{"id":77066,"date":"2015-08-18T20:20:36","date_gmt":"2015-08-19T00:20:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=77066"},"modified":"2015-08-18T20:20:36","modified_gmt":"2015-08-19T00:20:36","slug":"crude-oil-works-in-mysterious-ways","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2015\/08\/crude-oil-works-in-mysterious-ways\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Oil Works In Mysterious Ways"},"content":{"rendered":"
August 18, 2015<\/div>
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But there is one solution to staying ahead of oil’s trend changes — Elliott wave analysis <\/span><\/h3>\n

By Elliott Wave International<\/span><\/h3>\n

You know the expression “God works in mysterious ways”?<\/p>\n

Well, according to an August 6 CNBC article, the price action of one financial market — i.e., crude oil — has out-mystified even God himself. Or, rather, the well-heeled star of the oil world, Andy Hall — a.k.a. “God Trader.”<\/p>\n

According to CNBC, Hall’s oil-focused commodity hedge fund plunged 17% in July, its second-biggest monthly loss ever. And one that left the fund “$500 million poorer.”<\/p>\n

In a letter to investors, Hall admitted failing “to anticipate a sudden market shift that roiled crude,” and wrote:<\/p>\n

“Last month was brutal for most commodities and anyone investing in them.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

No argument here: July was<\/i> a “brutal” month, as crude oil prices crashed 21% for their biggest monthly decline since the 2008 financial crisis.<\/p>\n

And, yes — many oil experts (despite their God-like reputations) failed to anticipate the roiling “market shift.” The reason why they failed to see it coming, though, may surprise you.<\/p>

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Here’s the thing: From its March 2015 low to June high, oil prices had soared 40%-plus to enjoy their strongest rally in six years. Not to mention a positive fundamental backdrop including strong demand and escalated violence in the Middle East, led by protests in Libya and conflict in Yemen.<\/p>\n

From a mainstream perspective, oil’s downside looked overdone, as this bullish May 6<\/b> news source affirms:<\/p>\n

“Global demand continues to surprise to the upside with data showing no signs of slowdown despite a pick-up in prices… Bulls are in control of the market.<\/b>” (Reuters)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Looking at that bullish backdrop of “market fundamentals,” there was simply no way to have foreseen the opposite scenario — namely, oil’s imminent reversal. From the viewpoint of Elliott wave analysis, however, oil’s reversal was quite plain to see. In fact, our June 2015<\/b> Elliott Wave Theorist<\/i> set the stage for just such a move:<\/p>\n

“The price of oil has been stunningly volatile, but — unlike the stock market — it has consistently responded to our wave interpretations and extremes of sentiment…<\/p>\n

“Figure 14 marks our predictions and updates prices. On a near term basis<\/b>, the latest rally is now nearly the size of the rally of early 2014. The ‘No Bottom in Sight’ articles have stopped appearing, and the Daily Sentiment Index (courtesy trade-futures.com) has hit 86%. The rally should be about over.”<\/b><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Let’s be honest. We’re all human. There’s no such thing as omnipotence in the world of trading or market-forecasting. Elliott wave analysis is not about 100% certainties. But it is about identifying the most likely<\/i> turning points in advance — not by reading the news, but by reading the Elliott wave patterns unfolding on the price charts themselves.<\/p>\n

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In a new FREE report<\/a><\/b> titled “Peak Oil — and Other Ways Crude Oil Fooled Almost<\/i> Everyone<\/b><\/a>,” we show you how Elliott wave analysis has remained one step ahead of not just the July sell-off, but the major peaks and lows that have occurred since oil’s all-time 2008 high near $150 a barrel.<\/p>\n

If you’re already our free Club EWI member, click here to get instant access to the full report, absolutely free.<\/a><\/p>\n

Or, take a minute to join the free online Club EWI community. And with your new password, read the “Peak Oil” report anytime you want — 100% free!<\/a><\/p>\n

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Crude Oil Works In Mysterious Ways<\/strong><\/a>. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But there is one solution to staying ahead of oil’s trend changes — Elliott wave analysis By Elliott Wave International You know the expression “God works in mysterious ways”? Well, according to an August 6 CNBC article, the price action of one financial market — i.e., crude oil — has out-mystified even God himself. Or, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-77066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77066"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77066\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":77067,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77066\/revisions\/77067"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}