{"id":93619,"date":"2016-07-28T13:55:49","date_gmt":"2016-07-28T17:55:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=93619"},"modified":"2016-07-28T13:55:49","modified_gmt":"2016-07-28T17:55:49","slug":"insiders-are-secretly-selling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2016\/07\/insiders-are-secretly-selling\/","title":{"rendered":"Insiders Are Secretly Selling"},"content":{"rendered":"
July 28, 2016<\/div>
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ByBy Chris Vermeulen<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n
\"stock-market-cycle\"<\/a><\/div>\n
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A Cycle Top In The Stock Market Next Month<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

It was \u201cPanic Buying\u201d that pushed the Dow Jones and the SPX Indices to record highs. To be sure there is trouble brewing in this rally.\u00a0 Smart money has left the stock market, as the charts at the end of this article will display!<\/p>\n

While Wall Street insiders appear to know that something is seriously amiss with the economy, no one is warning the retail investor.<\/p>\n

The SPX continues to develop and complete its Broadening Topping Pattern. The next trend is downwards!\u00a0 We are NOT currently in a trending mode\u2026so tread lightly during these choppy times.<\/p>\n

What Emotion Is Driving The Market Now?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

CNN\u2019s Fear & Greed Index tracks seven indicators of investor sentiment.<\/p>

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Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n

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<\/a>\r\n\t Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p>

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<\/a>\r\n\t Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p>

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It\u2019s displaying that the markets are way too frothy at the\u2019 current reading of 86. It is important to note that this is a contrarian indicator, meaning when everyone is bullish and buying. Consequently, the market should be close to topping out\u2026and falling in value.<\/p>\n

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As the markets are pushing higher, investors tend to become warier by nature. This often leads to the markets climbing the proverbial \u201cwall of worry\u201d. Are investors missing out on the opportunity of higher prices?<\/p>\n

This Is Classic Negative Divergence<\/strong><\/h2>\n

I believe the market is topping near these levels, because of the divergence between the Dow Industrials and the Transports.\u00a0 The Industrials have made a new all-time record high, but the Transports have not.<\/p>\n

One of the many near-term indicators I am watching pertains to Dow Theory. It is one of the more visible core tenets of Dow Theory.\u00a0 Moreover, it\u2019s important\u00a0to see price confirmation (directionally) from both the Dow Jones Industrial Average<\/strong> (DJIA) and Dow Jones Transportation Average<\/strong> (DJT). The Industrials\u00a0reached new all-time highs, while the Transports have not.\u00a0 The Russell 2000 (IWM) have NOT confirmed this high either, confirming there is a broad weakness in stocks. The Russell 2000 typically leads stock market rallies and selloffs.<\/p>\n

The market trend is UP when both forge higher highs. The market trend is DOWN when both forge lower lows. A \u201cnon-confirmation\u201d is present when only one forges a higher high, but other makes lower lows.<\/p>\n

The Volatility Index VIX recently dropped to a multi-year low.\u00a0 It is now trading at levels where it was last August 2015, before it exploded to 40. In fact, a few days ago, there was a good article talking about the put\/call options ratio and VIX<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and how they are both at extremes \u2013 pointing to a significant correction in the next couple weeks.<\/p>\n

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Another Chart You Need to View<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Helicopter Money<\/strong><\/h2>\n

During the last couple of weeks, gold prices have been in a corrective wave. However, this pattern calls for a continued uptrend to begin within the next couple of weeks.<\/p>\n

Japan has promised to buy One Trillion Yen worth of new government debt\u2026and perhaps even begin the \u201cHelicopter Money\u201d plan of direct government debt monetization going forward.<\/p>\n

There are two events that will occur within 36 hours of each other this tomorrow, July 27th, 2016 and Friday, July 29th, 2016:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wednesday, July 27th, 2016 \u2013<\/strong> FOMC meeting ends with \u201cFedlines\u201d announced at 2:00 pm EDT. Expect no rate changes!<\/p>\n

Friday, July 29th, 2016 \u2013<\/strong> The Bank of Japan meets and releases its latest QE plans. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that there were still \u201cvarious tools available\u201d for monetary policy to spur growth.<\/p>\n

A Reuters\u2019 poll showed 85 percent of analysts expect the BOJ to ease on July 29th, 2016, alongside the fiscal spending boost Abe is set to announce this month.<\/p>\n

In Japan, where government bond yields have fallen below zero, and faith in \u201cAbenomics\u201d is flagging, gold sales are soaring.<\/p>\n

It is not unreasonable to expect the same here in the US between now and November 2016\u2026and beyond.<\/p>\n

Tracking Insider Activity Matters<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Insider behavior matters because research based on real-time signals has shown that a properly modeled picture of insider actions can provide the most accurate reflection of the prospects for the company, industry, economic sector, or even the stock market in general, going forward.<\/p>\n

This makes perfect sense from an intuitive perspective. Corporate insiders possess all the necessary skills and characteristics that one could use to describe the \u201csuccessful\u201d investor. A couple days ago I did talk in detail about how company executives disguise poor earnings numbers through the share buybacks<\/a> we have seen the past year.<\/p>\n

The chart and tables listed below are tough to read but the heading above each chart explains what each chart is telling us what insiders are doing with their money.<\/em><\/p>\n

Daily Insider Buying Amount Is Down Sharply for 2016<\/strong><\/p>\n

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HUGE Insider SELLING of Oil, Gas And Pipeline Companies<\/strong><\/p>\n

HUGE Insider SELLING of Internet Providers\/Services\/Technologies<\/strong><\/p>\n

HUGE Insider SELLING of Large Conglomerate Companies<\/strong><\/p>\n

HUGE Insider SELLING of Real Estate Based Companies\/Funds<\/strong><\/p>\n