{"id":82073,"date":"2015-12-07T07:00:25","date_gmt":"2015-12-07T12:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=82073"},"modified":"2015-12-07T08:21:02","modified_gmt":"2015-12-07T13:21:02","slug":"short-term-trading-idea-fx-gbpusd-bear-speculation-development-on-previous-ideas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2015\/12\/short-term-trading-idea-fx-gbpusd-bear-speculation-development-on-previous-ideas\/","title":{"rendered":"Short-term Trading Idea FX GBP\/USD \u2013 Bear Speculation: Development on Previous Ideas"},"content":{"rendered":"
December 7, 2015<\/div>
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By\u00a0Vladislav Antonov, Alpari<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Trading opportunities for currency pair:<\/em><\/strong> Draghi flipped the dollar pairs. Bull divergence has formed on the daily and there\u2019s a hammer on the weekly. If the sellers don\u2019t manage to make ground this week, the rate will shift back to 1.5310 as part of a correction. The target is 1.4560. There\u2019s no avoiding the correction at the moment. The recoil must be used to open new short positions. Over the short term, make purchases, but don\u2019t wade in with large volumes against the trend.<\/em><\/p>\n

Background:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

After the ECB meeting and NFP came out, I decided to make an addition to the idea I made on 30th<\/sup>November<\/a>. Last Monday the pound\/dollar was trading around 1.5030. Since I relied on the monthly graph in the review, I set the target at 1.4560.<\/p>\n

The pound\/dollar was down to 1.4849. A scenario where we were to see a fall would have been cancelled out if we\u2019d have seen the weekly candle close above 1.5340. The price didn\u2019t rise above 1.5340, so the target is still on. However, what\u2019s on the horizon has become uncertain.<\/p>\n

The pound\/dollar restored to 1.5158 on Thursday. The active closing of short positions on the euro and pound was facilitated by the ECB\u2019s decision and Draghi\u2019s press conference. Market participants expected a more aggressive stance with regards to a loosening of monetary policy from the Europeans.<\/p>\n

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Daily GBP\/USD<\/p>

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The pound\/dollar has been trading in a sideways since May this year. The Bank of England is in no rush to increase their interest rates, so representatives of the bank haven\u2019t changed their rhetoric and the pound is staying under pressure.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s now very difficult to give an assessment of what\u2019s going on. The pound is still in a bear trend. Moreover, the weekly and daily graphs have seen inverted candle patterns form on them. The daily candle for Thursday has closed Wednesday\u2019s candle.<\/p>\n

If we make different downward channels, we can see that the risks of a pound strengthening to 1.5380 are up. I don\u2019t think that the pound is set to strengthen sharply, since the euro\/pound\u2019s fate rests with the euro bulls (see graph below).<\/p>\n

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Weekly EUR\/GBP<\/p>\n

Before the ECB meeting, the euro\/pound fell to 0.6981 and after the meeting is rebounded to 0.7250. The euro\/dollar renewed by 440 points and the pound\/dollar did its best by rising 220 points. A double bottom or a triangle is forming on the cross. In any case, it\u2019s not up to the bulls for the pound. Whilst they\u2019re selling pound in the cross, the pound\/dollar will slowly rise.<\/p>\n

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Weekly GBP\/USD<\/p>\n

A hammer has formed on the weekly. If the sellers don\u2019t manage anything this week, we\u2019ll be heading back to 1.5310 as part of a correction.<\/p>\n

Source: alpari.com, “Short-term Trading Idea FX GBP\/USD \u2013 Bear Speculation: Development on Previous Ideas<\/a>“<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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By\u00a0Vladislav Antonov, Alpari Trading opportunities for currency pair: Draghi flipped the dollar pairs. Bull divergence has formed on the daily and there\u2019s a hammer on the weekly. If the sellers don\u2019t manage to make ground this week, the rate will shift back to 1.5310 as part of a correction. The target is 1.4560. There\u2019s no […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-82073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82073","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82073"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82073\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":82074,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82073\/revisions\/82074"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82073"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82073"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82073"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}