{"id":79965,"date":"2015-10-22T08:39:46","date_gmt":"2015-10-22T12:39:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=79965"},"modified":"2015-10-22T08:39:46","modified_gmt":"2015-10-22T12:39:46","slug":"ecb-rate-decision-and-press-conference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2015\/10\/ecb-rate-decision-and-press-conference\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference"},"content":{"rendered":"
October 22, 2015<\/div>
\r\n<\/div><\/div>
By\u00a0OANDA<\/em><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
As the ECB approaches the one-year anniversary of its long-awaited bond buying program, the eurozone finds itself back in deflation and investors are once again looking to the central bank to provide more monetary stimulus and offer a lift to the region.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u201cMore stimulus could come in the form of an extension to the current program beyond next September,\u201d says Craig Erlam, Senior Currency Analyst for OANDA. \u201cAn increase in the number and variety of bonds it buys, or even another interest rate cut, which is something Mario Draghi has previously suggested is no longer an option.\u201d<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u201cWhile it would be understandable if the ECB pulled the trigger at today\u2019s meeting, the market is not expecting anything just yet so we will instead be looking for a clue as to when it will come.\u201d<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
EURUSD<\/b><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The euro has been fairly steady against the dollar so far this week in anticipation of today\u2019s event.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u201cIt has been well supported against the dollar for much of this year as the markets have increasingly priced out a Fed rate hike,\u201d comments Erlam. \u201cThe euro has also emerged as a perceived safe haven, or risk-off trade, which has lifted it to higher levels than the ECB and eurozone members would ideally like.\u201d<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u201cWhile central banks have committed to not taking exchange rates into consideration when making their decisions, the negative inflation in the eurozone currently does give the ECB a viable reason for easing again. Especially as the elevated euro is likely to weigh further on this.\u201d<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Erlam says that if Draghi hints at more QE or a rate cut at today\u2019s press conference then the pair could fall quite aggressively, taking it through the ascending trend line \u2013 7 August<\/span><\/span> lows \u2013 and begin a move back towards 1.11, where it found support throughout September.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u201cIf Draghi shrugs off the need for further stimulus then we could see it head back into the resistance region between 1.14 and 1.15.\u201d<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
UK Retail Sales Smashes Expectations<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
UK retail sales far exceeded expectations in September, which despite being driven by one-off factors \u2013 notably the extra bank holiday and rugby world cup – gave a strong lift to the pound.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u201cThese factors aside, the numbers were very encouraging especially as they showed that purchases by volume are continuing to grow at a good rate, particularly in discretionary goods,\u201d says Erlam. \u00a0\u201cThis is evidence of what the Bank of England has alluded to previously that the additional disposable income from lower oil prices will act as a stimulus for the economy. The strong growth in wages on top has also been a welcome additional, on top of lower inflation.\u201d<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
GBPUSD<\/b><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Cable responded very positive to the data but was unable to break out of the trading range it has found itself within for a little over a week now.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\u201cThe pair has found strong resistance to the upside at 1.55 while 1.5410 to the downside has offered constant support. We\u2019ve had a retracement in the pair since the release and we could now see it push on back towards those highs. If we see it break through here, it could find resistance around 1.5570 but the next key level would be 1.5650, the highs from September,\u201d Erlam says.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
For a look at all of today\u2019s economic events, check out our economic calendar.\u00a0www.marketpulse.com\/economic-events\/<\/a><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice, an inducement to trade, or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all.\u00a0 Ensure you fully understand all of the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Losses can exceed investment.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0OANDA As the ECB approaches the one-year anniversary of its long-awaited bond buying program, the eurozone finds itself back in deflation and investors are once again looking to the central bank to provide more monetary stimulus and offer a lift to the region. \u201cMore stimulus could come in the form of an extension to the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-79965","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79965","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=79965"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79965\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79966,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79965\/revisions\/79966"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=79965"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=79965"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=79965"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}