{"id":95258,"date":"2016-09-07T09:35:51","date_gmt":"2016-09-07T13:35:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=95258"},"modified":"2016-09-07T07:36:15","modified_gmt":"2016-09-07T11:36:15","slug":"is-going-green-going-up-in-smoke","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2016\/09\/is-going-green-going-up-in-smoke\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Going Green Going Up in Smoke?"},"content":{"rendered":"
September 7, 2016<\/div>
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By WallStreetDaily.com<\/u><\/a> \"Is<\/p>\n

Solar power has never been cheaper.<\/p>\n

Prices for distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems installed atop residences declined by 5% in 2015. Prices for smaller nonresidential systems fell by 7%, and they were down 9% for larger nonresidential systems.1<\/sup> Utility-scale systems were 12% cheaper in 2015 than they were in 2014.2<\/sup><\/p>\n

That\u2019s according to two separate reports from the U.S. Department of Energy\u2019s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory released in late August.<\/p>\n

And early numbers for the first half of 2016 indicate prices are still falling in most markets.<\/p>\n

But when we discuss solar power, it\u2019s still mostly all about potential.<\/p>

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Consider that in 2013, the world\u2019s total final energy consumption, based on numbers compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, was 549.3 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2012, equal to about 580 exajoules (XJ).3<\/sup><\/p>\n

Now think about the fact that the theoretical potential, based on calculations made by Sandia National Laboratories, of solar power \u201crepresents more energy striking the Earth\u2019s surface in about 1\u00bd hours than worldwide energy consumption in 2001 from all sources combined.\u201d<\/p>\n

Further, over the course of about five days, the planet is struck by an amount of solar energy equal to all the energy stored in the Earth\u2019s proved reserves of oil, coal and natural gas.4<\/sup><\/p>\n

As Peter Diamandis of SingularityHub notes: \u201cIf humanity could capture one part in 1,000 (1\/10th of 1%) of the solar energy striking the Earth \u2014 just one part in 1,000 \u2014 we could have access to six times as much energy as we consume in all forms today.\u201d5<\/sup><\/p>\n

Solar is \u2014 far and away \u2014 the highest-potential source of renewable energy. And it will likely be a critical part of efforts by the U.S. and China \u2014 the world\u2019s two biggest emitters of carbon dioxide blamed by an overwhelming consensus of scientists for climate change \u2014 to meet their respective goals under the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n

But it remains a volatile short-term investment despite the vast possibilities for its long-term impact.<\/p>\n

Most of the recent market trouble is the result of rapid capacity expansion by makers of PV panels and other equipment, with lower costs on one hand bringing grief to investors on the other.<\/p>\n

Over the past year, the Guggenheim Solar ETF<\/strong> (TAN) is down 26.6%, roughly tracking the 28.8% decline for the MAC Global Solar Energy Index it\u2019s designed to follow.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not much better for the Market Vectors Solar Energy<\/strong> (KWT), which is off 23.7% over the trailing 12 months.<\/p>\n

As for individual companies, SunEdison Inc.<\/strong> (SUNEQ) filed for bankruptcy in April 2016 and is basically worthless.<\/p>\n

SolarCity Corp.<\/strong> (SCTY) is down 61.8%, while SunPower Corp.<\/strong> (SPWR) has shed 54.3%.<\/p>\n

The brightest star in the domestic space is First Solar Inc.<\/strong> (FSLR), with a loss of just 16.5%.<\/p>\n

Hong Kong-based GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd.<\/strong> (GCPEF) and Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd.<\/strong> (Hong Kong: 0968) have fared much better, with a loss of 3.2% and a gain of 31.2%, respectively.<\/p>\n

China-based Trina Solar Ltd.<\/strong> (TSL), JA Solar Holdings Ltd. <\/strong>(JASO), and JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd.<\/strong> (JKS) are still enjoying the Middle Kingdom\u2019s massive build-out of solar capacity, though their efforts to ramp up production of PV panels are only adding to what\u2019s already a global glut.<\/p>\n

