat for Canadian dollar. Rate cut looks reasonable given weaker economic data. Canada\u2019s GDP fell 1.6% year on year in Q2 2016. Current account shows deficit of C$19.9bn. Raw hydrocarbons account for about quarter of Canada\u2019s exports so potential decline in global oil prices may have a negative effect on Canadian dollar. Unofficial data came out on Tuesday that OPEC member did not agree on oil output freeze in Algeria. The matter will be further discussed on OPEC November meeting this year. This week the Canadian GDP for July will come out on Friday, the outlook is moderately negative.<\/p>\n

\"USDCAD\"<\/p>\n

On the daily chart USDCAD: D1<\/b> has been rising for 5 months already and is struggling for returning to the previous uptrend. Monetary easing by Bank of Canada and lower oil prices may push the Canadian dollar further lower. On USDCAD chart it will look as growth.<\/p>\n