The Chinese solar market has, thus far, enjoyed the fruits of the Communist Party of China\u2019s 13th Five-Year Plan. That plan included a goal to increase solar capacity by 15\u201320% per year through 2020, which would more than triple China\u2019s overall solar capacity, to 143 gigawatts.6<\/sup><\/p>\n

Already the world\u2019s leading solar power market, China has 43.2 GW of capacity. Germany is No. 2, with 38.4 GW, and the U.S. is third, with 27.8 GW.7<\/sup><\/p>\n

Utility-scale solar \u2014 which in recent years has accounted for nearly two-thirds of overall capital investment8<\/sup> \u2014 is getting closer and closer to cost parity with conventional forms of electricity generation.<\/p>\n

And in time, we may even live to experience the \u201cpost-scarcity\u201d utopias imagined by contributors to the Star Trek<\/em> universe, where energy is free, a human right essential to progress.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, there will be many ups and many downs. If you have the stomach for a lot of volatility, the payoff should be substantial.<\/p>\n

Get Smart<\/h2>\n

One of our favorite concepts around these parts is making \u201cold things new.\u201d In fact, we devote a segment to that idea every Friday.<\/p>\n

Today, I\u2019d like to point you in the direction, as I often do, of a post by Shane Parrish at his indispensable blog FarnamStreet.com. It\u2019s about Isaac Watts, a writer known for Christian hymns including \u201cJoy to the World.\u201d<\/p>\n

He was also a big influence on another great mind, Michael Faraday, who was instrumental in establishing what we now know as the scientific method.<\/p>\n

According to Shane Parrish<\/strong><\/a>,<\/p>\n

Watts was a well-educated Nonconformist (in the religious sense<\/strong><\/a>, not the modern one) who, along with his hymn writing, published a number of books on logic, science and the learning process, at a time when these concepts were only just starting to grab\u00a0hold as a dominant ideology, replacing the central role of religious teaching.<\/p>\n

Watts\u2019 book\u00a0The Improvement of the Mind<\/strong><\/em><\/a> was an important contribution to the growing\u00a0body of work\u00a0emphasizing the\u00a0importance of critical thinking and rational, balanced inquiry, rather than adhering to centuries of dogma. If, as Alfred North Whitehead\u00a0once\u00a0pronounced, modernity\u2019s progress\u00a0was\u00a0due to the \u201cinvention of the method of invention,\u201d Watts and his books (which became textbooks in English schools, including Oxford) can easily be credited with helping push the world along.<\/p>\n

Because \u201csometimes we forget how useful the old wisdom can be.\u201d<\/p>\n

Smart Investing,<\/p>\n

David Dittman
\nEditorial Director, Wall Street Daily<\/i><\/p>\n

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1<\/sup> Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, August 2016<\/a><\/p>\n

2<\/sup> Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, August 2016<\/a><\/p>\n

3<\/sup> U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)<\/a><\/p>\n

4<\/sup> BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2016<\/a><\/p>\n

5<\/sup> Peter Diamandis, \u201c3 Big Trends Shaking Up the Energy Industry.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

6<\/sup> Bloomberg News<\/a><\/p>\n

7<\/sup> Richard Martin, \u201cChina Is on an Epic Solar Power Binge.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n

8<\/sup> Solar Energy Industries Association<\/a><\/p>\n

The post Is Going Green Going Up in Smoke?<\/a> appeared first on Wall Street Daily<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By WallStreetDaily.com Solar power has never been cheaper. Prices for distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems installed atop residences declined by 5% in 2015. Prices for smaller nonresidential systems fell by 7%, and they were down 9% for larger nonresidential systems.1 Utility-scale systems were 12% cheaper in 2015 than they were in 2014.2 That\u2019s according to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-95258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95258"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95258\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":95267,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95258\/revisions\/95267"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}